PERSISTENT DELUSION AMONG THE AMERICAN AND NATO DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT

There are three recent articles I want to make sure you have read because they reveal the delusion that continues to afflict U.S. military leaders, pundits and the establishment media.

First up is US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who provided some surprising candor during a speech in late January to a Swedish defense conference but failed to comprehend what he was saying:

The heavy casualties and massive ammunition consumption seen during the war in Ukraine has top NATO commanders worried. . . .

“The scale of this war is out of proportion with all of our recent thinking,” said Cavoli, who is also head of US European Command. “But it is real and we must contend with it.”

One lesson is the importance of an adequate defense industrial base capable of providing the necessary equipment and supplies to satisfy the voracious appetite of large-scale, high-intensity warfare. The US, Russia, and Europe are already scrambling to ramp up production of artillery shells after letting their munitions stockpiles and factories run down after the Cold War. https://www.businessinsider.co.za/ukraine-war-scale-out-of-proportion-with-nato-planning-cavoli-2023-2 Yes. Having an adequate defense industrial base is critical. The West no longer has one and, assuming it found the will and resources to recreate one, we are talking years. Does Cavoli not grasp this reality?

Even then, it became clear that NATO — which has expanded from 12 founding members to 30 members today — was dependent on US support. In Libya, for example, NATO air forces ran short of precision-guided bombs after the first month.

That Moscow is buying artillery shells from North Korea suggests that Russia’s military is no shape to fight NATO and Ukraine. However, NATO’s frantic attempts to scrounge up weapons and ammunition for Ukraine shows the alliance doesn’t have much depth to its arsenals.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/ukraine-war-scale-out-of-proportion-with-nato-planning-cavoli-2023-2 If the Supreme US Commander in Europe does not understand that Russia is not running out of shells or missiles, is he ignorant or is his staff hiding battlefield facts from him? I do congratulate Cavoli on his No Shit Analysis moment when he admits that NATO has no strategic depth. But he is engaging in major hopium by repeating the nonsense that Russia is in no shape to fight NATO. Errors in judgment like that get people killed.

Next is a ridiculous piece by Andrew A. Michta, Ukraine Can Achieve a Strategic Win over Russia. The West Must Step Up. Michta has quite a pedigree:

Andrew A. Michta is the dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies and a new Contributing Editor for 1945. He is the former Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College and former Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewMichta. The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. Michta is one more piece of evidence supporting Andrei Martyanov’s trenchant criticism of the pseudo-intellectuals that pander to the Defense establishment. It is a pity that Sigmund Freud is not around to do some much needed psycho analysis on the Neo Con community. People like Michta display a form of schizophrenia in their articles. Consider the following:

In the wake of the mass destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure and the flight of its citizens (an estimated 9 million Ukrainian refugees have passed through Poland alone), a fight with an enemy commanding approximately four times Ukraine’s population can only end one way.

So Ukraine needs forces to allow it to break out of the current stalemate, check the Russian advance, and maneuver to achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield. It needs to fight on its own terms. To do this it needs modern Western main battle tanks and long-range fires – in greater numbers than promised so far, and, most importantly, aircraft. Yep. More Cow Bell. Michta correctly notes that Ukraine is outnumbered and outgunned. So what is his wise recommendation for doing a turn around? Send in more battle tanks, long-range fires and combat aircraft that Russia has demonstrated the ability to destroy. Yeah, that makes sense.

Michta, a professional leech who guzzles at the tit of the Defense industry, offers a solution that is certain to warm the hearts of the corporate chiefs at General Dynamics, Lockheed, Raytheon and many others. Happy Days are here again. We need more billions to stop the Rooskies.

Unless the United States and its European allies make urgently needed decisions to invest in their defense industry, it may become impossible to supply Ukraine in the long run—even if the political will remains. Simply put, looking at the rates at which weapons and munitions are being consumed in this war, the West needs to move its defense industry away from the “just-in-time,” low-volume paradigm of the past thirty years to a “just-in-case” approach, whereby it amasses the quantities of weapons and munitions needed to sustain a protracted fight with a near-peer adversary. . . .

But the West should consider another possibility: Given the right equipment, the Ukrainian army could defeat the Russian military within the next six months, setting in motion forces in Russia that could implode Putin’s regime. In Russian history, military defeats have usually been accompanied by internal fracturing—including the 1905 revolution that followed Russia’s defeat by Japan, the February and Bolshevik revolutions in 1917 in the wake of Russia’s defeat by Germany, and the 1991 implosion of the Soviet Union following its rout in Afghanistan. . . . I could tolerate this nonsense if it was written by a 24 year old grad student with no memory of the Cold War and no understanding of Russia’s history of dealing with foreign invaders, but Michta is experienced. The Ukrainian Army has not defeated the Russians in a set piece battle since the start of Russia’s Special Military Operation. Urkaine, with the full help of NATO, was unable to mount an offensive to rescue its trapped forces in Mariupol. A similar catastrophe for Ukraine is unfolding right now in Donetsk along the defense line that stretches from Bakhmut to Seversk in the north.

I find it especially ironic that Michta cites the Soviet Union’s “rout” in Afghanistan without acknowledging the ass whipping the United States endured in August 2021 despite our extravagantly expensive military machine. Russia did not flee Afghanistan with desperate inhabitants clinging to departing air craft and plunging to their deaths. We did that. At least Russia executed a competent withdrawal. Look in the mirror Michta. People who live in glass houses should be cautious about tossing rocks.

I will give Michta credit for one moment of lucidity in the penultimate paragraph of his article:

This is a system-transforming war. Should Ukraine lose, not only would Russia and China be emboldened to press their advantage. Recriminations over the failure to adequately support Ukraine between countries on NATO’s eastern flank and their allies further West could also put a severe strain on the alliance—and possibly fracture it. The consequences of this war thus reach far beyond the question of who wins in Ukraine. That is the core of the truth — the Ukraine war has exposed NATO as a toothless tiger that cannot sustain an industrial war against a first world military machine like Russia.

Delusional thinking is not limited to the U.S. pundits. The Germans also have jumped on the crazy train. Writing in Der Spiegel, René Pfister, Ann-Dorit Boy und Matthias Gebauer offer their proposal for “How Might the Violence in Ukraine Come to an End?” They proceed by presenting false straw-men:

When Russian President Vladimir Putin marched into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he clearly believed that he would be able to conquer Kyiv within just a few days and install a puppet government. With the invasion, Putin was hoping to fulfill his dream of resurrecting the Soviet Union, but now, he finds himself not only fighting against a powerful Ukrainian army, but also for his own political survival. If Putin is able to swallow up Ukraine, why would he shy away from doing the same to other republics that were once part of the Soviet Union – such as Moldova or the Baltic states? If Putin were victorious in Ukraine, might not Beijing see that as an invitation to conquer Taiwan? There you have it — the new Domino theory. I am old enough to remember when Commie dominoes were the raison d’etre for the U.S. war in Vietnam, Central America and Afghanistan. The Soviets were hell bent on world domination and we had to stop them. Let us call this what it is — Domino 2.0.

The Der Spiegel writers repeat the delusional meme that has anchored the West during the last year:

More than a few Western military experts are cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a Ukrainian victory, not least because Moscow has repeatedly stumbled on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military, by contrast, has managed to win back half of the territory that Russia occupied immediately following the February 24 invasion. . . .

“The Russian proposition is, to me, straightforward,” says American military expert Michael Kofman. It hinges on grinding down the strong Ukrainian military with wave upon wave of Russian fighters even if they are poorly trained and equipped. For Ukraine to withstand the Russian onslaught, Kyiv badly needs more weapons and munitions. They cannot leave that Cowbell alone. They want more. Much more! The authors grudgingly acknowledge that as the conflict drags on NATO’s unity is fraying:

The perceived foot-dragging by some members of the Western coalition has triggered frustration in Central European countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries as well as in Ukraine. Increasingly, that same frustration has been building among Biden’s supporters in Washington. The Der Spiegel scribes offer a boorish assessment of what a Russian victory will look like and insist that Putin, even if he chalks up a victory, will still be on the ropes. They even mention he may have cancer.

These three articles encapsulate the juvenile, short sighted, daft strategic thinking that is the foundation of the NATO effort to destroy Russia. They ignore Russia’s unequaled natural resources (which gives it self-suffiency not enjoyed by any of the other major powers); its robust, technologically sophisticated industrial base (Russia produces viable space rockets, the United States does not); and its deeply rooted sense of national identity. They also do not grasp the devastating tactics the Russians are methodically executing on the battlefield — the Ukrainian Army and equipment are being mauled and the West has emptied its military stores and is in no condition to provide replacements any time soon.

Setting The Record Straight On Ukraine. What You Need To Know by Mike Whitney

On February 16, 2022, a full week before Putin sent combat troops into Ukraine, the Ukrainian Army began the heavy bombardment of the area (in east Ukraine) occupied by mainly ethnic Russians.
Officials from the Observer Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were located in the vicinity at the time and kept a record of the shelling as it took place. What the OSCE discovered was that the bombardment dramatically intensified as the week went on until it reached a peak on February 19, when a total of 2,026 artillery strikes were recorded. Keep in mind, the Ukrainian Army was, in fact, shelling civilian areas along the Line of Contact that were occupied by other Ukrainians.

We want to emphasize that the officials from the OSCE were operating in their professional capacity gathering first-hand evidence of shelling in the area. What their data shows is that Ukrainian Forces were bombing and killing their own people. This has all been documented and has not been challenged.

So, the question we must all ask ourselves is this: Is the bombardment and slaughter of one’s own people an ‘act of war’?

Easy to explain: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”

All these “career professionals” will rationalize whatever is needed to keep their revenue stream intact.

LOL. Of course the war will end on “Putin’s terms” because the Kremlin and its useful idiots will always declare victory no matter the outcome. Russia has been exposed as a fake and Potemkin society but sadly its duped fellow travelers will never understand that.

I’m not worried.

The military genius who abandoned $85,000,000,000 of US materiel and thousands of US personnel in Afghanistan in the middle of the night is leading the way to war with Russia.

We are in good hands.

“They ignore Russia’s its robust, technologically sophisticated industrial base (Russia produces viable space rockets, the United States does not); and its deeply rooted sense of national identity.”

Haha, is this article from The Onion? Russia has mastered no technologies that weren’t left behind by the USSR. Any using Russian computers? Driving Russian cars? Flying Russian planes?

And for national identity what part of that identity are the highest rates of alcoholism, abortion, and AIDS in Europe?

“Good article thanks for posting.”

Are you actually moronic enough to believe this is a “good article” or are you being sarcastic?

(On the internet it is sometimes hard to tell)

IGNORE
———
To your own peril. … and keep drinking the western MSM whiskey. Didn’t you learn anything from Trump’s warning about fake western news?

The war cheerleaders ( like Biden’s vax hoax and mandates) have been deceived. Carry on war cheerleaders, your road leads to destruction.

Some people read the first few lines which when they are reassured that the article agrees with their opinion, they bless and praise the posting. If they actually read the article they would know that it was a poorly written article with lots of jargon words like hopium and leech guzzles at the tit.

—> Russia has been exposed as a fake and Potemkin society

Very encouraged to hear you think there is no need for western involvement against such a hollow foe!

At last I agree with you!

You left out a few details. The OSCE reported increased shelling by BOTH SIDES. Those more 2,000 plus artillery strikes included violations by the Russian-backed “separatists.” The OSCE also never attributed the acceleration of the ceasefire violations as being started by the Ukrainian government side. The OSCE reports also don’t make any claims that the Ukrainians were deliberately targeting civilian sites rather than military targets. Finally, the OSCE has reported that the “separatists” on many occasions stationed heavy equipment, in violation of Minsk II, next to civilian hospitals, schools, and apartments.

I have actually read the OSCE reports, have you? They are easy to find:
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine-closed

NATO — which has expanded from 12 founding members to 30 members today

NATO has become bloated with far too many inconsequential countries that even students of geography have difficulty locating and whose militaries would be nothing more than showpieces in a war. Unfortunately, each of these countries have the potential be tripwires to spark WW III.

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