Posted on 02/22/2023 5:14:14 AM PST by george76
A growing number of office landlords are defaulting on loan payments as the rise of remote work causes more corporate tenants to rethink long-term leases...
The delinquency rate on office loans increased by a quarter percentage point to 1.83% last month .. While the number is still relatively low, the increase was the sharpest of its kind since December 2021.
...
The shift away from traditional offices has impacted major firms. Brookfield Asset Management recently disclosed a default on more than $70 million in debt on two office towers in Los Angeles.
In Manhattan, real estate firm RXR is reportedly working with creditors to restructure debt on its office building at 61 Broadway. Last year, Blackstone Group, one of the Big Apple’s biggest landlords, handed the keys to 1740 Broadway back to its lenders while transferring a $308 million loan on its office building to a special servicer.
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Corporate landlords are losing tenants even as a recent surge in interest rates makes it more expensive to buy or refinance properties.
The problem could get worse in the months ahead. Each month, an additional five to 10 office buildings are added to the list of properties at risk of a default on debt obligations — with low occupancy a chief cause
...
Many US companies have adopted a hybrid schedule as part of their return-to-office pushes, with employees expected to work on-site anywhere from two to four days a week. Some firms, such as Airbnb, have gone fully remote, while others, such as Goldman Sachs, have pushed staffers to return to the office five days a week.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that remote work was expected to cost Manhattan $12.4 billion per year in lost revenue from worker spending.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
I like hybrid. The best of both worlds. Like 2 days/week in the office. As the days can be staggered, just lease half the space.
One of my friends works as sysop working remotely. They were bought by another company and were told “When buyer sends people down, you have to come into work” to give the appearance that they were 100% in-house. Apparently, being in-house was like a jewel in the crown.
I have a friend who has always worked remotely but she can only work at home due to a VPN. No coffee shops, etc. But I noticed they waved that when she was on vacation and they needed her. That told me quite a bit about WFH.
To see other humans not on Zoom. Makes a big difference. Humans need humans.
Exactly.
1. With the exception of the CEO, several senior employees, and client-facing administrative staff, either go to 100% remote work or 100% on-site for their regular work tasks. There's no in-between.
2. Every employee should live within two hours of the office. They basically must do this anyway, because most employees regularly interact with clients and other organizations ... so there's no option for having someone work 500+ miles away.
3. The majority of the office space should be comprised of a couple of meeting/conference rooms, plus one large auditorium-like room where all employees can attend a regularly scheduled staff meeting every 3-4 weeks.
Personally, I find that the "hotel"/shared office space model simply doesn't work for me. I have a client that has assigned me to share an office with their own employees this way. I think I've been in that office twice since January 1st of LAST year. I can't work in an office that's not set up for me, and doesn't have any personal effects of mine in it.
I’m just fine with zoom calls rather than meeting in person. The vast majority of the meetings are just as useless but now (since almost nobody turns on their camera) I don’t have to sit there and pretend I’m paying rapt attention. I can even get actual work done while somebody is yammering on about something useless.
I will never forget Friday, March 13, 2020. That was the last day my workplace was anything like normal. That was the day that the state of New York almost gleefully announced that they were joining the lockdown.
You know, the 10 days to "stop the spread nonsense", or whatever that was.
I still remember telling employees to take their laptops home that day and any other things they needed to work at home. By 4PM, the office took on the atmosphere of an elementary school turning the kids loose for summer vacation. Nearly three years later, some of those employees still haven't been back but they do allegedly work here. I see them on ZOOM calls every now and then.
The COVID shutdown was brought about by the politicians and they were all giddy about discovering just how much power they could obtain over us by creating an atmosphere of fear.
I am amazed the commercial real estate bubble has lasted this long.
They can fake it for a while, but eventually there will be an epic collapse of that sector of the economy.
Good advice—they are lucky to have you.
Organizations need to adjust to the real world.
Wasting money on unused and unneeded office space is the definition of stupidity.
>> shutdown was brought about by the politicians and they were all giddy about discovering just how much power they could obtain over us by creating an atmosphere of fear..
Hermann Goering said during the Nuremberg trials that “the only thing a government needs to turn people into slaves is fear.”
Anyone here heard about the Qualified Opportunity Zones?
It was something Congress passed that allowed deferral of income tax on long-term capital gains IF the money was reinvested in commercial real estate (and left in that investment for a certain amount of time). One of the requirements was that the real estate had to be in certain “economically disadvantaged” areas.
Now, one might think, “Those fat-cats that went for that deal are going to be really sorry about how badly that turned out for them.”
My speculation is that Congress will be motivated (by lobbyists and contributions, etc.) to update the QOZ requirements to (essentially) bail out many of the QOZ investors.
After all, some animals are more equal than others.
A daisy chain effect:
Lower utility costs-—empty buildings
Less security
No payroll taxes to cities that charge such based on WHERE you work
No lunches/dinners/ coffees bought in surrounding areas—loss to business owners
It is said that a person with a paycheck spends 70% of that paycheck within 7 miles of where they work-—THAT is also re-arranged.
I hope Black Rock loses a lot of money.
The company 2 story office building I last worked at is mostly empty that once had 300 people there.
Yep
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