Posted on 03/06/2023 5:34:15 AM PST by marcusmaximus
You spelled it wrong. But, yeah, I understand your point. Not sure I agree…but we’ll see.
You keep a close eye on this area, so I have a question.
Russia has satellites, drones, manned flights, and boots-on-the-ground reconnaissance plus counter-battery radar in Ukraine, yet they have failed to remove a single Himar.
The wily Ukrainians are clearly on the ball.
For one thing, look for the pattern of good information or bad information over the past year.
Readers of Western sources have had a much more accurate big picture of how the war has been going and how, why, when, who, and with what.
Where are all the embedded CNN reporters with the troops at the front? There are none because the truth must be inconvenient.
At least later in the war if not sooner, very well-trained draftees.
There are supposed to be reporters at the front in Bakhmut, I am waiting to come across a NYTs article that was issued today.
In today’s digital world real time reporting can be done via satellite without having to worry about internet connections.
So yes, there is no reason why CNN or any other western reporting outfit cannot give live as-it-happens coverage of major battles, refugees, Ukrainian conquests of Russian equipment and troops and much more.
What they would actually be witnessing is a deadly stalemate where countless Uke troops are being slaughtered while holding positions rank with the smell of the dead. They will not be showing the elite Uke troops trained by western armies, as they are all dead or otherwise out of commission.
What they will film are the very young and old Ukrainians that have minimal training and are literally scared to death while they are picked off by drones, precision missiles and artillery without ever seeing any real Russian soldiers.
Now much of that same probably goes for the Russians too, but to a lesser scale.
And I am not pro-Putin or pro-Russian. I have deep sympathy for the average Ukrainian citizen. What I am is pro-American and believe a European war needs to be fought and paid for by Europeans. We have enough problems with out southern border to be trying to pick a fight with Russia or China.
Yesterday the Kyiv Independent reported from near the frontline about the bad situation for the Ukrainian troops fighting there:
Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: ‘Our troops are not being protected’
Russia’s relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths. But multiple defenders of this embattled city in Donetsk Oblast feel that they are in a similar boat, according to interviews with more than a dozen soldiers currently fighting in or around Bakhmut.
During their brief visits to the nearby town of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian infantrymen told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being thrown into the front line meat grinder to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones and tactical information.
“We don’t get any support,” says a soldier named Serhiy, who has been fighting on the front lines in Bakhmut, sitting down with his friend, also named Serhiy, for a conversation in a small cafe in the Kostiantynivka market. Both men are in their 40s but one of them is a bit older than the other.
The soldiers lack about everything that would support their defense:
They say that Russian artillery, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers are often allowed to strike Ukrainian positions for hours or days without being shut down by Ukrainian heavy weapons. Some complained of poor coordination and situational awareness, allowing this to happen or making it even worse.
Mortarmen spoke of extreme ammunition scarcity and having to use weapons dating back to World War II. Drones that are supposed to provide critical reconnaissance information are also scarce and are being lost at very high rates in some parts of the battlefield.
All this leads to terrifying casualties of both dead and wounded. "The battalion came in in the middle of December… between all the different platoons, there were 500 of us," says Borys, a combat medic from Odesa Oblast fighting around Bakhmut. "A month ago, there were literally 150 of us."
“When you go out to the position, it’s not even a 50/50 chance that you’ll come out of there (alive),” says the older Serhiy. “It’s more like 30/70.”
The soldiers describe the Russian operation as small reconnaissance followed by artillery fire. This is repeated again and again until it has reached the desired result. The very reasonable application of this tactic is why I disregard claims of 'waves or Russian cannon fodder storming forward' or of 'high Russian losses'. They are obviously nonsense:
The older Serhiy says that the enemy likes to send a team of three or four expendable foot soldiers to attack and make the Ukrainians expose themselves by shooting at them. At that point, the more elite forces zero in on the defenders’ position.
Once they begin exchanging fire, the Ukrainians are struck with heavier weapons like Russian mortars and rockets from Grad multiple launch rocket systems or BMP infantry fighting vehicles and BTR armored personnel carriers with machine guns.
“They get the positions where we are, establish the coordinates, then they hit us from seven to nine kilometers out with mortars,” as well as from closer by with grenade launchers, says the older Serhiy. “They wait for the house to fall so we have to jump out. The building catches fire and then they try to finish us off.”
“Their birds come out and they chase us with fire,” adds the younger Serhiy, referring to Russian UAVs, like quadcopters and Orlan-10 fixed wing drones that spot distant heavy weapons. “They hit accurately.”
As Russians destroy more and more buildings, Ukrainians keep losing more places where they can reliably take cover. Borys the medic says people have been lost when their entrenched positions collapsed from heavy Russian fire, suffocating them.
“I’ll put it like this, we should get our people out because if we don’t take off, then in the next few weeks, it’s going to be bad,” says Oleksandr. A mortarman named Illia agrees that Bakhmut is “practically encircled.”
For lack of ammunition there is no Ukrainian counter artillery fire. Infantry fighting vehicles are held back from the front. The little trained Territorial Brigades are send in at night to be killed the next morning:
Multiple soldiers say Bakhmut troops are barely given enough time to learn to shoot a rifle – sometimes their training is just 2 weeks, before they’re dropped into the hottest parts of the most intense current battle of the war. They would have preferred for troops to get a minimum of two or three months of training before being deployed to such a hot spot.
“Two weeks’ live training and they’re sent here. You can’t do that,” says the older Serhiy. “Or it’s a person who once served in the army, how long ago was that? Obviously they forgot everything.”
“We were promised that we wouldn’t be sent to the zero line right away, that at first we’d be sent to the second or third line,” he continues. “And then we came here in the middle of the night and they immediately sent us to Bakhmut.”
... According to both soldiers named Serhiy, most brigades are insufficiently trained and lack the experience for an environment as brutal as Bakhmut. People are taken at night to a place they’d never seen before and the battle starts in the morning.
“This is why positions are abandoned, people are there for the first time,” says the younger Serhiy. “I went to a position three times and was given six people who hadn’t fought at all before. We had a few dead and wounded that had to be evacuated… Our people are not being protected.”
Oleksandr confirms that while some battalions fighting in Bakhmut are well-trained and ready, most of them aren’t and many were thrown in at night without much preparation. “Yes, that’s true, my battalion was not prepared,” he says. After five months without a single break from the fighting, only half of Oleksandr’s battalion is left, he says.
“They shouldn’t have rushed to throw everyone in there,” says the younger Serhiy. “Better to abandon those positions, who cares? It’s better to properly train people.”
“First & foremost, Russians are not stupid, they learn as fast as anyone else just what works and what doesn’t work.”
Stupidity isn’t the only reason that people fail to adapt. In fact, when it comes to large groups of people, it’s probably the least common reason. Institutional resistance, for example, is a much more common reason, and Russia has that in spades.
Sure, but remember, "good" and "bad" are strictly relative terms -- good means you are better than your enemy, bad means he can beat you in a fight.
Whenever the German army could concentrate enough forces in a schwerpunkt, they could beat the Soviets, or anyone else. But even in early 1943, the best German general (Manstein) with all possible backing from Hitler could not concentrate enough forces to break through and relieve Sixth Army at Stalingrad.
That tells me the Soviets, even then, had gone from bad to good, and the Germans were quickly becoming pathetic.
Agreed, and my point is, Soviets did eventually figure out what they had to do to win and it took them nearly four years, from 1939 to 1943.
But once they had it, their March west to Berlin moved about the same average speed as the German March east in 1941 & '42.
Vermont Lt: " To make an “apples to apples” comparison you need to fill in the second part of the equation: What “white knight” is going to come to the aid of the Russian Army? China, North Korea, and Iran?
That might work somewhat (and the Ukraine war IS smaller..so it might work.)."
Right, and China is the key. They are a huge manufacturing resource which could supply Vlad the Invader with everything he needs, for a price.
And that price will highlight two elements, first, the Xi-snake is senior partner in charge.
Putin will do what Xi tells him to.
Second, Russia will become China's raw materials pantry, thus eliminating the Xi-Snake's huge vulnerability to western naval power.
I think this will happen rather soon, if it has not already.
Vermont Lt: "In WWII there were few embargoes on goods going into the Soviet Union.
There are still trickles of goods coming in through back channels, but in the amounts to take on a NATO supplied Ukraine. "
I think the Russian economy is being realigned to focus on countries like China and India, aka the BRICS, or as I would put it, the CRIBS, putting China & Russia first.
In due time they will be relatively independent of Western influence & pressure.
Vermont Lt: " What I don’t understand is why the Russians haven’t gone full “Red Army” on Ukraine. "
I'm not sure what "full Red Army" means, but I'd be very surprised if we do not see at least one more massive Russian effort to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses.
Vermont Lt: "99% of what he read and hear is propaganda from one side or the other.
If you pick out the 1% truth on both sides there are more questions about the Russian failure to really advance than there are about Ukrainians fighting to defend their homeland. "
Sure, but I doubt if we've yet seen the limits of Russian conventional military power, or what Vlad's new friends in China and elsewhere can contribute to the Russian war effort.
Agreed, I would only remember, it was nearly four years from the Soviet failures in Finland, 1939, to their successes against the Wehrmacht in 1943.
In those four years the Soviets learned what worked & didn't, and they also came to rely on very important Allies, the Brits & Americans.
I think, in another three years the world will be realigned and Vlad the Invader will be more dependent on the Xi-snake than on any western economy.
Cronos: " it is not that simple. Even if they have all of the materials, it is impossible to build without the smart people — see #1 above "
First, I highly doubt if Russia has lost all its smart people, and second, even if they did, the Xi-snake has millions he could easily loan to Russia, at a "reasonable" price.
Cronos: " this is not that easy if you consider that 90% of Russia’s population is in Europe, not Asia.
They have sold materials at a discount to Asian countries, but they don’t have the pipelines to do it continuously. "
All of that is easily corrected with new pipe lines, rail lines and roads -- just the sorts of infrastructure China is eager to invest in.
Cronos: "Vlad is not profiting considering that they are selling at 40% + discounts to India and China. "
But still at a price much higher than before he invaded Ukraine.
Cronos: " no, it has not.
It sent in its elite units at the start of the war, then they were crushed and the Russians tried partial mobilization, which failed.
Then they recruited criminals. "
I've seen nothing to suggest that even on third of Russia's prewar military is committed in Ukraine.
Vlad's reserves today are equivalent to those Stalin held back in Siberia for the defense of Moscow -- only to be released when he was certain of no future Japanese invasion.
Cronos: " Russia does not have a reserve, this is visible in the way they are unable to make any movements and at the same time they are unable to even protect their homelands (see that the Duma has told businesses that they have to protect themselves from drones) "
The Russian way of war requires huge reserves.
Just because we haven't seen them doesn't mean Vlad doesn't have them and our own intelligence people don't know exactly what & where they are.
Remember, Stalin held back his eastern reserves until German offensive energy waned at the gates of Moscow.
Only a fool would fritter away his strategic reserves trying to overrun Bakhmut.
Cronos: " that would be only if Russia learnt from its errors. It has not "
Maybe not, not yet.
Cronos: " Russia... Finns... World Winning force” — actually this was due to Nazi Germany over-extending itself AND the American lend-lease. "
For sure, those helped, but it was still Russians who planned & executed the fighting.
Believe me, I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but I wouldn't believe it until certain.
The traditional Russian way of war is all about having huge reserves to back up their front lines.
tlozo:: " Corruption and low morale are the two problems endemic to the Russian military.
How will they be overcome? "
I suspect that at least partly explains why so many high ranking Russian officers have been killed in combat.
With their corruption and incompetence exposed, death on the battlefield is an honorable and appropriate punishment.
Traditionally, war was looked on as a way for a nation to cleanse itself of bad people.
Today, especially where elections substitute for war, we don't think like that now, but the effect might still be seen in authoritarian dictatorships.
tlozo: " Russia Has Deployed 97% of Army in Ukraine but Is Struggling to Advance, U.K. Says"
Again, I hope it's true and I'm wrong, but I wouldn't believe it until I know for certain.
The thing is that you forge that the 4 years is broken up into 3 periods
Today there has not been enough time or supply or will for Russians to change
Bro "First, I highly doubt if Russia has lost all its smart people, and second, even if they did, the Xi-snake has millions he could easily loan to Russia, at a "reasonable" price.:
First -- yes, not "all", however the ones remaining are still hamstrung by Putin's corruption and oligarchy
"Xi lending" - he has zero incentive to do so
Bro "new pipe lines etc." - and those take time and materials - Russia doesn't have the know-how or skills or capability to make much of the transportation stuff
Bro "Still at a higher price than before he invaded" -- not quite, the net profit he makes is lower than what the Russian budget demands
Bro "prewar military is committed in Ukraine" - the UK says 97%, you say less than 30% -- yet all the indications: such as the fact that border troops in Kaliningrad, on the border with Finland and Mongolia and Russia have been reduced, that the Far East brigades have been moved to ukraine and that there was an attempted partial mobilization indicates that it is closer to the 90%
Bro - "just because we haven't seen the reserves" -- actually we have - as I said above, Russia has been moving troops from other places to the battlegrounds and that is clea that the Russians have no reserve - they're gone
“...Bro “First, I highly doubt if Russia has lost all its smart people, and second, even if they did, the Xi-snake has millions he could easily loan to Russia, at a “reasonable” price.:...”
My only problem with that statement is logistics. I seriously doubt the Trans-Siberian Rail System could support the movement of “millions” even if you packed them in cattle cars! I doubt it if could even support the shipment of Chinese arms in sufficient numbers to make any difference.
you are correct
Obviously, "millions" is hyperbole to make the point: if Russia is truly running short of "smart people" (which I doubt) to build new advanced weapons & commercial technologies, then the Xi-snake has plenty more he could loan to Vlad.
Or, Xi could simply build whatever Russians can't, in China, and ship Vlad the finished products.
All of it would come at a price and that will include recognizing Xi as the senior partner in their alliance, I would think.
Reily: " I doubt it if could even support the shipment of Chinese arms in sufficient numbers to make any difference."
It's a double track and Russian cargo trains run about 50 mph, take nearly two weeks from Vladivostok to Russia's western border.
Are Russian trains like ours? 100+ cars long, 50 tons per car, maybe four trains an hour on a busy track?
That's a lot of cargo, especially if it's all weapons and ammunition.
Of course, they all use different gauge tracks, so anything from, say, China, needs to transfer trains at the border, I'd presume.
I'm only saying: where there's a will, there's a way, and wars can make even stranger bedfellows than politics.
The Hitler-Stalin pact was signed in late August, 1939.
One week later Hitler invaded Poland, and that campaign was over in early October.
When Stalin invaded Finland in November, 1939, his forces massively outnumbered the Fins in troops, tanks, aircraft and other equipment.
And yet, the Fins out-fought the Soviets, inflicting five to one casualties on them, for three months before accepting a truce.
The army Stalin used to invade Finland was the one left after Stalin's massive purges of the late 1930s.
It was not "complacent", but did have largely new leadership.
Cronos: "Losses to Nazi germany (1941-1943) = they lost ehavily and only survived because of help from the USA "
Well, first, the U.S. sent almost no aid to Stalin in 1941, and relatively little in 1942, so U.S. aid was not the critical factor at Moscow in 1941, or even Stalingrad in 1942.
The fact is, Stalin beat Hitler there because he, Stalin, was the better military leader.
Cronos: " Wins against nazi germany = this was because Germany's logistics and supply failed and US support.
I don't see much change in Russian tactics or strategy "
Nazi leadership (Hitler) failed in every aspect, not just in logistics.
Cronos: " Today there has not been enough time or supply or will for Russians to change "
Right, not enough time, yet.
Cronos: " First -- yes, not "all", however the ones remaining are still hamstrung by Putin's corruption and oligarchy
"Xi lending" - he has zero incentive to do so "
Oh, I'd think Xi would have every incentive to turn Vlad the Invader into another client like North Korean Little Kim.
My point is that "smart people" are not a scarce resource in China.
And if Xi decides to keep his "smart people" in China, he could use them to build & sell whatever Vlad needs.
So I can't see a supposed lack of "smart people" being a major problem for Vlad the Invader.
Cronos: " 'new pipe lines etc.' - and those take time and materials - Russia doesn't have the know-how or skills or capability to make much of the transportation stuff "
First, I don't believe it and, second, even if true, such skills can be hired from many places, I'd think.
Cronos: " Still at a higher price than before he invaded" -- not quite, the net profit he makes is lower than what the Russian budget demands "
And that budget is controlled by whom?
Oh, right, by Vlad the Invader, so it says exactly what Vlad wants it to say, right?
Obviously, what matters is if Russia earns enough income to support it's war effort.
In this regard, let me suggest Vlad's big 40% discount on oil is not without strings attached, chief among them cementing Vlad's good relations with the Xi-snake, India's Murmu and others. These good relations can translate, now or later, into support for Vlad's war.
Cronos: "...that border troops in Kaliningrad, on the border with Finland and Mongolia and Russia have been reduced, that the Far East brigades have been moved to ukraine and that there was an attempted partial mobilization indicates that it is closer to the 90%."
First, I'd suspect those units are being cycled through Ukraine, just as we did with our units in Iraq & Afghanistan, not permanently withdrawn.
In due time they will return, though not necessarily to the same station as before.
Second, to repeat the obvious, on all of these matters I do sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong, but I'd not believe such rosy scenarios until I had scrutinized them with the highest powered magnifying glass.
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