Posted on 02/16/2023 10:02:57 AM PST by Zhang Fei
Zelensky said that he intends to increase the army to a million people to attack the Crimea. The West is also pushing Kiev to at least some success on the battlefield. Air Defense Colonel Yuriy Knutov, a military expert, believes that Zelensky's statements should not be discounted: the enemy is really preparing the army for an offensive that, according to him, may look like a Tatar-Mongol invasion.
More and more experts note Kiev's serious intentions to take revenge for the winter campaign, in which the Russian army was able to seize the initiative. One of the most priority areas of the offensive is increasingly called the Crimea.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken even issued a warning to Kiev. They say that Ukraine's attempt to reclaim Crimea will be a red line for Vladimir Putin, which may lead to "a broader reaction from Russia." It is not known how sincere Blinken is in this case. Rather, it is Washington that is pushing Kiev to provoke.
As the director of the Air Defense Museum, Colonel Yuri Knutov, told MK, the APU offensive will most likely take place in March-April.
"The Kiev regime has long announced an offensive by spring," he said. - It is scheduled for March. But, most likely, it will happen in late March or early April.
Now there is an increased preparation for this offensive: military personnel in NATO countries are being prepared (this is somewhere in the order of 30-40 thousand people), mobilization is underway in Ukraine. The task of the puppet state is to bring the army to a million people. Therefore, they are mobilizing everyone: men, women, the elderly, the disabled, in order to use them as cannon fodder.
At the same time, Kiev is demanding more and more ammunition and offensive military equipment from the West. Now, by the way, we see that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have reduced the intensity of shelling in a number of areas. This may be due to shell starvation, but it is more likely that the shells are being accumulated just in time for the spring offensive.
Yuri Knutov did not rule out that the Kiev regime may attempt to attack the Crimea.
"The strikes will most likely be carried out on the Luhansk and Zaporizhia regions in such a way as to reach Melitopol and Berdyansk, cut our group in half, cut the road that supplies Crimea by land along the Sea of Azov, and thus create prerequisites for further advancement of Ukrainian troops.
The plans are serious. The enemy is also preparing for them seriously. The probability of offensive actions is quite high. We understand this and are also creating a line of defense, preparing our troops to actively meet the upcoming offensive...
According to Yuri Knutov, the Russian army will try to disrupt the offensive, as it did before.
- Of course, it would be better to simply prevent the offensive and disrupt it due to our active actions, as well as the use of aviation and artillery. We are still responding. There were attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through in the Zaporizhia direction before that. We detected troop concentrations in a timely manner and attacked the emerging "kulaks" that were supposed to break through our defenses.
They successfully forced the enemy to disperse and thereby disrupted offensive actions. I think that this tactic will be applied in this case as well. But in any case, the Kiev regime cannot abandon the offensive, because the decision was made in Washington and supported in Brussels.
Therefore, Zelensky will have to carry out the plans that his Western sponsors wrote to him. The probability of fighting in the spring and in the first half of summer is clearly visible.
According to Knutov, the Russian army will obviously continue to exhaust the enemy on the battlefield. At the same time, the enemy will adhere to this tactic, especially if it can raise an army of millions.
- The enemy can gather such an army to repeat the tactics of exhaustion. As in the films about the raids of the Tatar-Mongol invasion, when one wave after another comes to the battlefield and exhausts the defenders. It is possible that a bet is being made on such exhaustion. Therefore, we must prepare aircraft for bombing attacks, artillery and a large number of anti-tank missile systems.
But most importantly, there must be minefields and serious fortifications. The statements of the Kiev regime, no matter how strange they may seem, should be taken seriously and not fall into cap-building. It is necessary to make defensive plans in order to exhaust the enemy, bleed them out, concentrate their forces and then launch a counteroffensive. We have all the resources to do this.
Ukraine ping
Very ahistorical analogy that asserts the Mongol invasions were human wave attacks where hordes of attackers overwhelmed the defenders with wave after wave of disposable troops. In reality, the Mongols were always greatly outnumbered and near the end of their tether, supply-wise. They relied on combined arms maneuver, superior training and deception to achieve their war aims. Subotai, the winningest commander in Mongol history, is probably one of a handful of men comparable to Alexander in his military exploits:
In a unique historical anomaly, the strategic and operational innovations of Genghis Khan and Subutai became lost in history, and others were forced to rediscover them 600 and 700 years later. Even though Subutai had devastated the armies of Russia, Georgia, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Latin Constantinople in a series of one-sided campaigns, Western military leaders, historians, and theorists completely ignored him until the 20th century.[57] The Mongols did not operate as one distinct mass, but instead moved along 3–5 axes of approach, often 500–1000 km apart, and threatened numerous objectives simultaneously. Like Napoleon, Subutai (and Genghis Khan) would disperse their forces along a wide frontage and rapidly coalesce at decisive points to defeat the enemy in detail. Their methods were aligned to completely crush the enemy state’s will to fight.[58] Subutai has been credited as the first general to operate campaigns using the modern organizational methods of command and control.[59]
Though unknown to the west for many centuries, Subutai’s exploits were featured by the British military theorist B. H. Liddell Hart in his book Great Captains Unveiled after World War I. Liddell Hart used the example of the Mongols under Genghis and Subutai to demonstrate how a mechanized army could fight using the principles of mobility, dispersion and surprise. Due to his innovative battle tactics and novelty in strategy he is a source of inspiration for later generals. In particular, Erwin Rommel and George Patton were avid students of Mongol campaigns.[60]
‘Deep Battle’ theory
Main article: Deep Battle
Russia derived the most use out of a careful study of the Mongol campaigns. Their closer proximity to the steppe gave them greater interest and access to the Mongolian campaigns, first analyzed by the Russian General Mikhail Ivanin in the 19th century, which became a recommended text in the Russian military academies up until the mid 20th century.[61] Ivanin’s work became used in the Deep Battle doctrine developed by Soviet Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky, Mikhail Frunze, and G. S. Isserson. Deep Battle doctrine bore a heavy resemblance to Mongol strategic methods, substituting tanks, motorized troop carriers, artillery, and airplanes for Mongol horse archers, lancers, and field artillery. The Red Army even went so far as to copy Subutai’s use of smokescreens on the battlefield to cover troop movements.[62] Later in the 20th century, American military theorist John Boyd and some of his followers used Genghis Khan and Subutai’s campaigns as examples of maneuver warfare.[63] ]
“Zelensky said that he intends to increase the army to a million people to attack the Crimea”
Are they going to draft teenagers?
This is criminal. Zelensky/NATO/USA are butchering the people of Ukraine.
Finally says it. Russia will never surrender Crimea.
That really cheapens the sacrifices that were made to stop the Mongols. Ridiculous hyperbole.
Look at these two charts comparing demographics of USA (Ie. a normal country) vs. Ukraine. Notice the curves.
Ukraine hasn't had a census in 22 years, so this chart is only an estimate from the UN. The UN stupidly estimates that Ukraine has the same number of people as it did 22 years ago, which is manifestly FALSE
Nonetheless - where are all Ukraine's 15-35 year olds?? they don't exist.
They were never conceived, they were aborted, or if they were born, they left the country - and not just in the last year, but over the last 30 years.
So who is going to join Zelensky's army? Who is going to have babies that will defend Ukraine in 20 years?
Given that rump Ukraine is probably down to about 20 million people, and that as many has 400K soldiers are already killed or wounded - Zelensky's comment that he's going raise a million-man army is pure lies and gas-lighting.
Ukraine was already a failed, dying state. Its corpse was being fed upon, first by Russian oligarchs, then by US neocons and American oligarchs like Hunter Biden.
The Russian invasion merely pushed it into the grave
The problem with a look that far back in history is the Russians and Ukrainians were the same, at least from the nationhood aspect of Kievan Rus before the Golden Horde.
AS they exist now, both nations share the same past and history.
Did General Lee study Washington’s campaigns to win battles or did Grant... Or both?
Most significant is that a Russian general is discussing a huge UKRAINIAN offensive and that Russia must prepare defensive fortifications.
While Ukraine is increasing its overall manpower, the most significant development is tens of thousands of armored troops to be introduced this Spring. They are training with Bradley’s, tanks will just be an icing on the cake.
These highly maneuvering forces are expected to enable the Ukrainians to be able to push the Russians out. That won’t be immediate, it will be a lengthy process, unless the Russian lines crumble.
But if the Russians were simply going to overwhelm Ukraine with a winter offensive, they wouldn’t be talking about building a defense against attacks in April.
So the response of neocommunists here is that Ukraine is “criminal” for building such a large army. That is laughable.
I am not disputing that number, but could you support it with a citation?
What are the actual numbers of killed and wounded on both sides? It's difficult to wade through the numbers being thrown about.
“So the response of neocommunists here is that Ukraine is “criminal” for building such a large army. That is laughable”
You are laughable for thinking Ukraine has the manpower to build such a large army.
You appear to have absolutely no consideration for reality or human life.. Hate controls you.
How many Bradleys?
You can write all the twisted bizarre things you want about Ukraine, but they are kicking Russia’s behind.
And they are about to launch a major offensive in Spring, not with mass troops, but with new armored units against the massed Russian forces.
Russia knows this is coming, read the article the Russian General describing how Ukraine will attempt to take Crimea.
He wasn’t writing about taking Kiev.
Not bad for what you describe as a “rump” state entering the “graveyard”
Maybe you should write articles for the Russian generals. They are far more realistic than you.
Enough to support 70,000 new armor backed troops. That’s what’s training in the US and Europe right now.
That’s why the Russian general is talking about Uke attempts to cut Crimea in half. They aren’t going to do that with a mass of infantry, they will do it by exploiting weaknesses and driving around the Russian lines with mechanized divisions.
If you read articles on this, the Americans have been discussing the Ukrainians adopting these highly mobile tactics.
I don’t predict outcomes, just sharing what I see.
How many Bradleys?
Who do I hate dude?
If you’d read instead of foam, you’d know I explained the Spring offensive will NOT involve massed troops, it will be spearheaded by new mechanized units who will be introduced in Spring.
Everybody knows this is coming. It’s American mobile tactics and involves the quickest advances with the least loss of life.
That’s just reality. The Russians know it’s coming.
Go find out. If you don’t understand any of this, what good is it to tell you the details?
This is the plan for the Spring offensive. I’m sorry if you don’t like it.
Translation:
Stomping feet—why doesnt Ukraine just give up to my Lord and Savior Putin!!!
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