Posted on 01/27/2023 1:27:45 PM PST by Drew68
Donald Trump spent the final months of 2022 reeling from electoral setbacks and media disasters. Many of his high-profile endorsements in the midterm elections flopped. His attacks on popular GOP governors in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Georgia did little damage to their reputations. His 2024 campaign launch was a snooze. His infamous and inexcusable dinner at Mar-a-Lago with high-profile anti-Semites put him on the political fringe. By the end of last year, Trump appeared to be fading from the national conversation. His chances of winning the Republican nomination seemed to dim.
Now those chances are brightening. Trump continues to dominate in polls of Republicans. He's drawn even with President Biden in head-to-head matchups. He lobbied successfully for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) to become speaker of the House of Representatives. His loyalists on the House Judiciary, Oversight, and Weaponization of the Federal Government committees will be sure to advance his interests. He's plotting his return to Facebook, Instagram, and possibly Twitter, and his connection with the Republican base remains strong.
Most important of all, Trump's rivals in both the Democratic and Republican parties are repeating the mistakes they made in the run-up to the 2016 election. The Democrats assume that there is no way for Trump to become president, while Republicans believe he will fade from the scene. Their failure to learn from history has made it possible not only for Trump to win the GOP nomination for the third straight time, but to pull another inside straight in the Electoral College and return to the White House. For decades, Trump has said that the political class is corrupt, insular, and incompetent, and that Republican leaders lack guts. Washington is doing its best to prove him right.
Trump's recovery began on January 9, when news broke that classified documents had been found months earlier at a D.C. office President Biden used from 2017 to 2019. Biden, who had called Trump irresponsible and worse when the FBI recovered classified material from Mar-a-Lago last summer, was exposed as a hypocrite. Attorney General Merrick Garland came under intense pressure to appoint a special counsel for Biden, since he already had appointed one to investigate Trump for mishandling classified information and for subverting the last presidential election.
Garland relented on January 12 and tapped U.S. Attorney Robert Hur to lead the inquiry. On January 20, the FBI searched Biden's Wilmington, Del., residence (though not his home in Rehoboth Beach) and unearthed more secret papers. A few days later, former vice president Mike Pence disclosed that classified documents had been found at his house, too.
This chaotic and ridiculous situation is a boon for Trump. Politically, there is no way Garland can indict the sole declared candidate for the presidency in 2024 while exonerating Biden, who's expected to announce his own reelection campaign soon. If Garland were to do so, Trump would portray himself, reasonably, as the victim of a double standard. Biden's boneheaded handling of the documents also reinforces one of Trump's core beliefs: Everyone in politics behaves corruptly, but he alone does so without pretense.
Trump still must worry about separate inquiries, in D.C. and Atlanta, into his conduct after losing the 2020 election. The fight with the National Archives over his papers is a sideshow. If anything, it's Biden who ought to be concerned. The president's changing statements on the subject, and the drip-drip-drip of stories about the material in his possession, raise additional doubts about his honesty and competence.
House Republicans plan to scrutinize the Biden family's influence-peddling business. They are desperate to find a connection between Hunter Biden's laptop from hell and the government intelligence in Joe Biden's garage. Democrats with long memories remember how Hillary Clinton's mishandling of classified information dogged her in 2016. They don't want to go through that mess again.
They may not have a choice. Whether it's the document drama or the looming presidential campaign, history seems to be following a path it traveled once before. Not only has Trump frozen the GOP field, with potential challengers not expected to announce their candidacies for months, if ever. Trump also benefits from the same dynamics that helped him in 2016: His opponents think he will just disappear, a multi-candidate primary gives him an edge, and no Republican wants to attack him directly.
Recently, a few high-profile Republicans have predicted that Trump won't be the GOP nominee. These prognosticators share certain traits: None of them thought Trump would win in 2016, they said Republicans would win big in 2022 (yes, I did too), and they no longer hold elected office precisely because of the changes Trump made to their party. Trump inspires a form of wishful thinking among certain groups of people, a collective illusion that, despite all evidence to the contrary, someday his behavior will change, and he will be content playing golf. Well, it won't, and he's not. The way to thwart Trump is for voters to choose someone else.
That outcome is less likely in a multi-candidate race. In 2016 the non-Trump vote divided three ways among Sens. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) and Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) and then-governor John Kasich (R., Ohio). The fracture allowed Trump to capitalize on the winner-take-all structure of GOP primaries and win significant contests, and eventually the nomination, with a plurality of votes. The same thing is happening in polls today. As Nathaniel Rakich observes at FiveThirtyEight, when pollsters offer Republicans several choices, Trump wins by a huge margin. But, in head-to-head matchups with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, Trump tends to lose.
At this writing, DeSantis presents the biggest obstacle for Trump. He sits atop the field in state-level polls of New Hampshire and South Carolina. He's a proven winner and fundraiser who knows when to pick high-profile cultural battles that endear him to conservatives and the MAGA crew. His crusade against wokeness is a way to unify the party behind a tough and competent executive who hasn't alienated suburban independents in his home state. If nominated, he'd represent a rising generation for change against an 81-year-old incumbent who has been in politics for half a century.
Naturally, other Republicans have begun to attack DeSantis. That's to be expected. No one is entitled to a party's nomination, politics ain't beanbag, and running for president ought to be, and is, an arduous task. Potential GOP candidates are probing for weaknesses in DeSantis's stance on abortion, his hardball tactics with big business, his national appeal, and his personal demeanor. Notice, though, whom these Republicans are not criticizing. His initials are DJT.
As happened seven years ago, Republicans are avoiding Trump either because they believe he will pack up and go home or because they are afraid of incurring his wrath and the animosity of his most devoted supporters. They are falling back into formation as a circular firing squad that hurts everybody but the former president.
The presidential campaign is just beginning. No one knows what lies ahead. The Trump rebound may soon pass and won't come again. There's a sleeper candidate or two out there who will make this race interesting.
For now, though, Democrats and Republicans are gambling that they can behave in 2024 just like they did in 2016, but produce a different result.
You willing to bet?
Trump has no path to the Presidency.
DeSantis easily flips AZ and GA, two states that are desperate to elect a Republican, just not a "Trumpy" one.
DeSantis can flip VA as well by following Youngkin's "pro-parental rights" policies (policies that DeSantis has already embraced to great effect in Florida).
Youngkin is polling very well in VA right now, particularly among independents.
AZ + GA + VA = 272 EVs and the keys to the White House.
the only way I can think that has worked is to adapt the same tactics successfully. Using facebook metadata was successfully made evil once the trump campaign mimicked a 10x more sophisticated and more invasive obama strategy. Likewise the Republicans should encourage vote by mail among their constituents and ramp up ballot harvesting. They won’t be able to completely replicate the Dem strategy without breaking the law but it should help close the gap. Then if it works out the Dems will make it illegal and we’ll be back to the good old days.
I agree and I hope Governor DeSantis is taking notes on this.
And if DeSantis starts veering into neocon territory, his supporters need to give him an earful.
I’m a fanboy of winning. If DeSantis had 3 consecutive major losses and had no perceptible plan or strategy other than to notch a fourth in the exact same way I’d similarly have no use for him.
We’ve got to get Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
A hard row to hoe given the cheating that’s never been addressed.
I’m hoping Kari Lake will continue to fight the Maricopa election cheaters and get them jailed.
Michigan and Pennsylvania just crowned democrats so....
Georgia and Wisconsin?
The Senate has a ton of democrats up for election. Thirteen democrats and four Republicans up, and one each from both parties retiring.
Please Trump, move aside. The Dems will cheat again to prevent you from winning.
Then again, they will cheat against DeSantis too.
Maybe Repubs should run globalist Jeb Bush. He terrifies nobody.
Kari Lake was up in the polls by 5 or 6 points.
Donald Trump was up in the polls on his election day.
But the Dems steal out a victory.
There is an old expression "heads will roll". Until heads start to roll nothing will change. Judicial or extrajudicial, heads have got to roll before anything will change.
I don’t see a correlation there. Trump’s rallies in 2020 were huge and Biden had virtually none. That just doesn’t matter like it did in years past.
“If DeSantis had 3 consecutive major losses and had no perceptible plan or strategy other than to notch a fourth in the exact same way Iโd similarly have no use for him.”
1. What are the three consectuve major losses Trump has had, and you can’t count the stolen election. If you throw that in we know that you are dishonest.
2. Trump is very often putting forth new strategies in addition to his tried and true ones. Are you offended by MAGA, which he still promotes?
3. I noticed DeSantis’s endorsement of Harmeet Dhillon, probably in opposition to Trump, carried zero weight. Is that a major loss for DeSantis?
I am not against DeSantis, just perplexed that he has somehow achieved untouchable status with some people. He won, barely, his first election of governor only because Trump picked him up.
“If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man.” โ Mark Twain
That’s spot on.
We have to get out the vote. And we have to live with mail in voting. We told Republicans...go to the polling place....Maybe some stayed home but might have voted with a mail in.
it’s wishful thinking desantis is running for president after he released a statement last week instructing people not to donate money to any organization that claims he’s running for president in 2024...
Trump wasn't leading in a single poll on Election Day. The only national polls Trump ever led in during the final 6 months of the campaign were two Rasmussen polls in October and by November 2nd, he was behind in even those.
He wasn't leading in a single battleground state except Ohio.
2020 Presidential Election Polls (270ToWin)
Kari Lake torpedoed her campaign in the final week with a tone-deaf appearance with Steve Bannon and her disparagement of McCain voters. This was stupid. She had Trump's MAGA base in her back pocket. It were the independents and McCain voters that she needed to seal the deal with and she lost them to Hobbs by being too "Trumpy."
2022 polling was a disaster in that it failed to take into account a tide of Gen-Z'ers who had never voted before and came out for the Democrats on school loans and abortion.
As I've told you before, DeSantis has warned people not to donate to "DeSantis for President" fundraisers because these are scams.
When DeSantis officially announces sometime after Florida's legislative session wraps up in May (and after Florida's legislature passes a law, that DeSantis will sign, to clear DeSantis to run for president without resigning his governorship) there will be legitimate fundraising machines in place.
Right now there aren't any and DeSantis was prudent to warn people not to donate to scammers.
it’s wishful thinking until you provide evidence to prove what you’re claiming...
I didn't realize Lake had alienated the McCain voters. Dumb.
In your opinion, who can win the presidency in 2024? The Dems will probably put up Newsom. I think Gramps Biden will be goneโstroked out or forced out.
๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ถ๐ท๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ซ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ด๐ด๐ฆ๐ด ๐๐ณ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ด ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฅ, ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ค๐ข๐ฏโ๐ต ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ต๐ฐ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ. ๐๐ง ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ช๐ด๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต.
Biden is in the oval office and trump isn’t and there is no sign that will change before the next election. Democrats control the Senate and almost control the House and there is no sign that that will change before the next election. Outside the conservatives people either don’t believe or don’t care about the cheating. The history books and the narrative reflect a Biden/Dem win and there is no big sign that will change anytime in the foreseeable future. Outside of an abstract feeling of moral righteousness among conservatives, Dems for all practical intents and purposes won the 2020 election in every way that matters and did very well in 2018 and 2022.
๐๐ณ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ช๐ด ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐บ ๐ฐ๐ง๐ต๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ต๐ต๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ต๐ฉ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ธ ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐จ๐ช๐ฆ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ณ๐ถ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ด. ๐๐ณ๐ฆ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ฐ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐บ ๐๐๐๐, ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฆ๐ด?
The Trump 2024 strategy is essentially the same as 2020 and 2016. Rallies, tweet feuds, ideology etc. Not that individually any of that is necessarily bad but I don’t see anything new. When it comes to things that might have an effect trump often has counterproductive ideas like urging all his supporters to vote only on election day while Dem voters get to vote for weeks on end.
๐ ๐ข๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ข๐จ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ด๐ต ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ต๐ช๐ด, ๐ซ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฆ๐น๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ด ๐ด๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ข๐ค๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ต๐ฐ๐ถ๐ค๐ฉ๐ข๐ฃ๐ญ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ต๐ข๐ต๐ถ๐ด ๐ธ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ ๐ด๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฆ. ๐๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ฏ, ๐ฃ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ, ๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ง๐ช๐ณ๐ด๐ต ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐จ๐ฐ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ค๐ข๐ถ๐ด๐ฆ ๐๐ณ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ช๐ค๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฎ ๐ถ๐ฑ.
They’re running a political party not a Secret Santa group. All that matters is pushing the conservative cause. The second someone becomes too much of a liability he oughta step aside. Doesn’t matter if he’s a great guy who helped people out before. He can get his gratitude at the Republican country club retreat or a plumb postPresidential speaker circuit.
You sound very indecisive. I’d be curious to know where you finally end up.
Um, he's not running for president right now, is he? Therefore, anyone raising money for his presidential campaign is, by simple deduction, a scammer.
That's what DeSantis is trying to warn people against.
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