Posted on 01/27/2023 6:29:20 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
I wouldn’t give that putz a previously sucked-on lollipop let alone billions of dollars and weapons of any sort.
Well since Zelensky was elected in 2019, doubt he did much in Donbas in 2014. Putin started the civil war in Ukraine, by funding it, arming it and even sending their green men, therefore they are to blame.
Right, so your justifying a new Russian Empire, since they have a right to "decide what is an existential threat to Russia" and therefore invade neighboring independent countries.
No, I am a military analyst; I’m not justifying shit. I look at military problems from each side and distill the issue down to one uncomplicated sentence.
The Russians are not going to tolerate any meddling leading to an expansion of NATO influence on their border.
It’s really that simple.
I look at it from the Ukrainian (and Polish, Lithuanian, etc.) point of view.
The gist of the Russian demands is that they keep the territory they are holding and that Ukraine disarms. This is not a viable basis for Ukrainian national survival. There can be no negotiations if these are the Russian demands going in. And there can be no cease fire while negotiating as the Russians will just use the time to build up and reinforce.
After the Russians have taken a breather they will likely revisit the terms of the agreement and impose worse ones, vs a relatively weaker Ukraine. There will be little to stop them from demanding, say, a change of government acceptable to them. That was after all their original war aim.
As far as the rest of Eastern Europe, they are afraid that Russia will eventually try force similar terms on them. Thats why Poland was and is arming as fast as it can.
The key to analysis here is that the locals are the most important players, and that THEY have their own interests and strategy. The Ukrainians, Poles, etc. are not pawns. The truly important questions aren’t decided in Washington, but Kiev and Warsaw.
The leaders in the news arent the most important players either. Local public opinion is critical. Zelensky can’t make concessions his people wont support. They will find someone else.
Sweden and Finland are joining NATO. Regards
Lithuania will have to take most of Belorussia too, in order to get part of Ukraine.
Peace talks will occur when he has finally moved $1 billion of Western aid into his Swiss bank account.
“Negotiations” conducted in public are normally just dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s on basic agreements arrived at prior.
Its obvious the Russians have not yet, through other channels, made Ukraine an acceptable offer.
Again, you are looking through American eyes, similar to the Vietnam debacle. The only point of view that is relevant is the Russian perception and what they deem to be an existential threat. That is the key to military analysis: think from the adversary’s view point.
Zelensky was elected in late 2019, not 2014.
As for fighting across the line of contact, sort of like what the Russians and Russian proxies were doing to Ukraine since 2014, as the bombardments, etc. were mutual.
That is for Russia to decide indeed. But as far as any other party is concerned that analysis is a Russian problem.
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” - Winston Churchill
Ukraine is going to be split in two, with Lithuania getting half.
You just won the most idiotic post of the day award. 🙄
Bingo.
I disagree that Putin sees Ukraine as an "existential threat" especially since NATO membership was not going to happen anytime soon. I believe Putin sees Ukraine as "Malo Russian", not even a country but an area that should be controlled by Moscow.
“It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”
― Zbigniew Brzezińsk
Then the Russians can try take concrete measures to assure their neighbors that Russia is no threat to them. How they are going to do that is an exercise for a “military analyst”.
The real key here are the opinions of Russia’s neighbors. Russia is a threat to them. Thats why they were desperate to join NATO.
Thus we all have an impasse. Maybe you can apply your “military analysis” chops to that.
So we should have sought negotiations with Nazi Germany?
US/Nato continues to supply the weapons.
Ukrainian military will donate the blood, to the last Ukrainian.
Ukrains power grid in shambles
Ukrain citizens suffering daily
Putin continues to hold and advance his land bridge.
“The only point of view that is relevant is the Russian perception”
That is a very strange statement. Russia’s neighbors have their own relevant points of view. Russia doesnt get to rule the world just because the Russians feel like it.
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