Posted on 03/27/2023 8:07:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We’re now into the second year of the war in Ukraine, and while support for Ukraine remains strong (if not support for endless military aid to them) we’re reaching the point where virtually everyone wants to see an end to the fighting. Or at least that’s what most of them say in public. The Wall Street Journal has reached the conclusion that Ukraine’s allies see a way that the war could be brought to an end. Or multiple ways. But the problem as they describe it, however, is that nobody has a specific plan to make it happen. Much hope rests on an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring, but even with all of the increasingly powerful military arms and equipment Zelensky continues to receive, few believe that he will be able to deliver enough of a punch to finish the job. (Subscription required)
Western leaders are beginning to have a clearer vision of how they hope the war in Ukraine will end. What is missing is any plan to make it happen.
The hope in Washington and European capitals is that a Ukrainian counteroffensive—boosted by Western tanks and other fresh weaponry—will punch a hole in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory this spring.
In theory, that gives Kyiv’s forces such a battlefield advantage that Russian President Vladimir Putin is nudged into peace talks where the Kremlin cedes at least the territory it has taken since the invasion in February 2022. Then Ukraine is free to anchor its future in the west, and a defeated and diminished Mr. Putin can face the wrath of his own people.
The scenario described above relies on a number of assumptions and is lacking in key specifics. It assumes a Ukrainian spring counteroffensive of ferocious proportions that “punches a hole” in the Russian lines at the eastern end of the country. But the Ukrainians have already punched several holes into Russian-held territory. That hasn’t seemed to deter Vladimir Putin at all and he continues to send conscripts into the fray while blasting the countryside with rockets.
Mention is made of “western tanks and other fresh weaponry.” That would certainly add some punch to Ukraine’s capabilities, but the delivery of any significant number of tanks still appears to be well in the future, possibly not until next year. And almost certainly not quickly enough for a spring offensive. And Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of suggesting a ceasefire where he gives back even the new land Russia has conquered over the past year.
Perhaps that is why the WSJ analysis suggests that the far more likely path will involve “a war of attrition that lasts until one side is so defeated or exhausted that it calls a halt without realizing its ultimate aims.” This is clearly a reference to Ukraine since there is no scenario where the Russian Federation is “defeated” unless Ukraine plans on invading Russian territory, likely triggering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. And what are Ukraine’s “ultimate aims” in this scenario? Ejecting the Russian forces from all of its territories, of course. Or at least all of the territory it controlled prior to the invasion.
It’s also worth noting that the WSJ points out that the “war of attrition” scenario would almost certainly be measured in years, not weeks or months. How long will the patience (not to mention the pocketbooks) of Ukraine’s allies last? Yes, Joe Biden and most of the swamp dwellers in Washington continue to say “as long as it takes.” But what if it takes years?
The WSJ then raises the prickly question of what should be done about Putin even if the war does shut down in some fashion.
There is broad agreement that Ukraine ought to be given the means to deter a future Russian invasion, either as part of NATO or in some kind of pact with the alliance.
But French President Emmanuel Macron and some allies have said they are wary of humiliating Russia and want the West to offer Ukraine security assurances that Russia can live with. Others instead want to see Russia’s military permanently degraded.
It’s a rare day when you’ll hear me say this, but Macron is probably making a valid point. If Putin is “humiliated” too much on the world stage, he will become increasingly likely to do something erratic. And as far as making Ukraine part of NATO to deter future attacks goes, has everyone forgotten that talk of Ukraine potentially joining NATO was one of Putin’s key complaints in the first place?
Everyone quoted in the article seems to agree that Putin believes that time is on his side. The Prime Minister of Poland notes that the United States (at least as long as Joe Biden is in charge) will refuse to allow Ukraine to fall. But he continues by saying that he is more worried about his Western European partners and friends “because they are less patient.” When he says something like that, we should probably pay attention.
I’ve tried to game this situation out in my head more times than I can count. And it’s becoming increasingly clear (at least to me) that there’s one reason that nobody is proposing a comprehensive solution that ends this war with Ukraine achieving “victory.” It’s because no such solution exists. And if that’s the case, a more realistic plan will be required and that may mean that Russia doesn’t walk away empty-handed.
biden is brain-dead and has been for years. All the other men couldn’t decide what dresses to wear to such an event.
There was war in Ukraine when Obama was President. Not when Trump was President. There was war there again when Biden was President. The weapons industry didn’t like it when Trump was President. Trump was causing peace to break out all over. The blood and money started flowing again under Biden...not that Biden would have anything to do with corruption and bribes and Ukraine and what not...
The war is NATO’s attempt at regime change in Russia. In the meantime, our Deep Staters (Biden and co) are enriching themselves off of ‘foreign aid’.
Biden’s handlers don’t want the war to end.
It’s horrible, but they have cold water running through their power-hungry veins.
Americans are the most propagandized population on the planet.
- The crisis in Ukraine is the West’s fault.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/24483306
- The history of the U.S. in Ukraine since WWII
https://mronline.org/2023/01/04/on-the-influence-of-neo-nazism-in-ukraine/
- when East and West Germany reunited (with resultant NATO expansion), the U.S. and other Western leaders made a deal with Gorbachev, that if the USSR did not push back on German reunification, then NATO would not expand eastward into areas such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland.
- along comes Bill Clinton, who pushes NATO expansion into Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland and the Bear is further provoked.
- Obama stages coup in Ukraine 2014, which removed a duly elected president.
https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy
- Following the coup, the Ukrainian army proceeds to murder thousands of ethnic Russians in the eastern Donbass region, despite the Minsk Agreement and other attempts at peace.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions
- surprise surprise Biden presses NATO expansion into Ukraine with further provocations by Sweden and Finland joining NATO, which is currently under way.
- Biden destroys the Nordstream 2 pipeline and blames it on Russia. The first time the U.S. has attacked the major infrastructure of an ally (Germany). A further major provocation.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
- just imagine if the Chinese CCP conducted similar actions along the Canadian and Mexican borders. Would we accept Chinese military bases with nukes along our borders? This is what Putin was forced to deal with when Biden threatened NATO expansion into Ukraine and other countries.
- Russia, China, and a number of other major nations refuse to participate in the western (U.S. led) globalism movement. Putin is standing in the way. Is the U.S. on the right side of this war? Depends on the color of your sunglasses. Whatever the case, let there be no doubt we (the U.S.) crapped the mess kit on this one.
I
RE: The war is NATO’s attempt at regime change in Russia.
Why can’t it be thought of a Russia’s attempt at regime change in Ukraine?
the Russians are
the conervatives of this country
liberals just want to kill everybody
RE: the Russians are the conervatives of this country
I’ve spoken to many consrvatives of this country who don’t want us to get involved at all in that war.
We should not have been involved to begin with. The only winning move is not to play.
It is actually not that hard.
1) Ramp up energy production in the US. (Messaging, with law behind it)
2) Tax European imports in direct relation to their failure to meet NATO defense spending requirements.
3) Exit the START treaty and get serious about nuclear testing. (Meet Russia at the Poker table again)
4) Put a 100% Tax on all Chinese imports and reestablish US domestic supply chains
5) Tell China you are going to fix our SS problems by devaluing their holdings because of the leak out of Wuhan China.
6) Freeze funding for Ukraine and tell Europe this is now their problem.
7) Tell Russia and China if they want to negotiate on 3 and 4 we are all ears following a cease fire in Ukraine.
(Oh.... and fire all the DEI folks in the military so Russia and China knows you are serious about military readiness again along with step 1)
Do these things in that order and you can have a cease fire in 6 weeks, to make it hold you are going to have to marginalize all the progressives in the media, state department wackos and intelligence agency politicos who walked us into this so the rest of the world knows we are a serious county again. (The rest of the world is going to have to see that we hold people in power accountable)
I know how to end it quickly in with a little trouble at all. Simply cutt off Zelensky from any weapons and money and watch his little Empire of graft die on the vine.
May Ukraine prevail
NATO wanted a regime change so they, along with our CIA (Nueland) Overthrew the Ukraine in 2014 and made it look like a people’s uprising (Color revolution). They installed foreigners in the Ukraine government and NATO began building an army in the Ukraine to take on Putin. Recently, Angela Merkel admitted publicly that the only reason they agreed to Minsk protocols was to buy NATO time to build up the army in the Ukraine to fight Putin. It’s a proxy war.
So they knew what Putin’s red-line was (threats to Russian sovereignty) and when they got an army 600 K strong in the Ukraine, they crossed the redlines to provoke Putin.
Only the gun carrying soldiers are Ukrainian. Those believing Russia was fighting the Ukraine itself were in for a surprise when the conduct of the war, all planning and command above soldier level was NATO. The combined NATO resources in all respects used Ukrainian soldiers as proxies because none of the NATO nations wanted to take on Russia directly.
NATO has ‘burned through’ Ukrainian soldiers and infrastructure without hesitation because those NATO nations don’t actually have flesh in the game - it’s ‘just’ Ukrainians they are using as canon fodder.
The ‘narrative’ is that the Ukraine was minding its own business and was viciously attacked. Wrong - that’s the optics. NATO is behind this and NATO is losing - they don’t care if Putin eliminates every last power grid, road, bridge or Ukrainian. NATO wants to win without actually fighting itself.
oh look, there’s still an area on Putin’s ass that you forgot to kiss
Re; So they knew what Putin’s red-line was (threats to Russian sovereignty) and when they got an army 600 K strong in the Ukraine, they crossed the redlines to provoke Putin.
And Putin was stupid enough to cross it.
Not ONE country in NATO is interested in invading much less occupying Russia.
What did Putin accomplish by invading Ukraine vis a vis NATO?
All he did was in effect EXPANDED NATO ( Finland just entered NATO, and Sweden will probably be next ).
Had Putin taken the bait (if indeed it was ) and continued to negotiate, and refused to be provoked into this unnessary war that has already killed a displaced hundreds of thousands ( both Ukranians and Russians ), we would not be seeing what we’re seeing now — A DISASTER.
There will be no peace, until Moscow is unwilling to bombard Ukraine.
Your post is now a roll call for FReeper mental cases to check in. To squawk up and be counted.
Their only complaint is that Putin’s ass is too ragged from cancer injections. This post is now a roll call for FReeper mental cases to check in. To squawk up and be counted.
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