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The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
NYT ^ | 12/31/2022 | Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder

Posted on 12/31/2022 5:54:28 AM PST by semimojo

Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force.

Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points…

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
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To: kosciusko51

My experience is that folks in Penn are pretty parochial.
That’s why a native Democrat with a potato brain has the advantage over a Muslim from New Jersey.


61 posted on 12/31/2022 8:14:58 AM PST by nascarnation
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To: nascarnation

That’s a good way to put it, and you hit some of the salient points in this last race.


62 posted on 12/31/2022 8:16:46 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: semimojo

NYT poll = ignoring the massive VOTER FRAUD

It’s not rocket science...


63 posted on 12/31/2022 8:19:45 AM PST by newfreep ("There is no race problem...just a problem race")
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To: Regulator

This is just Slimes backfilling on The Narrative.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Totally... and what’s amazing is how so few get it. Better candidates? Mishandling the abortion issue? Whatever? Nope.... they are still doing the next-time-thing bearing down on that football like Charlie Brown pretending once again that the corrupt DemRat Lucy isn’t going to yank it away at the last second.


64 posted on 12/31/2022 8:20:35 AM PST by hecticskeptic (The simple step of a courageous individual is not to take part in the lie. ~ Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn)
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To: nathanbedford

Brilliant analysis! Conditioning of the Dumb Masses with help from the Marxist Media including claims the “Republicans are Extremists” and “Democracy is at stake “keeps the Left’s job simple. Branding is successful. No debate needed, case closed.


65 posted on 12/31/2022 8:23:02 AM PST by griswold3 (Truth, Beauty and Goodness )
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To: ARGLOCKGUY
"It is who counts the votes that matters."

FREE photo hosting by Host Pic.Org - Free Image Picture Photo Hosting

66 posted on 12/31/2022 8:27:19 AM PST by Paal Gulli (The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing.)
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To: semimojo; All
"The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative"
FR: Never Accept the Premise of Your Opponent’s Argument

There was at least one Trump rally where Trump, although typically optimistic imo, expressed some concern about winning the Senate.

After all, while it is possible for all new faces to appear in the House every two years, it takes three election cycles (six years) for patriots to theoretically put all new faces in the Senate.

And while winning a simple Senate majority would have been an ego-booster for patriots, the constitutionally mandated 2/3 supermajority restraints on important Senate votes means that Trump's doubts concerning patriots winning significant control of Senate were justified imo.

So Democrats losing control of "power of purse" House, Pelosi losing her throne as Speaker, along with 80, possibly 90-something percent of endorsed MAGA candidates being elected, were Trump's basic expectations for Trump's red tsunami of supporters.

Also, we never saw lawsuits concerning Arizona alleged ballot box cheating in front of J6 for 2020 elections like we've already seen with Kari Lake.

And patriots need to start thinking about Lake's legal battles in the context of Section 2 of the 14th Amendment, that section a penalty for states where ballot box fraud has occurred.

So the idea of a Trump washout is probably because frustrated patriots were subconsciously expecting Trump to win “2022 presidential election” (ahem) which of course didn't happen, many patriots instead letting themselves get discouraged with another post-election media wave of anti-Trump propaganda.

67 posted on 12/31/2022 8:32:15 AM PST by Amendment10
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To: semimojo

I am of the opinion without fraud the electorate looks like Florida...


68 posted on 12/31/2022 8:54:36 AM PST by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Dems: We cheated fair and square!!!)
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To: semimojo
No one with function brain should believe pollsters with a bias toward Democrats suddenly biased their polls in favor of Republicans.

What happened in 2022 was a result of voter fraud and legalized voter fraud in the form of cheat-by-mail and ballot harvesting.

What happened in Maricopa Country was a national disgrace.

I don't trust anyone that wouldn't acknowledge all that.

69 posted on 12/31/2022 9:06:24 AM PST by Kazan
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To: semimojo

The polls were correct. The mail-in ballots were fake and incorrect


70 posted on 12/31/2022 9:43:58 AM PST by no-to-illegals (The enemy has US surrounded. May God have mercy on them.)
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To: ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton

I am of the opinion without fraud the electorate looks like Florida..

/\

Me too.

I thought I was the only conservative left on planet earth before trump.

That is when I realized we were not few, but many.

And not just many,

after the Arizona 97 mile road trump show

not just the many, the most.

The majority.


71 posted on 12/31/2022 10:06:22 AM PST by cuz1961 (USCGR Veteran )
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To: Kazan
No one with function brain should believe pollsters with a bias toward Democrats suddenly biased their polls in favor of Republicans.

I think their argument is the polls biased towards Republicans, like Trafalgar, had a lot more influence this cycle.

72 posted on 12/31/2022 10:18:08 AM PST by semimojo
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To: semimojo
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

Linking to and quoting the lying-est newspaper on the planet?

And this is why people think you are on the other side. *NOBODY* with a conservative mindset cites the New York Lying @$$ Times as a credible source on anything.

If they are saying it, the very opposite is likely to be the truth.

73 posted on 12/31/2022 10:41:18 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: OttawaFreeper
Lindsay Graham sticking his nose into the whole abortion issue with his national ban was just as divisive and contradictory as having nationwide abortion on demand being imposed.

We have long wondered about Graham being on the other side. This was the absolute wrong time to pull that stunt, and that makes some of us think he may have done it on purpose.

That said, it had not nearly the impact that the election fraud had on the election.

Election fraud is the primary problem in this nation.

74 posted on 12/31/2022 10:43:55 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: semimojo

The polls don’t take account of all the rampant dem cheating.

Plus, what’s the point of a poll when half or three-quarters of people have already voted by mail?


75 posted on 12/31/2022 10:45:17 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (If you're not part of the solution, you're just scumming up the bottom of the beake)
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To: ScottinVA
3) Corrupt elections.

Number 3 is the only one that matters. All the rest you speak of is just trivial in comparison.

76 posted on 12/31/2022 10:45:40 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Drew68
Nope. Election fraud is the *ONLY* explanation for what happened. We even have proof. 42% of the ballots in Republican heavy areas of Maricopa county were sabotaged so they wouldn't read in the machines.

Stop looking for silly reasons when you have one very clear and compelling reason why the election went to sh*t in Maricopa county.

77 posted on 12/31/2022 10:48:06 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: bigdaddy45
You are spot on. Unfortunately, most here just want to whine about fraud, which somehow can never be proven. Do you want to win elections? Pick good candidates, and highlight issues that are important to people.

I begin to think some of you are slow. Was corrupt greasy fat gobby Uncle Fester retard man a "better" candidate than an actual popular medical doctor?

How do you get a worse candidate than someone with brain damage and who looks creepy and weird?

Biden was a better candidate than Trump? Biden is a corrupt senile perv who couldn't get 20 people to show up at a rally, and yet he is a better candidate than Trump; the most successful president we've seen since Reagan?

Lake was an awesome candidate. Hobbs was another nobody loser that could not win a fair race.

Stop with the "better candidate" nonsense. Better candidates will not make them stop cheating in elections.

78 posted on 12/31/2022 10:59:49 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Dan in Wichita
He made her prove it was all done intentionally, knowing before the trial even started that he would rule in Hobbs' favor.

Yes, that was asinine. The fact that it happened at all should cause the election to be thrown out. Intentionally or because of incompetence, the result of a ruined election is exactly the same.

And yes, I believe he never intended to hold an actual trial about the election. I think he went through the motions with a ruling already decided before it began.

79 posted on 12/31/2022 11:02:10 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: kosciusko51
Oz was not a good candidate for rural Pennsylvanian voters.

Because everyone knows what rural voters want in a canidate is a fat gobby loser who has never had a real job in his entire life, who looks like a grossly fat Uncle Fester, and is in fact seriously brain damaged.

Why can't we get good candidates like that?

80 posted on 12/31/2022 11:06:01 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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