Posted on 02/26/2023 6:48:02 AM PST by elpadre
Some 10,000 to 20,000 troops comprising the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut are now trapped. Reports say that the city is operationally encircled with diminishing chance of a breakout.
To the west of Bakhmut is a lot of open country and not much to prevent a Russian advance all the way to the Dnieper River. There is no hard evidence yet that the Ukrainian army has prepared a second line of defense.
This means the way may be open for a possible major offensive by Russian forces. Whether that will happen and what Russia’s goals are remain to be seen.
Most of the Russian advance in Bakhmut was by “private army” Wagner forces. Wagner troops are on the eastern and southern side of the town, and also in the north. A major stronghold, Yahidne, has now fallen.
Ukraine tried a counter-offensive that temporarily gained some ground, but now it has been rolled back. There is little chance that the Ukrainians have an opportunity to try again.
The weather is about to turn rainy and overcast. This makes it difficult for Ukrainian forces to retreat from the city in any orderly way. The roads are all but blocked, and forces evacuating across muddy farm fields will be difficult, leading to high casualties.
(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...
So they are just like the New York Times, Washington Post, Newsweak, etc?
...and what Russia’s goals are remain to be seen...
Fake News refuses to listen
Russia was clear last year
1) destroy Uke military
2) De-nazify Ukraine
If Bakhmut falls, maybe Zelensky and his Daily Mail supporters will stop announcing victory and consent to a compromise — where neither side gets it all.
The spring Rasputitsa arrives.
“the city is operationally encircled”
The head of the Ukrainian army Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskiy, visited Bakhmut yesterday. It seems that Putin’s army missed their big chance to capture the head of the Ukrainian army https://news.yahoo.com/land-forces-hief-visits-bakhmut-171236865.html .
These Kremlin propaganda stories are amusing but ridiculous.
Is Biden partnering with Putin to nuke up Iran and remove President Trump’s excellent Middle East policies part of this US-Russia “war”?
From an Eastern source, quoted without endorsement of its truth, which shod be for the reader to decide:
The Russians are being so extraordinarily careful not to overstate Ukrainian deaths that they are severely understating the situation. Particularly on casualties. Like the claims about equipment destroyed, these seem to be based on literal body counts (drones taking pictures of the dead). What are not being counted are the Ukrainian wounded, who have an unusual distribution in comparison with other modern wars. This war has very limited small arms and fragmentation wound rate, most of which are survivable with extended modern medical extraction and treatment. Instead, we see very high rates of bariatric injuries, which kills far more people near the detonation, and wounds people away from it, but the wounds tend to kill the victims in 3 to 5 days unless they can be treated with
advanced surgery in modern facilities which Ukraine no longer possesses. This is simply not possible in the Ukraine where the medical infrastructure has long collapsed under the floods of injured, meaning that after triage all but the most trivial injuries are stacked on stretchers to die in the corridors, providing morphine only to the noisiest to preserve supplies.
So instead of the 1:10-17 ratio of killed in action to wounded, where 90% of the injured will survive, typical of modern warfare (e.g. Iraq) resulting in a distribution of deaths as 33% direct combat, 22% non-hostile, 45% indirect combat (died while undergoing transport or treatment), we are seeing WW I like rates of 1:10, less than 20% of the injured will survive in the Ukraine (because of higher ratios of bariatric to other injuries and inadequate medical evacuation and treatment). Assuming the same 22 per 100 killed in accidents (might be higher, Ukrainians tend to be less disciplined, not as well trained, and generally reckless, especially when alcohol or drugs are involved), we are probably seeing a distribution of deaths around 35% direct combat, 25% non-hostile, 45% indirect combat. This is why the Russian claims about Ukrainian casualties should be multiplied by 5 times to calculate the effective Ukrainian death rate rate. In other words, when Russia reports on Ukrainian KIA, of 100, the actual mortality rate is probably 400 to 600.
Similar field rates are happening with Russians, resulting in a ratio very similar to the US in Iraq (but at lower injury rates due to fewer IEDs and more deaths due to higher levels of artillery, mortar and rocket attacks). It should be noted that the US killed 40 Iraqi to every US loss. Extrapolating that statistic off my estimate for Russian dead of 22,000 to date, means that Ukraine would have lost some 880,000 men. When we base it off Russian claims of about 150,000 Ukrainian deaths, that extrapolates to 400,000 to 600,000 deaths. To me, allowing for Ukrainians being far better armed than the Iraqi and the Russians being much less recklessly destructive than the Americans, suggests that the actual Ukrainian death toll is currently between 500,000 and 600,000.
You were told Ukraine is winning because the country of Ukraine still exists after a year of geocidal attacks from Russia. Which is true, of course.
Reports say...
So, the entire article is based on an unsourced report. Wow.
...operationally encircled...What does operationally encircled mean?
As discussed in other threads, the roads that Ukraine use for resupply and reinforcement are under RU artillery threat. That has been acknowledged by UKR forces.
Encirclement won't occur until RU infantry actually occupy and control the roads.
.
We continue to see videos where UKR forces are flying drones over Bakhmut and surrounding locations. These drones provide target locations for UKR artillery and mortars.
Ring around the Bakhmut,
Gotta please PutPut,
Here comes the HIMARS,
We all fall down!
It wasn’t his strategy, his generals were given a free hand
Let’s see what happens, if the Ukrainians get captured or killed we will know they miscalculated
That’s not possible. The Zelenskiyeyuih/Biden/Soros Brigade on FR told us yesterday the very opposite.
No. Russians got into some of the lower-lying areas to the north. The Ukrainians blew a small dam to flood some of those areas yesterday. You need to see the positions overlaid on a topographic map. Other sources I've seen estimate the number of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut at 4500. The Ukrainians actually pushed back some of the Russian forces to the south last week.
The notion that the Ukrainians haven't built a second line of entrenchments or even a third line is incredible as that is what they always do.
In any case temperatures have now risen to the lower 40s and it's raining, meaning mud season is upon both sides. So there is unlikely to be any major movement until April.
They aren’t even attempting this, the stabilize them and move them into Romania and Poland when advanced surgery is required then further assistance is spreading all over Europe. Author doesn’t seem to know what the triage plan that Ukraine implemented
“the wounds tend to kill the victims in 3 to 5 days unless they can be treated with
advanced surgery in modern facilities”
Good point, saw the map of the secondary trenches to the nw and sw
With what? More infantry? The Russian air force has to fly low and slow to avoid Ukrainian air defense, meaning limited range, which severely limits the bases from which it can operate. Plus pilot shortages and the usual Russian "maintenance."
Meanwhile Ukraine has received longer range munitions putting all of Zaporizhia and southern Kherson within artillery range. Wagner and/or other RA units being moved to Vuhledar were wacked in Mariupol over the past couple of days as well as ammo dumps supporting Vuhledar operations.
All of this war reporting is conjecture. First off both the Ukes and Russkies are going to lie. There may be an honest journalist or two. But they can only see a small part of the war. Arguing about the war or even trying figure out what’s really going on is pointless.
Maybe. It woulds seem that an appropriate triage plan would effect mortality rates at the margins.
Discussion of thermobaric injury: https://www.google.com/search?q=medcram+thermobaric+injury&client=ms-android-verizon&ei=0ZP7Y-XsA52qqtsPlZSksAc&oq=medcram+thermobaric+injury&gs_lcp=ChNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwEAM6CAgAEKIEELADOgUIABCiBDoKCAAQ8QQQHhCiBDoHCAAQHhDxBDoFCAAQhgM6BAgeEApKBAhBGAFQlQxYsj1g7UJoAHAAeACAAZMBiAG8C5IBAzUuOJgBAKABAcgBAcABAQ&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:a2db220c,vid:ZwScTlCf5IQ
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