Freepers:
Posted on 02/15/2023 11:42:12 AM PST by familyop
Two things are happening in the Black Sea which together could shift the dynamic in Russia’s favor. Russia has copied Ukraine’s’ maritime drones and started using them. At the same time, a decision by Elon Musk to limit Starlink use may stop Ukraine using their own.
As the saying goes, Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. The Russian military has copied Ukraine’s now famous ‘Maritime Drone’ and begun using it against Ukrainian targets.
At the same time, Ukraine’s own ability to deploy maritime drones looks to have been massively reduced. SpaceX has said that it will prevent Ukraine using its Starlink system for its drones.
The Black Sea appears to be becoming more Russian friendly again.
Russia Adapts To Pose New Threat
On Feb 10 a small maritime drone (USV – uncrewed surface vessel) passed through the humanitarian grain corridor to Odesa and rammed a bridge. The large explosion undoubtedly caused some damage to Zatoka bridge, although assessments are unclear at this point. The bridge, which crosses the estuary of the Dniester River, is an important road and rail link in southern Ukraine. It has been targeted before by Russian missiles but this latest attack ushers in a new phase.
The bridge is easily reachable from the Black Sea, which presented Russia with a new opportunity: Explosive laden drone boats.
The exact details of the Russian drone boat are subject to speculation. Neither side has shared specific details. However defense analysts can make some deductions and form hypothesis. What follows is the most likely.
Russia’s Version Of The Maritime Drone The drone boat is like a simple construction appearing similar to a small speedboat. It is uncrewed and instead controlled by radio or satellite links. The bandwidth of the connection, how much data can flow, will shape how it can be used. If the data rate is high enough a video feed can be used. This would allow real-time targeting. At the other end of the spectrum, it may be pre-programmed with coordinates which would only allow it to hit unmoving targets. Both could work and have their pros and cons.
The explosive boat can be towed part of the way to its target by other small boats. The Russian Navy’s Raptor assault boats, themselves a copy of yet Swedish CB90 concept, could be used. These have sustained high performance, decent seakeeping, and a basic armament for self defense. They could also function as mother ships, controlling the drones during the attack.
A group of fast boats would set out from Sevastopol or other Russian bases and sail towards the Ukrainian controlled coast. One or more would be towing the explosive ‘maritime drones’. The drones would have to operate in the grain corridor set up to allow merchant ships to safely sail to/from Odesa.
Starlink: Ukraine’s Maritime Drone Problem
The announcement that SpaceX, a company founded by Elon Musk, will limit how Ukraine can use its Starlink satellite service is bad news for the countries’ military. The impact on frontline use is only slowly emerging, but it is clear that drone usage will be affected.
Ukraine’s innovative maritime drones have been used to attack the Russian Navy in Sevastopol. And on November 18 2022 one even reached Novorossiysk. These attacks did not sink any Russian warships but they did contribute to keeping their navy at bay. New harbor defenses were implemented and many fewer Russian ships ventured out.
The maritime drones were able to operate so effectively because they used Starlink. This provided low-latency high-resolution data connections which appear hard to the Russians to jam. Therefore the drones could be equipped with multi-channel optical devices. This gave their pilots, hundreds of miles away, comparatively excellent situational awareness.
Therefore the maritime drones could adapt their mission to hit targets of opportunity and moving targets. This means that as well as ships in harbors, ones operating in open water were at risk. And especially those near the Crimean coast which were safe from Ukraine’s Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
So the loss of Starlink will likely be a limiter on Ukraine’s maritime drone operations. It is unlikely that Ukraine will give up, but compromises and reengineering will have to take place. And they will likely be less versatile.
Consequently we may see Black Sea operations enter a new phase with bolder operations by Russia. On February 13 one or more Russian Improved-KILO Class submarines made a surface transit from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol, by implication to load with Kalibr cruise missiles for a future attack. This transit was risky, but with the threat of Ukrainian maritime drones diminished, less risky then before.
Why would Elon Musk do that? I didn’t read that in the article. Funny. Nothing comes up on Google searches either. The Truth is out tgere, you should hunt it down.
Why would Musk do what?
Ukes were using Starlink to direct their drones to drop chemical weapons.
A step too far for Mr. Musk.
My guess is it would make it harder to sell any military version of Starlink if he’s giving it away to the Ukrainians. Didn’t he ask them to pay a while back and they refused?
Elon said he intended the gift of Starlink services to the Ukraine to be civilian use, not to be used by the military.
Because they wanted it for free. Insulted him and demanded MORE for free. Then when he dared float his idea for a peace plan to stop the fighting, the Uke Ambassador told him to “Go F*ck yourself”. Then they put him on the Uke assassination list.
Then they started using his system as a weapons targeting system.
Bottom line, they are rude entitled unreasonable A-holes so he had to cut them off.
Give peace a chance.
But Joe Biden says Putin must return Ukraine to its Soviet Union borders.
Musk already explained why. The people of Ukraine still have Starlink iternet.
n
Musk has said Starlink was not for warring or for use in escalating a war.
Perhaps Europe could provide internet for warring.
Musk’s Starlink satellites accelerating development of drone warfare
C4ISRNet
By Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo
February 14, 2023
https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2023/02/14/musks-starlink-satellites-accelerating-development-of-drone-warfare/
“Such matters are also challenging considering that SpaceX has not only received significant subsidies from the U.S. government, but that the U.S. Agency for International Development reportedly also paid the company to send over 1,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine.”
Recall reading that Musk did not want his tech involved in killing people.
Russia has said publicly - if your Starlink is used a military tool against us, we will treat it as such.
Musk has a lot of money invested in it, and he’s trying to sell it to places like India, etc...
He needs to walk a fine line and not appear to be a total stooge of the US military industrial complex.
Russia has said publicly - if your Starlink is used a military tool against us, we will treat it as such.
Musk has come out and said he wants no part of the war part.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/09/ukraine-russia-war-starlink-drones-musk-spacex/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spacex-ukrainian-troops-satellite-technology/index.html
For once, I actually agree with Musk on something.
Give peace a chance.
But Joe Biden says Putin must return Ukraine to its Soviet Union borders.
So while plying the high moral ground, Musk has sided, inadvertently, with the Russians. Putin must be pleased.
Elon said he intended the gift of Starlink services to the Ukraine to be civilian use, not to be used by the military.
—
There is no practical difference now between the APU military and the civilian uses.
'Cause only Uke Nazis are so foul they can piss off Musk.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.