Posted on 02/24/2023 5:13:25 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, or LBNL, researchers Michael Wehner and Alan Rhoades worked with Binod Pokharel, a researcher at Utah State University and Tribhuvan University in Nepal, to help link drought and fire in Nepal to climate change. They also established a model for predicting future fires.
According to Pokharel, the project arose from his own interest in the topic, specifically during March 2021 when there was an unprecedented amount of pollution and fire in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.
“It was very dry in the nation, that’s for sure,” Pokharel said. “It was also very still. March in Nepal is called the pre-monsoon season … due to wind, pollution is washed out easily. But that did not happen in 2021. There was no wind … so that was a starting point and kind of motivation.”
Prior to working with LBNL, Pokharel had already found a strong correlation between drought and fire, and found a statistical model that can be used to predict fires up to a month before they occur.
Then Wehner and Rhoades became involved, and determined that these droughts and fires were linked to climate change.
They did this by measuring droughts using indices of data from previous droughts, and simulating these droughts in a way that accounts for anthropogenic climate change and a “counterfactual” way that imagines living in a world without any climate-change related temperature increases.
Wehner said that the results were “significantly different in terms of reproducing the likelihood of the perceived drought.”
Next steps for Pokharel involve obtaining funding to develop an interface that shows predicted fires before they occur.
He also said that he wants to develop a statistical model to determine the likelihood of fires occurring in different regions, as the current model is more broad.
“We need to develop a statistical model for each different vegetation cover and region,” Pokharel said. “We need to work more on this kind of research so we can figure out what area is the most fire risk zone … using the same model we can separate high risk zone, medium risk zone, low risk zone.”
Wehner said he is pursuing a way to adapt some of this knowledge towards other instances of drought and fire, like California. For the state, in particular, Wehner noted one thing that will make this project easier is the abundant weather data.
He also noted that collaboration was key, and that he wouldn’t have been able to write the paper by himself.
“For me the most important part is that this is a really high quality study of a developing nation,” Wehner said. “The developing nations are the ones that are the most susceptible to climate change and certainly the least.”
“Scientists correlate climate change to EVERYTHING”
Collaborate. Isn’t that another word for “conspire”? Since it was for grant money, no doubt, it sure sounds like a RICO case in the making.
”Counterfactual” — ha, ha. They FINALLY said something honest!
Here’s their dream world before any climate-change ruined it…
They really believe the world was a perfect 72F and balmy breezes before man started burning coal and oil.
Ah, our daily minimum required dose of climate fear porn.
Pathetic, but expected.
Scientists are ignoring the Tonga Volcano which pumped 58 billion tons of ash and gas into the atmosphere and literally shook the World on Jan 15 2022.
There.
Not scientists, but activists.
Scare quotes needed
Berkeley “Scientists”
Berkeley and “scientists” should NEVER be used in the same sentence.
Tell me how much that fire damaged vs Krakatoa eruptions damage and I will ponder the effects.
They talk about climate like there’s only one and not 17 different climates ,LOL
Without all the bullcrap squishy jargon, I can state emphatically that Northern California will burn this summer and early fall.
Currently outside my living room window it is snowing (about 6 inches so far), we have had some (not enough) good rain so far this year but are still about 10 to 12 inches below average.
Just enough to get the grass and scrub brush to grow really well this spring then turn into kindling in late summer or early fall.
YES, WE WILL BURN!
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