Posted on 01/04/2023 8:04:08 AM PST by Red Badger
It offered no explanation, though there has been some speculation that enough revolting Republicans would shift to supporting the current GOP House leader. And former President Donald Trump today backed McCarthy for the job.
“When we all went to bed last night it seemed like there could be a long, drawn-out battle approach. Kevin McCarthy was losing votes to become speaker of the House and no end seemed to be in sight. In fact, the books had seen his odds go to +115, or an implied 46.5% chance, while Steve Scalise was cut all the way down to +160, or an implied 38.5% chance. That’s all changing rapidly,” said the odds analysis on the site.
“As of 9 AM EST this morning, McCarthy had seen his odds cut back to -120 or an implied 54.5% chance, while Scalise was given +180 odds or an implied 35.7% chance. By 10 AM EST, those odds are now -150 for McCarthy or an implied 60% chance, while Scalise sits at +200 or an implied 33.3% chance,” it added.
Spokesman Kyle Newman shared with us, “It’s not yet clear how or why the odds have suddenly dramatically shifted in Kevin McCarthy’s favor. There’s been no public statement nor any signs of the 19 hardliners, or the 1 defector, changing their mind from last night. Yet, the books are getting more confident by the hour that McCarthy is going to win the speaker of the House. Do the books know something that the public doesn’t?”
I dunno, does Nancy pelosi trade on inside information?
Do the books know something that the public doesn’t?”
Typically the case.
I think these odds are probably pretty good but it doesn’t say WHEN he will be elected speaker.
I don’t know. I feel the conservatives painted themselves into a corner right now. They have enough votes to block McCarthy but not enough to elevate someone else. If they conservative members switch back to McCarthy they should expect severe retaliation so they are extremely reluctant to do so. But what is the alternative? Keep going and hope someone like Scalise steps in?
Then we get to see in the 4th vote today.
That is unless McCarthy postpones the 4th vote which I read might happen.
I think what Tucker put out last night...the two suggestions to make the 20 people happy, is probably going to be agreed upon...after the 3rd ballot today fails.
The two items? A 1970s Church commission on the FBI/CIA today, and the complete release of the 6-Jan data.
Either of these will freak out the democratic base and likely spell the end of the FBI by spring of 2024...turning into several lesser groups and probably all based outside of DC from this point on (my humble view).
If McCarthy doesn’t act....this will go onto a 3th, 4th, and 5th ballots.
I truly think they cut their nose off to spite their face.
Amusing that the odds for Trump improved, albeit from “galactically impossible” to “aw, no f###### way!”
3rd ballot failed yesterday.
Onward to 4th ballot and more today.
Demorats playing in this game.
They have spies everywhere....................
Well, Trump just endorsed him.
And Tucker threw him a lifeline last night. Is it too much to hope that enough concessions have been extracted and he’ll be forced to (sometimes) do the right thing?
They’re still fired up about McCarthy losing on the Bannon show this morning. Bannon himself was just laughing non stop while John Fredricks ranted against MTG’s support for McCarthy.
“MTG, embrace the suck!” he said. “You chose wrong and you’re going down!”. Da-yum.
Ralph Norman on now saying the holdout number is going above 20 now.
Guess we’ll find out later.
In fairness to them every single time a grass roots initiative rises the unpiparty hacks like McCarthy cut it off at the knees and utterly marginalize everyone who represents it. Tea Party, Contract with America, even back to Reagan himself (George HW Bush deleted his entire legacy). It happens ever ten years or so and they must expect that they are next. I am pretty certain that they are right, the uniparty hacks will continue trying to purge conservative / populists from office at every level. They kinda have nothing to lose.
“But what is the alternative? Keep going and hope someone like Scalise steps in?”
Either McCarthy gives up enough concessions that the conservatives can say “we at least got something this time”, or they can hold out until the people supporting McCarthy decide to shift to a compromise candidate who won’t get as much resistance.
Or we can have Nancy Pelosi again I guess.
Please, are you saying that they’re about to fall for the old Blue Ribbon Commission gambit?
Better to go down fighting, not only from a standpoint of honor but now just plain ol’ Eighth Grade intelligence.
Let’s tee this up and get it going at noon. My congresscritter knows what I think.
When you're talking real money, like 1.8 trillion, you don't want good government folks upsetting the applecart.
Noon EST, that is.
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