"Russian crude oil exports by sea surged by 26% to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending February 17"
Russia needs to sell energy to make money, while paying for all imported goods. Insurers won't insure Russian tankers, ports won't take uninsured ships, countries are buying what they can get at the sanction rate which is close to at cost or lower. No one other than Russia really wants to antagonize the US and Europe too much, a little is going to happen. Smuggling cell phones into Russia will not change the outcome of the war.
Russia is cutting back on energy production this year, which means, cutting back on how much money they can make to fund their war in Ukraine. That was one of the goals of the sanctions.
The key with respect to Russian energy sales is not volume, it is what profit per barrel they can make. “The West” is perfectly happy to see Russia sell every drop of oil Russia can produce — if Russia doesn’t make much profit on it.
"Russian crude oil exports by sea surged by 26% to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending February 17"
The problem with trying to damage the Russian economy and sanctions on oil, gas, coal and petro products, is that they have what everyone wants, in fact needs.
For us this is long term good, we’ve wanted Europe to wean itself off Russian petro products and be aligned with us. We are a major energy producer...
But in the bigger picture, as the Euro’s move away from Russian fossil fuels, all you’ve seen is others like India, China... pick up the excess.
Again, you’re talking predictions, and so far almost everything our MSM and experts have predicted has turned out how? Like the Ruble predictions.
I am not an oil and gas expert, but IMHO some of this follows a time based cycle, so much of the talk of the Russians selling and producing less is sort of bogus because it corresponds to the cycle (time of year): https://intellinews.com/russia-s-gas-production-in-january-at-a-five-year-high-234201/
An article I found interesting: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/which-petroleum-products-does-russia-supply-to-world/
I would lay little stock in all these Russian doomsday predictions because they are speculative and allow for the writers bias and imagination to go wild. What is factual is that since war’s begin and with the sanctions, the Russians have managed to sell their gas, oil and petro products.
There is a difference between cell phones and energy. One is nice to have, the other a necessity. The Russians are sitting on things that are economic necessities: fossil fuels, fertilizers, wheat... without which the wheels stop turning and people go hungry. Can you blame Mexico or Brazil? Mexico for example imports 83,000 metric tons of wheat annually, but the bulk of their fertilizer from Russia, not counting other food products: https://aztecreports.com/ukraine-russian-war-poses-risks-and-challenges-for-mexican-food-supply/2951/ What do you think it means for a government if you have “food shortages” in a country? Even here in the US we are feeling some of the consequences of this war and our sanctions, but we are far more independent than Mexico, India... If some of these countries actually followed our lead, they would have folks with pitchforks and torches in the capital eventually, not because they are adamantly pro-Russian, but because when people are hungry, they’ll even resort to cannibalism at some point.
Our sanctions surely are having some impact. But by far not as great as our MSM, which is still celebrating the totally fair and real election of Joe Biden, claim it is.
I just came back from Mexico where I spent two months. I can tell you, there are Russian products for sale there, in plain sight. They are not sanctioning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Sanctions_against_Russia_and_Belarus_2022.svg The white area, like India, Brazil, Mexico... they are all refusing to sanction. Some of the purples like Turkey and PRC, are flat our lies. They are fully taking advantage of the situation and are indeed working around the sanctions. In some cases as with PRC while we talk sanctions they are making new multiyear gas deals with the Russians... Even some of the blue areas which we pretend are all united and standing against Russia are complete bullshit: https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-signs-deal-with-gazprom-over-additional-gas/ or https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/hungary-to-buy-more-gas-from-russian-in-new-deal/ Even within our NATO partners, within the EU you will find folks that are working around these “airtight” sanctions which are alegedly crushing the Russian economy.
If you take away the political theatrics like this: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/0/0b/%2490M_Yacht_of_Sanctioned_Russian_Oligarch_Viktor_Vekselberg_Seized_by_Spain_at_Request_of_U.S.webm/%2490M_Yacht_of_Sanctioned_Russian_Oligarch_Viktor_Vekselberg_Seized_by_Spain_at_Request_of_U.S.webm.480p.vp9.webm
What you are really seeing, actual tangible results, is the Ruble is steady, inflation is around 20%, their GDP took a slight hit of about 2.3% (so did ours BTW, and Ukraine tanked at 14% and that is with EU and US aid), Russian gas and oil production is not declining and nor are their exports... but who knows, maybe our experts get it right with these next predictions. How does the saying go, even a broken clock is right twice a day?
Well fresh also has a lot of uranium maybe they should start selling To America’s enemies to make up for that sword it’s they also have a lot of gold copper aluminum zinc
