Good article about how, when Ukraine gets modern tanks, the Russians could plan a tank battle.
The unknowns are many though:
1. On the Ukrainian side, would they actually do this
2. On the Russian side
2.1. how effective would raw conscripts really be? Even in the Soledar instance it was Wagner conscripted prisoners thrown in body waves that pushed forward and that too not by much
2.2. how effective would Russian logistics be? They have been bad throughout this war and there is little to show that they have improved
2.3. Russian military factories have supplied non-electronic weapons, but sporadically and they have had breakdowns due to lack of equipment needed (supplied by Western firms).
So a lot of unknowns.
This isn’t Ukraine “going downhill” - not yet. We need to wait and see how things look by the end of March to make any statement.
One thing this war has shown - right from the outset - is that short and medium term (short = 1 month, medium = 1 to 3 months) predictions on all sides have failed.
Since Russia has had its elite tank divisions completely eliminated, they have nothing to crow about even if Russia were to be able to hurt a few dozen Ukraine tanks.
Dumb article.