Posted on 03/21/2023 3:00:37 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Is China heading for a total collapse: political, economic and demographic? Conventional wisdom says no way. It boasts a massive military and an iron grip on its people, and owns a whopping $870 billion in U.S. debt.
What’s more, American consumers are addicted to its goods. Apple makes its smartphones there. Take a look at the clothes in your closet. Where are they made these days? Thought so.
While that’s no recipe for demise, some people would argue that China will soon be hanging on by a thread. That includes geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, whose new forecast makes a case few would otherwise consider.
Zeihan raised eyebrows in a January interview with Joe Rogan, in which he predicted the People’s Republic would collapse in 10 years. Rogan, though no stranger to controversy, was taken aback.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
It won’t be that long.
Zeihan on Yahoo. That confirms it. He’s a spook.
That being said, he does have interesting points on demographics.
Whats the batting average on these “Famed” talking heads? Peter might be right but I wouldn’t put any money on it.
I don’t know about “collapse” (he doesn’t define it) but China is definitely headed towards a reckoning between arrogant, stupid central planning schemes and dictates, communist complete social control - and human nature.
Then again, to a lesser degree, so is the USA.
> Zeihan on Yahoo. That confirms it. He’s a spook.
A good part of his income comes from making “strategic” presentations to TLAs. Also, he’s got books to sell.
I've always felt the same. He's kind of appeared out of nowhere, mouthing the projections of the deep state, without having done the many years of serious academic work and media, like a Nail Ferguson or Charles Murray.
He's a lot more like a Max Boot or Bill Kristol. Always around, yet with few clear means of support
But that’s after the total destruction caused by climate change. Ask Al Gore and Greta.
Friend of mine who was one of the highest ranking political appointees in govt with a lot of knowledge on these things doesn’t think they will make it through the summer without collapsing—and the guy who said this is not a doomer type by any stretch.
If President Trump were still President, I would say it would be possible. I do not think that Biden wants to kill his cash cow.
OK, I’ve read some of the comments that tend to support either the author or his viewpoints.
My opinion is that a regime as huge as the Chinese commies will grasp an anything to keep from imploding, which could mean putting their huge military complex into operation with a war. Regardless of their strict control of the population or potential economic collapse, this could do the trick to patch things up.
One thing I never understood was why we went ChiCom with all of our manufacturing outsourcing when there was a cheap labor source south of the border. Most Mexicans have good work ethic if they can find a job. Just think, putting the Mexicans to work which would improve their lifestyle. There would be fewer cartels and minimal illegals flowing over the border. This is not too late. Doing it now could help the commies implode.
I remember when the media hot shots all scoffed at the idea of the USSR collapsing.
Unfortunately there is a problem with what you said and suggest as it makes TOO MUCH SENSE. And from what I hear, read and see common sense has gone out the window and is in short supply instead graft, hypocrisy and greed have taken its place I just don’t see a very bright future for this once great country.
Is this from the same people who told us we were all going to die by 2001 because of “global warming”?
Ditto that.
There is a report that they discovered a deposit of gold worth estimated three trillion dollars. Might keep them going for some time.
“Is this from the same people who told us we were all going to die by 2001 because of “global warming”?”
There is no shortage of people predicting all sorts of imminent doom and demise. :-)
For a while, quite a few US factories did move to Mexico or move at least some operations there. However, China was willing to operate factories for many years at break even or a loss, to "break" competition in the West, and they also built on a massive scale: Friends of mine who'd visited manufacturers all over the world would then go to, say, Chinese cold-forging (of steel) factories and come back awed.
I somewhat agree about China not likely "collapsing" (a word used far too often on YouTube!), but a decline is likely be coming. Their demographics are very bad, and, the culture is not well disposed at all toward immigrants, except, interestingly, Westerners with good skills. But with China turning increasingly authoritarian, attracting those Westerners could be even tougher than it already is. (My brother lived in China briefly and after several months he was telling me "I have to get out of here!")
I don't think a war will help them. The costs would be enormous, and their demographic problem worsened. It might create some "patriotism" for a while, but, it is unlikely to be economically advantageous. Where would they be able to destroy more manufacturing than they themselves would lose?
The most damage China could do in one move would be to destroy TSMC in Taiwan. But that would hurt themselves badly. TSMC's 1st plant in AZ should be running by sometime in 2024, and another by 2026. Micron is doing the plunge with $40 billion committed to more US production, too. Indeed, this is one area where Biden has done some good, although the regs are still onerous enough to slow even more progress.
“is likely coming”
Nope,that won’t happen. The USSR collapsed only because the only thing going for them,economically,was vodka and caviar. OTOH,soon China will be the world’s biggest economy.
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