Posted on 02/12/2023 6:13:35 AM PST by delta7
A long but thorough observation of the facts: from Odessa, to Lvov, to Vlad’s defined strategy to the collective West’s strategy, to the Ukies recent “ Volksturm” mobilization ( 16 year olds forced registration)….
The Western war cheerleaders will not like this dose of reality.
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“ Recently, there is a lot of talk about where the escalating spiral will end. Will it conclude in World War III? Will there be a nuclear war? What are the determining factors? And what would indicate World War III is imminent? I’ll go through these questions in detail from a strategic perspective.
But, before I do, I’d like to write another short dedication to an author and analyst, that I value very much. I’m talking about Andrei Raevsky, better known under his pseudonym “The Vineyard Saker”. I’ve read his blog regularly since 2015, and before that for years occasionally. I learned in this time a lot from him with regards to strategic and comprehensive thinking. This is what he does wonderfully. Unfortunately, but understandably, he decided to stop maintaining and writing his blog. Thank you, Andrei, for everything, for recommending my blog and for all the analysis I/we have been able to read for years and even decades. All the best for you and your family, going forwards.
So, will there be a third world war? I would say yes, with absolute certainty. But there are a few questions left that need to be clarified before we start to panic. I personally, currently, see no need for panic. Yet. But about which questions do I speak? About the following:
When will WW3 break out? Under which circumstances? Which alliances will participate? Where will the main battlefield be? Ultimately: Will the big three powers directly clash on a large scale against each other? I don’t have answers to these questions. But you can see that these are strategic questions, not operational questions, such as those we are currently considering in Ukraine. I don’t think that the operational questions, whether 100 tanks will be supplied to Ukraine, or even 200 fighter jets, will decide anything about the likelihood of World War III.
What I hope to do here is to help readers develop their strategic thinking so that they can see past the short-sighted operational questions I mentioned before.
Preconditions
We at BMA developed a strategic and operational picture that is still valid. In fact, we can say that from my last operational update, there is nothing to add. I can go even further. I see now, step by step, all the major and well-known podcast analysts jumping on my train. All are now talking instead of big arrows, of methodical grinding on several theatres, to put as much pressure as needed on the Ukrainians so they can collapse. That’s perfectly fine for me.
For people, that haven’t read my analysis yet, I strongly recommend reading the following articles in this sequence:
Analysis of Phase 3 of the war Roles of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Belarus, Poland and Odessa BMA prediction about the Russian offensive Some backgrounds, why we don’t expect “Big Arrow” offensives Further weapon shipments
Let’s start with weapon shipments. We will see later in this article, that I assume, that the war has escalated far more than both sides would have ever thought. From my personal standpoint, I assume, and it could have been observed in my former articles, that Russia planned with escalations up to the destruction of the third iteration of the “Ukrainian” army.
First iteration: Destruction of the initial Ukrainian army. (Until April 2022) Second iteration: Destruction of the Ukrainian army, equipped with Western light equipment, designed to buffer off Russia, until the “third iteration” has been trained and equipped abroad. The second iteration had been defeated until the end of July 2022. Third iteration: Soldiers trained abroad and equipped with all the weapons, that countries with old Soviet stockpiles could have spared. Destroyed at the day, General Gerasimov took over command of the SMO. 11th of January 2023. Fourth iteration: This army is currently in the making and is already partially fed into the battle to prevent the frontlines from collapsing. Which exactly is their purpose. To keep the battle (Scorched Earth) up as long as physically possible. This army consists of two components, which should make sure, that this goal will be achieved. Professional army: People that are mobilised since a few months and trained abroad, will make the professional part of this army. These are mainly “ideologically confused, highly motivated” people. There is also one single word for this. They will be trained on new western weapons and equipment. There is a high probability, that the initial plan, a few months ago, has been, to use them for another offensive, to produce another “defeat” for the Russians before the total collapse of Ukraine. But as it looks, the events have been faster. There certainly is no room any longer for any kind of offensives. This units will most likely be used for operational mobile defence. In other words, they will be used, where it hurts the most, to slow down the collapse. See BMA’s five theatres. The big question is, will this army be used wisely on the West side of the Dnieper in a mobile way, to inflict the most possible damage to the Russians, or will it simply be fed into the Donbass meatgrinder and be buried along with the Ukrainian state? Forced conscript army: As far as I can remotely judge it, I have the feeling that all “ideologically confused highly motivated Ukrainians” are “depleted” or in the process of being depleted within the fourth iteration fire brigade. See above. One of the reasons of course is, that the government’s propaganda, that the Ukrainian army had almost no losses, has fallen apart. It is now very well known within Ukraine that everyone who is drafted will either die, be seriously wounded or, in the best case, become a Russian POW. There won’t be anything else left, because one of the goals of the Russians is the full physical annihilation of the Ukrainian army. Which will be achieved until summer 2023. Until then everyone will be dead, wounded or captured. There may be some hardcore “ideologically confused and highly motivated” people that continue fighting, but they will only act on their own, not as part of an organized military. Having said that, we can come back to the conscripts. Since no one wants to die for a lost cause (they know now that it is over and only the dying is left to be done), Ukrainian men are now hiding or otherwise trying to evade the draft. There are now mobile “conscription” teams scouring every city to catch men under any circumstances. The goal of depleting every able-bodied male Ukrainian is still active. Well, these unmotivated people, to put it mildly, will be thrown into trenches to buy time. They have no other prospects than to either be killed or, if they are lucky, captured by the Russians. This is the fourth iteration of the Ukrainian army. The last stand, so to say. One component should buy time by trading blood, the other component should inflict damage on Russia.
This is the last iteration. There are no more human resources left, after this “Volkssturm” mobilisation, to carry on the fight. As I pointed out several times, Ukraine will experience this collapse by summer 2023.
What does it have to do with further weapon deliveries?
Well, the war can only be continued if these last Ukrainians have armoured vehicles. The “confused” Ukrainians are still believing in a victory with Western equipment. They wouldn’t continue the fight or charge Russian positions on their bare feet, without armoured assistance.
The following circumstances apply:
The whole Soviet stock of NATO and Ukraine is depleted. The biggest part of the Ukrainian manpower is depleted. So, a new “Frankenstein” army is being built with all kinds of NATO stuff, to keep the Ukrainians motivated to die for the West. Frankenstein, because it is an incompatible mix of everything, that has no battle value without combined arms ability.
Considering the current state of the Ukrainian army, nothing can help. In fact, it doesn’t matter anymore what the West is delivering. It has zero impact on the outcome of the war. It is only a motivator and enabler for the Ukrainians to keep up the fight, until the last “mobilizable” men are killed or captured. It will fully achieve its goal.
Moreover, it will mean far more dead Russians, since the prolongation of the war means far more dead Russians. Which is NOT good.
Red lines
What about red lines? There are red lines indeed. But I don’t think that Russia is measuring them by the amount and quality of tanks or planes, that are being sent by the West.
I’m personally convinced that the red lines were agreed by Sergei Naryshkin and William Burns in Ankara on November 14, 2022. And these red lines, from my point of view, concern the control and security of territory after the war.
In fact, I assume that all kinds of weapon deliveries would be “tolerated”, but not with pleasure, by the Russians, as long as there is no risk of lost territory. And Ukraine as a whole, except for places that could be negotiated away to other countries, is being considered as Russian territory.
Why is it accepted? The Ukrainian army is mostly defeated. Russia is fighting against the fourth and last iteration. The best people are already dead or have fled. And there is another major reason. I will cover it in the chapter “Wounded animal”.
The last point, I want to cover in this chapter is Germany. Germany of course is being forced to send its tanks to Ukraine. It will have no military consequences, but the calculation is, that Russia would escalate and break up relations with Germany for all times, because of history. The United States desperately wants to destroy the relations between Germany and Russia forever. So, Germany would depend on America and wouldn’t benefit from the new BRICS/SCO-oriented multipolar world order.
Here are some personal thoughts and assumptions:
Germany wants Ukraine to collapse ASAP, so they come out of the hellish situation, on which they are forced in, by America. Russia knows this and keeps backchannel doors open to Germany to manage the transition away from the American grip. I assume the tank deliveries won’t change much if there are no further escalations. However, if NATO troops are part of the escalations, we are in WW3. The West
The West is currently in sharp decline. Economically, militarily and politically.
Nevertheless, we mustn’t forget, that the West has been the dominant power for decades. So, of course, it accumulated a lot of wealth and a large military. And now we come to the problem. Russia, more or less, openly worked on implementing the new multipolar world order around BRICS and the SCO. The Americans were aware of this. At the same time, the American empire, carrying on the work of other empires before it, has been working for the destruction of Russia. Therefore, the strategy to turn all former allies and Soviet States around Russia against them and then trigger the internal collapse in Russia.
Well, both Russia and America activated their corresponding plans in 2022. Everyone wants something, but only one side will prevail. Who wins in Ukraine will achieve its geopolitical goals. At least, that’s what the parties believe. As of now, it should be clear to the politicians and secret services of all Western states, that it is over. Ukraine will soon fall, and with it, the single-polar American-centric world order.
Russia won’t be destroyed.
Goals
What now? Well, the Americans know very well about their fate since their plan in Ukraine failed. Which doesn’t need to be the end of the USA. They can become normal and powerful members of the future multipolar world order. Sitting at the table with the other great powers. I think, there are two possible outcomes.
Exactly this scenario. America becomes a “normal” multipolar power at the table with others. A single new world system emerges, which is controlled by an organisation and not by states. Either a new kind of UN/League of Nations, or a fundamental reconstruction of the UN and purge of “Western” “influence” and “Influencer”. Hence, the “De-Westernification” of the world. America could decide, to stay an “opposite-pole”, against the multipolar world order. Then we would have two systems at the same time, competing against each other. The rest of the West and the BRICS/SCO states, competing and struggling for the contested bloc-free markets, until there is no bloc-free nation left. Unfortunately, I assume, that option two will prevail. Which is the worse option for the world and humankind.
What are the goals of such an America (The West)?
Completely draining power from all its colonies and making them completely dependent on themselves. To secure markets and territory, for the future struggle against the powers of the Heartland. At the same time weakening the Heartland, since Europe is an integral part of it, with a huge potential, if managed correctly. The depletion of the weapon stocks of Europe has the positive side effect that all these weapons will need to be replenished. Since the industrial production costs rose sky-high, for example, because of the blowing up of the gas pipelines (what a coincidence) and many other self-defeating reasons, Europe will struggle to reproduce these stocks themselves. The rationale is, that they will come to America and beg for “cheap” weapons. In fact, America is raping Europe and is forcing them to come back to them and beg for more. Perversion. Or how does Scott Ritter say? Odious!
Wounded animal
Most likely the West didn’t expect that the war would develop as it did. I wrote several times about it. First, they expected that Ukraine would fall within days and then they would organize a guerrilla war. Then, after they saw that Russia was not waging a strategic doctrinal offensive but a SMO, they thought, the West will win.
But none of it is true. Neither did Russia win within days, nor will it lose. In fact, it is defeating the West, its armies and economies in Ukraine. Who would have thought that?
America knows very well what its new role will be, so they are preparing for it by making Europe totally dependent on them, deindustrializing it and draining it for the next decade. Not only Europe, but all other colonies as well, including Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc.
Here is the problem. Since America is well aware of its impending downfall from a superpower to a normal but powerful nation, it struggles with a certain syndrome. When everything is well, all are happy and are competing to claim the success for themselves. When things go south, then the opposite applies. Everyone tries to blame the other. Which is currently the case in America. I will write a separate article about America. So, I’ll go here quickly over it.
There is not one single power that is determining the course of the United States. The ruling oligarchy (the politicians are only “sponsored executioners” of the oligarchy) doesn’t know exactly which way to go. There are powers that want to choose option 1, away from the empire and towards multipolarity and there are also powers who don’t want to go down without a fight. Unfortunately, the majority of the establishment or oligarchy are supporters of the second option. And here we are. America is acting exactly as a wounded wild animal. It is biting, fighting and scratching everyone around it. Which is extremely dangerous for humankind. One mistake, and everyone dies.
This is what we see in Ukraine. Now, everything short of nuclear weapons will be delivered, what could be handled by the few capable Ukrainians left. And it would be idiotic by Russia to make a big deal out of it. It will be managed. Escalation management. Yes, a few thousand Russians more will die. Or if you count the Ukrainians as Russians, a few tens or hundreds of thousands more. But still, the world will survive.
It is up to Russia and the other civilized people to handle the rage of this wounded animal and contain it, so we won’t need to use nuclear weapons or kick-off WW3. That’s why Russia is taking many hard punches, without responding.
Challenge
The challenge is for Russia to win the war in Ukraine without escalating too much, to not trigger any reactions from the West, that could still trigger WW3, over Ukraine.
Currently there is no potential for such an escalation if we consider only the Ukrainian and the Russian army. The Ukrainian Army is soon (by the end of the summer 2023) gone. But the Americans could decide to sacrifice the European armies against Russia as another proxy force. Without American involvement.
It is not impossible, even though I think that the probability is very low.
Think of Polish and other European countries sending own troops to defend Western Ukraine, Odessa or Kiev.
People don’t want it? There is not such a mood? There are no weapons? Who cares?
Create enough false flag operations within the EU and NATO, activate a large media campaign and you will have fanatical Europeans cheering for war and volunteering to march on Moscow.
Such a scenario needs to be avoided. It is called “escalation management”.
Why did I write that Americans would use the Europeans as a proxy force? Well, Europe is no longer interesting for America. They are pivoting to the new hot spot for trade, Asia. Europe is done. It can be used like a used condom, to further weaken Russia. Throwing old stuff and human waves against the Russians is creating losses for Russia. Both, in people and economically. Learn about opportunity costs. These are costs or revenues, that you did not achieve since you chose to do something less favourable. Hence, Russia could prosper by developing trade and relationships with the “New World”. But instead, it would need to fully mobilize and put a huge part of its resources, money and welfare into the military and war. While other market actors are exploiting the absence of Russia on the world markets.
Horror scenario? Yes, but I don’t believe that it will materialize.
Indicators
But we need to discuss it. We are talking about a wounded wild animal. Its actions are totally unpredictable. And it is always doubling down. So, nothing can be excluded. We should be aware of it. And that’s why I decided to write down some important indicators, which would indicate, that a threshold has been crossed, where there is no return.
Overt or covert mobilisation efforts within the big European countries. Overt or covert transition to a wartime economy/production within the big European countries. If the number of mobilized troops of Russia exceeds more than one and a half million men. I’m talking only about the mobilized. Not about the already standing conscript and professional peacetime army. Calmness of Vladimir Putin is gone for a longer time. In fact, he would be visually very angry and his rhetoric would reach levels, never seen before. See his behaviour from November 2021 until February 2022, for a small version of what we would see. Active and official participation of NATO troops in hostilities against Russia. Officially breaking off relations between Russia and major NATO countries. Withdrawing of diplomatic missions and personnel, etc. Total severing of all economic relations. Russia withdrawing from many not-crucial markets without visible reasons. Russia withdrawing from Syria. Overt or covert full mobilisation in Russia. Withdrawal of the Americans from important and major regions without a clear reason. Say, a sudden withdrawal of the Americans from the Middle East, including its navy. The Americans would try to bring as much equipment and as many troops as possible out of harm’s way before the Russian barrages start to hit American bases worldwide.”
“It’s about the economy, stupid” to quote James Carville.
Alex seems to have a sensible point about the state of the Ukrainian army and is correct about what comes next if, say, British pilots or German tank crews try to come to the rescue.
The rest is geopolitical speculation. Could be, or not.
Sod off, Swampy.
This article is correct as Russia plays a huge role in the last days when it attacks Israel and is destroyed in Northen Israel by Israeli Nukes. It will take 7 months to bury the dead in Northen Israel.
And that’s where all these machinations by world “leaders” will end up (I believe) - somehow, a “hook in the jaw”
Ezekiel 38
Iran to be involved, eventually
Northern Israel will see nuclear detonations over Russian and Arab forces..
Ping
Thank you for posting this. It’s thorough and thought-provoking. While I’m not comfortable with a lot of his conclusions, he can back his conclusions with the kind of facts and research you won’t see in Mainstream Media outlets.
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