Posted on 01/24/2023 9:07:41 PM PST by Cronos
With its population declining, China’s period of rapid growth is likely over. How it copes is critical for the world.
...The country’s economy expanded by only 3 percent in 2022. Growth is projected to remain slow in the early quarters of 2023 before rebounding strongly in the second half of the year, according to a survey of 37 economists conducted by Nikkei in December. The average GDP growth figure put forth by the group was 4.7 percent, with the vast majority of predictions falling between 4.0 and 5.9 percent.
Yet even the most optimistic recovery scenario for China does not portend a return to the soaring growth rates that the country was used to for decades. China’s GDP has grown at an average of nearly 10 percent annually since Beijing embarked on economic reforms in 1978.
...China’s years of high GDP growth meant that its economy ballooned more than tenfold between the turn of the century and 2021, from $1.2 trillion to nearly $18 trillion, according to World Bank data
...Before 2008, productivity growth averaged 2.8 percent but has slowed to just 0.7 percent a year since then.
....Xi has shifted Beijing’s policy focus away from a “growth at all costs” mantra pursued by previous post-reform leaders. Instead, he has emphasised “high-quality growth”, which features as a guiding principle in China’s current five-year plan
...Xi has adopted the Mao-era catchphrase of “common prosperity” as a guiding economic principle, turning Beijing’s focus towards addressing inequalities, from housing to healthcare and education
(Excerpt) Read more at aljazeera.com ...
LOL. If the median age is 50 then there are 650 million under the age of 50. If over half of those are 18 - 50 there are 400 million available for “work”. Another 250 million or so in the 50-65 age bracket that could work too. Like I said China is a bottomless pit of labor.
The cost of Chines labor is up 4x in the last 20 years. That’s not the hallmark of a bottomless supply.
The USA can and should be self sufficient in all things that we import now with very few exceptions. China needs to take care of China. The USA needs to take care of the USA.
I've seen it first-hand - the vast rural populations are certainly aging, but the big cities are very young. I've been out at night in Guangzhou with thousands and thousands of people walking around the streets and malls - hardly any of them over 30.
The good news is that those younger people - thanks to the Internet - have seen too much. Unlike the older generations, they do not worship Mao - nor Xi Jinping. Though Communism has left them big cultural challenges, many have a much better grasp on how a real economy works than the average American.
The 1.35 billion number is almost irrelevant. The 400 million younger urbanites in the middle class will determine China's future, not the aging peasant farmers. That subset remains a serious economic threat to the Woke West, who won't be able to remain competitive under its current moron leadership.
.......approximately 80 years ago another Oriental world power was loose in the Western Pacific and, like China today, had convinced themselves they were a World Power forever. Then they ran into a born and raised Central Texas Country boy named Chester Nimitz from Fredericksburg, Texas and that clash with Chester rapidly became their doom.
China, like it’s fellow communist Putin, will expedite a reversal of it’s “rapid growth” if it attacks Formosa.
Code for "If you had rioted when our GDP fell under +7%, as was predicted, we would have mixed your blood into the mortar for housing to healthcare and education. And billed your family for the bullet.
China still needs to import a lot of energy and food.
“A country of 1.35 Billion does not have a labor problem.”
I think they have a consumer problem. It’s difficult to surpass the US when your economic growth depends so much on selling things to US consumers. If the US gets poorer than you, its consumers will be less likely to buy from you, and your growth will be thwarted.
If they want the Chinese to consume like Americans do, they’ll have to become more like America. I don’t think they want to.
That’s pretty much how I see it, but at least one person
thinks that’s a bit off.
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