Posted on 02/16/2023 6:41:51 AM PST by Salohcin
The head of Russia's mercenary outfit Wagner said it could take months to capture the embattled Ukraine city of Bakhmut and slammed Moscow's "monstrous bureaucracy" for slowing military gains.
Russia has been trying to encircle the battered industrial city and wrest it ahead of Feb. 24, the first anniversary of what it terms its "special military operation" in Ukraine.
"I think it's (going to be in) March or in April," Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin said in one of several messages posted online overnight.
"To take Bakhmut you have to cut all supply routes. It's a significant task," he said, adding: "Progress is not going as fast as we would like."
"Bakhmut would have been taken before the New Year, if not for our monstrous military bureaucracy ... and the spokes that are put in the wheels daily," he added.
Prigozhin has previously accused the Russian military of attempting to "steal" victories from Wagner, a sign of his rising clout and the potential for dangerous rifts in Moscow.
The fierce fighting for the eastern industrial city is now the longest-running battle of Russia's intervention and Moscow's key military objective.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to have annexed the Donetsk region where Bakhmut lies last year but his forces are fighting off Ukrainian troops there.
The capture of Bakhmut would be a major win for Moscow but analysts say its capture would be mainly symbolic as the salt-mining town holds little strategic value.
Ukrainian forces are determined not to cede any ground ahead of an anticipated counter-offensive in the spring.
Widening rift
Prigohzin, who is close to Putin, said the speed of Russian progress in the grinding battle would depend on whether Ukraine continued to send reserves to hold the city.
His private fighting force, which has recruited prisoners from across Russia with the promise of amnesty, has claimed a lead role in recent battles in east Ukraine.
He announced last week that Wagner would no longer be tapping prisons to fill its ranks and on Thursday warned this would also impact the fighting.
"Of course, at some point the number of units will drop and as a result the number of tasks that we can perform will not be what we want," he added.
Wagner's claims to have captured ground without help from the regular army has spurred friction with senior military leadership.
'Ready to fight'
Moscow is also pursuing a campaign of trying to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure by firing drones and missiles.
Kyiv said Thursday it had shot down 16 missiles from the latest barrage of two dozen launched overnight from planes and ships in the Black Sea.
"Unfortunately, (the missiles hit) in the north and west of Ukraine," presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said.
Dnipropetrovsk regional Governor Serhiy Lysak posted images on social media of firefighters working among the debris of partially destroyed homes in the central province.
The strikes killed a 79-year-old woman, Lysak said.
The Russian aerial attacks have left millions in the cold and dark in winter.
With Russia still battering the energy grid — despite what analysts say is a dwindling stockpile of long-range projectiles — fears have steadily mounted of a potential new Russian attack from the north.
Russia had launched the nearly year-old offensive from its soil and Belarus, ruled by Kremlin-ally Alexander Lukashenko.
During a rare interview with international media including AFP on Thursday, Lukashenko said his country would "only" join Russia's offensive in Ukraine if Belarus is attacked first by Kyiv.
"I'm ready to fight together with the Russians from the territory of Belarus in one case only: if so much as one soldier from (Ukraine) comes to our territory with a gun to kill my people," he said.
Separately, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen arrived in Kyiv Thursday to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.
"I came to say: Israel stands by Ukraine and by the Ukrainian people in their difficult time," Cohen wrote on Twitter.
Shortly after arrival, the minister visited the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, the site of an alleged massacre of Ukrainian civilians.
"We cannot remain indifferent to these difficult images and to the stories of atrocities which I heard here. Israel condemns any intentional attack on innocent people," he wrote on Twitter.
Israel has adopted a cautious approach since Russian forces invaded Ukraine last February, seeking to maintain neutrality between the warring sides.
Is mud season about to become a factor?
I still think there missle shoot down rates are bogus. 16/24 is 67% kill rate.
The worlds best anti-missile defense is our Patriot system and it’s accurate: “The Army initially said the Patriot achieved an 80 percent success rate in Saudi Arabia and 50 percent in Israel. Those claims later were scaled back to 70 percent and 40 percent.”.
Yet Ukraine has a motley collection of various missile defense systems, is working in an energy starved grid with less trained men in the chaotic environment of full war and they are more or less equal to our best?
Riiiiight!!!
The difference is that the current Russian missiles no longer have advanced navigational and deception electronics
The cognitive dissonance among that group should be very high right now.
The nations of greater Russia (Belarus, Russia, and the Ukraine) will always be plagued by monstrous bureacracies.
It’s their way of life.
Yes, the mud season will be a factor. It normally starts sometime in late February or in March. This has been a relatively mild winter in Europe, so it may arrive early. Even if it starts late, the uncertainty of its timing will play havoc on any military planning.
Is mud season about to become a factor?
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Weather wise it looks like the Spring thaw will begin next week.
I assume you are referring to Desert Storm, which happened in 1991.
During Desert Storm, Iraq fired Scud missiles into Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The Scud missile is a Mach 4 ballistic missile...very difficult to shoot down.
In this war, Russia is firing Air Launched and Sea Launched cruise missiles. These missiles are subsonic and relatively easy to shoot down. If they pass within range of a surface to air site, the shoot down rate is close to 100%.
Ukraine does not have enough SAM sites for overlapping coverage. RU missiles that make it to their target simply did not fly close enough to a UKR SAM site to be shot down.
RU has launched some hypersonic missiles and some short range ballistic missiles. I believe none of these have been shot down.
Ukraine will get Patriot systems in the future. When that occurs, the shoot down rate will increase.
This guy has been pretty accurate. I trust what he says over what the Russia fan boys say. I support Russia in the war.
Yup, they do enjoy their rubbles
:)
So much that they even got the post removed
Some have said that Bakhmut had fallen.
“”Now that Bakhmut has fallen, Zelensky is definitely feeling sorry he provoked Russia, but there is always time for The Global Grift.
6 posted on 2/8/2023,””
Some have said that Bakhmut had fallen.
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Not today.
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