Posted on 01/28/2023 7:53:34 PM PST by SeekAndFind
For those of you who have been watching tensions growing across the Taiwan Strait and becoming nervous about the possibility that we might wind up in a hot war with China, you might take some comfort in knowing that you’re not alone. In fact, a four-star Air Force general is alarmed enough over the situation that he sent out a memo to his troops on the subject. General Mike Minihan predicted that the United States will be at war with China by 2025 and urged his people to practice with their sidearms and “aim for the head.” But this memo has already come under scrutiny and Minihan might not be the best source to rely on for such prognostications. (NBC News)
A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing “a clip” at a target, and “aim for the head.”
In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”
Air Mobility Command has nearly 50,000 service members and nearly 500 planes and is responsible for transport and refueling.
I’m not going to completely dismiss the general’s concerns out of hand. Plenty of us have been watching the situation in Taiwan with trepidation. China has been ratcheting up the tensions with frequent and aggressive military drills and Xi Jinping has made no secret of the fact that he wants to “reintegrate” the island nation with the mainland. China has also been rapidly expanding its naval and air warfare capabilities, so we need to be taking them seriously.
But as I mentioned above, Minihan is a rather imperfect messenger for a situation such as this. First of all, as military analyst Dr. James Joyner points out today at Outside the Beltway, the general is a cargo pilot working in logistics. If any of his people wind up in a shootout with the Chinese, things will have gone well and truly off the deep end.
The memo comes across as a bit silly, especially given that Minihan is a cargo pilot commanding the logistics side of the Air Force, not a fighter or bomber pilot commanding a warfighting force. Things have gone horribly wrong if one of Minihan’s people needs to fire his personal weapon at the enemy. It reeks of false bravado and fake machismo. (Which is rather undermined by a “signature” that looks like it should belong to Minnie Mouse.) …
Aside from the Tom Clancyesque scenario for fighting in 2025 and the cheesy business about support personnel firing for the head, the rest of the memo is rather banal stuff. People are being directed to train and ensure their personal affairs are in order. That’s the nature of military service. And, because, commanders have a relatively short time in the saddle, they have to pretend that, were it not for their inspiring leadership, it wouldn’t otherwise be happening.
The general bases his assumption on the fact that both Taiwan and the United States have elections coming up in 2024. He suggests that the leadership of both nations may be “distracted” by that fact, opening the door to the Chinese seeing an opportunity to take advantage of the situation. But we have elections on a regular basis. That doesn’t impact our ability to continue military operations as we somehow managed to do all through the war in Afghanistan.
I don’t think Joyner is going too far by suggesting that the memo “reeks of false bravado and fake machismo.” It certainly does sound a bit over the top. He also goes on to note that the memo lacked a Controlled Unclassified Information marking or some other appropriate level of classification for a document discussing warfighting policies and scenarios. This suggests that he intended it to be read by the public, presumably to generate a reaction. He probably didn’t anticipate that reaction including a significant amount of ridicule, however.
Of course, General Minihan will have the last laugh if his prediction turns out to be accurate. And if the Chinese attempt to cross the strait by 2025, we could find ourselves in either a hot war or at least a proxy war with Beijing with virtually none of our allies taking our side. And as we’ve discussed in the past, that could wind up being a war that we are simply underequipped to sustain for a significant period of time.
Aim for the center of mass....as you cut the head off of the snake.
Hopefully we’ll have a president who will stand up to China. I’m not optimistic at this time…
Dick Morris always talked about Hillary. Now it’s Trump. Raise eyebrows=books to be sold.
We have a four star General who doesn't know the difference between a clip and a magazine.
General Buck Turgison..
Brigadier General March 2, 2015
Major General July 3, 2018
Lieutenant General September 27, 2019
General October 5, 2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Minihan
The Peter Principle is strong in this one.
“My gut tells me will fight in 2025.” Fine. My gut tells me he is correct, since skilled diplomacy with the four hundred year old Vatican Diplomatic Corp might not work with China. Then again, diplomacy might 90% work with China.
Self interest will work with China. If they invade Taiwan successfully we blockade the 60% of their oil that moves through the Straits of Malacca and sanction them to the max, after which they will starve to death. China would be better off if they lose to Taiwan, after which we might feel sorry for them.
This guy is nuts.
Is there adult supervision anywhere?
In September 2022, Minihan said at a military conference that the Air Force was responsible for the biggest “pile of our nation’s enemy dead” among the branches of the American military and that “[w]hen you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger.”[4]
Stupid neocons - getting us into a two-front war for the USA
Will Milley tip off the Chinese if we do go to war? He assured them when Trump was in office.
So, we're analyzing handwriting now, are we?
Maybe someone ought to examine the general's tea leaves, too!
Regards,
Yeah they had transport guy for the Air Force the size that we’re gonna be fighting China in two years. I would rather he put his energy into lobbying Congress for more assets to get the job done. I read some background on this guy he seems like he’s a little off. From a link in the article:
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/air-force-general-mike-minihan-mobility/
We’ll see if his career comes to an abrupt end by next Friday.
Corrected line:
Yeah the head transport guy for the Air Force the decides that we’re gonna be fighting China in two years.
Going to see if the coffee is done brewing and turn off the auto correct.
Air Force using a sidearm. Hahahahahhaha.
That’s the 4-star genius that is a “leader” in the Chair Force.
What a POG REMF douche bag.
Don’t worry general, you won’t have to pay the blood tax.
I think it would be much sooner than that. The US under Biden has made China into a hostile nation And with all the weapons and money that we’ve been shoveling into Ukraine we’re the depleting our own resources but that won’t last forever there will be a window of time where America is at it’s weakest it’s then, I think, that China is will strike.
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