Posted on 02/03/2023 9:29:55 AM PST by Vlad0
Is Donald Trump the clear favorite and front-runner to win the Republican nomination? Or is he badly weakened and even an underdog against Ron DeSantis?
At the onset of the Republican campaign, the polls are exceptionally divided on Trump’s support among Republican primary voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
If you are interested in polling methodology this will be a good article for you. Otherwise, less so.
His conclusions:
"the consensus among probability polls suggests that the polls showing a relatively weak Trump are closer to the truth."
Nearly every nonpartisan state poll shows him running a few points worse than his performance in the same state in the 2016 primary.
Trump won the nomination with an approval rating in the mid 30s in 2016. That's because there were a lot of single-digit candidates who had their own supporters, but none who could consistently get more support thant Trump.
That suggests to me that Trump will again benefit if there is a crowded field with differentiated candidates who has some core appeal. (Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and maybe Rand Paul early on all fit in this category).
The worst case scenario for Trump would be a one-on-one primary season race against DeSantis, with few or no other viable and attractive candidates in the race.
So far it looks like Nikki Haley, DeSantis and John Bolton are going to throw their hats in the ring. That seems more like the latter (1 on 1) than a redo of the 2016 "Trump and the 7 dwarves" campaign, which he emerged the nominee from.
If Trump doesn’t make an about-face on vaccines he’ll be in trouble.
If it looks like Biden will be the Dem candidate I will vote for Trump in the primaries. If it is Newsome or Michelle then I will vote for DeSantis in the primaries. Trump will not stand a chance against a younger looking man or a woman.
In before the DeSantis is running/DeSanctimonius is a Globalist crowd.
Trump has turned himself into a stinky pile of smelly dung. He is toast.
You’re posting threads sourced from the NY Times aka “The Slimes”?
Why not post threads sourced from the DNC?
Your’e on the wrong website. Go back to DUh.
elon musk for president 2024...
our turn to install an ineligible african-american in the white hospice...
we’re having a trump flag burning party tonight in my neighborhood in my area of florida...
a trump roast... 😁
he shouldn’t have trashed our governor’s reputation...
Three cheers for the NYT!! Whom is very admired on FR
“In before the DeSantis is running/DeSanctimonius is a Globalist crowd.”
...and they put down Dems for talking points.
Why not post threads sourced from the DNC?
Indeed, we should only post articles by Sundance at The "Conservative" Treehouse and polling from Trafalgar.
They've really got their fingers on the pulse of Republican primary voters.
Lol
Only to zealots here
NYT gets posted here regularly for the past 20+ years
It’s when people like what’s being put forth by them, and this is an opinion piece, that people are noting
If Biden runs Sore Loser Unelectable Trump only loses +/- 27 states and we may narrowly keep the House. If it is anyone with an ounce of charisma and youth, Republicans can look at a 33+ State to potential Goldwater level ass kicking and a loss of the House and potential Dem Senate creeping closer to 60 (unlikely, the math isn’t in their favor as much in the Senate). If you want 2 years of a true Progressive Liberal with a rubber stamp Congress let’s go ahead and nominate Sore Loser Unelectable Trump. A platform based on crying about a stolen election and revenge on the other party will lose us the election and much more.
I generally agree with you. Also, I can’t remember a single time anyone really knew who the nominees would be until around 9-12 months before the election. It’s almost always close until the last minute.
Even freaking Biden was on the last on the list this far out.
Good Lord! This is madness.
1) Donald Trump is the only declared candidate.
2) The first PRIMARY election is significantly more than a year in the future.
3) Polls aren’t intended to measure public opinion. Polls are intended to INFLUENCE public opinion.
4) The communists at the New York Times are your deadly enemies. They’re stirring up trouble to weaken our side.
I’m kind of wondering who will come out of left field this cycle. We know who the established players are, but there is usually a curve ball at some point. Trump was the curve in the 2016 cycle.
Did you just insinuate Michelle is good looking?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.