Trump wasn't leading in a single poll on Election Day. The only national polls Trump ever led in during the final 6 months of the campaign were two Rasmussen polls in October and by November 2nd, he was behind in even those.
He wasn't leading in a single battleground state except Ohio.
2020 Presidential Election Polls (270ToWin)
Kari Lake torpedoed her campaign in the final week with a tone-deaf appearance with Steve Bannon and her disparagement of McCain voters. This was stupid. She had Trump's MAGA base in her back pocket. It were the independents and McCain voters that she needed to seal the deal with and she lost them to Hobbs by being too "Trumpy."
2022 polling was a disaster in that it failed to take into account a tide of Gen-Z'ers who had never voted before and came out for the Democrats on school loans and abortion.
I didn't realize Lake had alienated the McCain voters. Dumb.
In your opinion, who can win the presidency in 2024? The Dems will probably put up Newsom. I think Gramps Biden will be gone—stroked out or forced out.