West risks war with Russia over escalating military aid

Irish Times ^ | 1/25/23 | Geoffrey Roberts

[JonPreston]

From day one of the war in Ukraine, the most powerful argument against unrestrained western intervention in the conflict has been the danger of catastrophic escalation into an all-out war between Nato and Russia.

So far, western governments have shied away from a truly existential confrontation with Russia. But the threat remains that continuing western military aid to Ukraine will provoke Russian countermeasures that could turn Moscow’s proxy war with Nato into a direct military conflict.

Western hawks have long argued the danger of escalation is illusory. In an op-ed for the New York Times, former British diplomat Nigel Gould-Davies claimed “Putin has no red lines” and that, far from being deterred by fear of escalation, the West should call Putin’s bluff and threaten Russia with nuclear retaliation if he overreacts to western support for Ukraine.

Gould-Davies provides no hard evidence for his insights into Putin’s mind. His argument is pure speculation, and prompts the question: what if Putin won’t back away from a major war with the West? Should Nato be taking even a small risk of igniting a larger conflict that could kill millions?

Putin’s restraint in the face of massive western military aid to Ukraine has been remarkable but his forbearance may not be boundless. If the West goes too far, he may be tempted to risk a degree of escalation himself by, for example, interdicting western supplies before they arrive in Ukraine, or by neutralising the Nato surveillance systems that provide Kyiv with intelligence that enables deadly strikes on Russian targets.

[central_va]

Maybe afer Z tools up the Ukraine and gets his forces mobilized and ready to go he should make peace with Putin. Then Russia and Ukraine could together roll across all EU.