Ukraine: Is it almost over?

It is an interesting observation and I think a lot of it would depend on how much loyalty the people of Crimea have to Russia. I remember seeing a documentary on Crimea several years ago that showed a pretty significant split in public opinion in Crimea about annexation by Russia. The Crimean economy had been largely interwoven with Ukraine prior to 2014 and the documentary did point out that many businesses in Crimea have declined since they have been cut off from Ukraine proper. The main economic boost that Crimea gets from Russia is tourism and some military spending that benefits the local economy.

Big Serge and Simplicus the Thinker are both discussing the RF is going slowly while they move away from their BTG organization while adapting to the war they have. Fair enough.

Five Eyes targeting info is basically pinning everything in place. Ugledar and Marinka pin the ends of the southeast salient. Both were constructed by the evil geniuses that planned the Soviet economy, where apartment buildings are concrete redoubts. Both are protected by pivoting artillery batteries in Kurakhove. Highly accurate with Five Eyes intel.

If either Marinka or Ugledar fall, AFU loses Kurakhove. Ugledar is in the Steppe, which is a whole different topography than the hills and valleys of the Donbass. Once the Donbass is cleared and defensive positions breached, territory will be easier to come by and will be taken by the newly reorganized RF.

Once big chunks of steppe behind organized defense are taken, it will appear as a collapse. The RF will need to decide if they will cross the Dneiper. The diplomats will be going batsit at that point. If yes, they will move to Poltava then Kremenchug to cover their flanks for their lush to Transnistria.

If the want to grind the nose of the collective West in it, from there ther will take Malorusya through Vinnista then Zhitomir up to the Belarusian border where the will drink vodka and eat caviar.

They are preparing for a 30 month engagement.

Just my $.02

They are preparing for a 30 month engagement.
——-
Very astute, interesting you mentioned the “ 30 month engagement”, they have restructured and made preparations against a NATO since 2015, and that included stepping up war production years ago- Ivan isn’t running out of war supplies anytime soon.

Our corrupted western MSM failed to let the western sheep that fact, some sources state Ivan’s ammo production tonnage can last a high intensity conflict for at least five years….the collective West’s ammo production currently has no chance at all to satisfy even a three month high intensity conflict- and everyone knows it.

to satisfy even a three month high intensity conflict

I have been posting so much on this topic because I cannot comprehend the depth of the stupidity in advancing this engineered conflict. I try not to admit even to myself that it is unvarnished evil. Even worse, nobody has even the mildest conception of its existence. I am officially an angry old man!

You are astute in noting we have enough ammo for three months high intensity. Our force structure and weapons design philosophy has about a three month endurance as well. We have all sorts of expensive systems good for one purpose that should get us to a quick victory.

The RF structure and weapons have a far different design philosophy. A half dead 14 year old can crawl out of bombed apartment redoubt, get to the artillery piece, wack it with a hammer to fix it and return fire. If their weapon system wont do this, they wont produce it. No joke. They have been invaded so many times, doing just that is just what you do. Now they're learning how to lay precision target acquisition information systems over the top of these near indestructible weapons. Of all the Europeans I fear the Russians the most.

And our neocon no off-ramp policy re-awakens this. I am a realpolitic guy - know your opponent and the set a realistic policy. As far as what were doing now, I don't know how many times I can say I just don't get it.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.