Posted on 02/22/2023 9:14:30 PM PST by Red6
Recent data show surges in trade for some of Russia’s neighbors and allies, suggesting that countries like Turkey, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are stepping in to provide Russia with many of the products that Western countries have tried to cut off as punishment for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia’s imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
You know, the Ruble is worthless.
Their GDP shrinking.
They can't sell their oil, gas and coal.
Inflation is through the roof.
The shelves are empty.
But now we are starting to hear it isn't so? How can that be?
She and the NYT's must be Putin puppets and this is Russian propaganda.
Worst thing in this policy is to fire and miss.
A surge in trade by Russia’s neighbors and allies hints at one reason its economy remains so resilient after sweeping sanctions, “The New York Times” recognizes.
Some companies, including H&M, IBM, Volkswagen and Maersk, halted operations in Russia, citing moral and logistical reasons. But the Russian economy has proved surprisingly resilient, raising questions about the efficacy of the West’s sanctions.
Countries have had difficulty reducing their reliance on Russia for energy and other basic commodities, and the Russian central bank has managed to prop up the value of the ruble and keep financial markets stable.
The International Monetary Fund said it now expected the Russian economy to grow 0.3 percent this year, a sharp improvement from its previous estimate of a 2.3 percent contraction.
The I.M.F. also said it expected Russian crude oil export volume to stay relatively strong under the current price cap, and Russian trade to continue being redirected to countries that had not imposed sanctions.
Matthew Klein, an economics writer and a co-author of “Trade Wars Are Class Wars,” is one of the people drawing conclusions about this Russia-size hole in the global economy. According to his calculations, the value of global exports to Russia in November was just 15 percent below a monthly preinvasion average. Global exports to Russia most likely fully recovered in December, though many countries have not yet issued their trade data for the month, he said. “Most of that recovery has been driven overall by China and Turkey particularly,” Mr. Klein said.
‘Silverado Policy Accelerator’, a Washington nonprofit, recently issued a similar analysis, estimating that the value of Russian imports from the rest of the world had exceeded prewar levels by September. Andrew S. David, the senior director of research and analysis at Silverado, said the trends reflected how supply chains had shifted to continue providing Russia with goods.
Samsung and Apple, previously major suppliers of Russian cellphones, pulled out of the Russian market after the invasion. Exports of popular Chinese phone brands, like Xiaomi, Realme and Honor, also initially dipped as companies struggled to understand and cope with new restrictions on sending technology or making international payments to Russia.
But after an “adjustment period,” Chinese brands started to take off in Russia, Mr. David said. Overall Chinese exports to Russia reached a record high in December, helping to offset a steep drop in trade with Europe. Apple and Samsung phones also appeared to begin to find their way back to Russia, rerouted through friendly neighboring countries.
Shipments to Russia of other products, like passenger vehicles, have also rebounded. And China has increased exports of semiconductors to Russia, though Russia’s total chip imports remain below prewar levels.
One major open question is how effectively the Western price cap will hold down Russia’s oil revenue this year. The cap allows Russia to sell its oil globally using Western maritime insurance and financing as long as the price does not exceed $60 per barrel.
That limit, which is essentially an exception to Group of 7 sanctions, is designed to keep oil flowing on global markets while limiting the Russian government’s revenue from it. But some analysts have suggested that Russia is finding ways around the effort by using ships that do not rely on Western insurance or financing.
“If that fleet is big enough for Russia to really operate outside the reach” of the Group of 7 countries, the cap probably “won’t have the kind of leverage that policymakers wanted,” Mr. Cahill said.
The sanctions have been a joke from day 1. Russia made $10 Billion a month more from its energy exports alone in 2022 compared to 2021. They are profiting big time from this foolishness.
The Republican neocons had such great hopes for an Ukraine-Russia conflict that the snakes participated in the coup against President Trump to get Biden into office. What a bunch of treacherous losers.
Our neighbor, an army Senior master sergeant has a Russian bride that he met while he was in Japan. She speaks several languages fluently and was working as a translator for the UN when he met her. When he was deployed abroad for several months in 2022, she and their cute little girl went to Russia and stayed with her parents for several months. When she got back they came over to visit with us and she was texting to her mother. She said that that life was going on completely as normal where her parents live.
Imagine that? The NY Times lied to us.
Those are some major economies, but many poorer nations in Africa, South America, and southeast Asia also continue to trade with Russia.
Increasingly, nations are putting their own interests first, instead of following the America Empire.
A far cry from the first Bush's vast "Coalition of the Willing" during the Gulf War, back when the declared a "New World Order."
Russia needs to sell energy to make money, while paying for all imported goods. Insurers won't insure Russian tankers, ports won't take uninsured ships, countries are buying what they can get at the sanction rate which is close to at cost or lower. No one other than Russia really wants to antagonize the US and Europe too much, a little is going to happen. Smuggling cell phones into Russia will not change the outcome of the war.
Russia is cutting back on energy production this year, which means, cutting back on how much money they can make to fund their war in Ukraine. That was one of the goals of the sanctions.
On that last, Russia’s problem is that countries like China and India essentially are going along with the transport sanctions and forcing Russia to continue to sell at large discounts. Obviously, this is a windfall for the buyers. Russia has no easy way out because now it’s customer list is sharply curtailed, and due to transport times, there are nowhere near enough ships, in or out of sanctions, to carry the volumes needed. (To maintain the same volume when transport time is something like 6x, you need 6x the ships. Ain’t happenin’ any time soon.)
Most analysts seem to forget that “The West” doesn’t actually want to completely cut off Russian energy exports from global markets, as that raises their own prices. The idea is to cut into Russian revenues, which Russia’s own latest economic report shows is clearly happening.
The West also does not want to harm it’s other trade partners such as Japan and S. Korea, etc.
(Said block, btw, is ~ 80% of global GDP. The US and Europe alone are ~ 73%.)
The single BEST measure of Russia’s economy is probably their VAT tax revenues. Keep an eye on those, allowing for any rate hikes by Russia.
The key with respect to Russian energy sales is not volume, it is what profit per barrel they can make. “The West” is perfectly happy to see Russia sell every drop of oil Russia can produce — if Russia doesn’t make much profit on it.
Hindustan Times
Latin America refuses to back West in Ukraine War
“Latin America has largely refused to back Ukraine and the West in their ongoing war with Russia. In recent weeks, America has offered compelling deals to Latin American nations like Argentina, Brazil and Colombia in order to convince them to send weapons to Ukraine. Their sharp refusals highlight the continent’s strong fierce independence.”
And Putin is obviously paying off the EU’s High Commissioner, Borrell:
The Guardian
2/19/23
Ukraine war ‘over’ unless EU boosts military support, says top diplomat
Foreign affairs chief tells Munich security conference provision of ammunition has to be solved quickly.
The war with Ukraine will be over unless the EU finds a way in weeks to speed up the provision of ammunition to Ukraine, Josep Borrell, the EU foreign affairs chief, warned on the final day of the Munich security conference.
... adding it is taking up to 10 months for European armies to order and receive a single bullet.
...”
More at:
Russia had a $120 Billion infusion into their economy in 2022 from their energy exports alone, and this was for less total volume. The Russians found ways around basically every sanction that imposed any meaningful pain to Russian consumers and businesses.
I appreciate that you have a desire to believe that the Biden administration had the aptitude and ability to sink the Russian economy, but it is not working. The points that you mention are not accomplishing what you believe that they are. If anything, the sanctions, war time production, and trade are rejuvenating the Russian economy.
It is time for you to open your eyes. In 2022 the Russians made $120 Billion more from their energy exports than they did in 2021. This was on less volume.
"Russian crude oil exports by sea surged by 26% to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending February 17"
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