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The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
NYT ^ | 12/31/2022 | Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder

Posted on 12/31/2022 5:54:28 AM PST by semimojo

Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force.

Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points…

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
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To: Michael.SF.

His real opponent with these voters was “none of the above”.


41 posted on 12/31/2022 7:40:44 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: semimojo

Ignore all polls forever.

Ask yourself: What possible benefit comes from polls?


42 posted on 12/31/2022 7:40:56 AM PST by bigbob (z)
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To: kosciusko51
I would certainly agree that the election was lost on turn out, which is, of course, the point of my initial reply.


43 posted on 12/31/2022 7:42:08 AM PST by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: All

This is complete BS. Gaslighting at its best.


44 posted on 12/31/2022 7:43:31 AM PST by bennowens
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To: nathanbedford

But your aside about Oz was completely wrong. He wasn’t a good candidate to improve voter turnout.


45 posted on 12/31/2022 7:46:32 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: semimojo

Why post NYT poll blabber on FR? Why not The People’s Daily 人民日报 ?


46 posted on 12/31/2022 7:47:41 AM PST by Hostage (Article V)
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To: bigbob
Ask yourself: What possible benefit comes from polls?

It depends. If you're in the entertainment business, like talk radio or podcasting, they give you a lot to talk about.

If you're looking to motivate people they can be used to support your narrative.

The benefit to the average voter, however, isn't so obvious.

47 posted on 12/31/2022 7:50:12 AM PST by semimojo
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To: semimojo

Polling is done to show Dimocrats how many fraudulent ballots will be necessary to put the Dim over the top.


48 posted on 12/31/2022 7:51:03 AM PST by Sir Bangaz Cracka (Poor 'lil Travon bees slamming dat white cracka'a head into dat sidewalk causin he be scared)
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To: Hostage
Why post NYT poll blabber on FR? Why not The People’s Daily 人民日报 ?

Say what?

I can't hear you over the echo.

49 posted on 12/31/2022 7:51:18 AM PST by semimojo
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To: nathanbedford
Unless and until the degree and nature of the problem is understood, we will continue to be frustrated and in our frustration we will point fingers at individuals, at candidates, and we will continue to believe that we can win next time if only we can get an honest count.

This is correct - but conservatives have nothing to sell to the Participation Trophy Generation even if their messaging can get through.

Many here believe that a majority of Americans are closet conservatives who are having their votes stolen or being tricked by media into voting against their interests. While there remains some residual desire among the voting public to be left alone, too many just want government to make all of their problems go away - and hear conservative talk of personal responsibility as a horrible threat to their freedoms rather than as a necessary component to guarantee them.

We can attempt to dismantle the Democrat information infrastructure, but even when it is gone conservatives may find few new voters capable of receiving or understanding the messaging.

50 posted on 12/31/2022 7:55:18 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: semimojo

Not to mention the cheating.


51 posted on 12/31/2022 7:56:55 AM PST by libertylover (Our biggest problem, by far, is that almost all of big media is AGENDA-DRIVEN, not-truth driven.)
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To: semimojo

The polls do not account for one person controlling 100 ballots.


52 posted on 12/31/2022 7:58:25 AM PST by UnwashedPeasant (The pandemic we suffer from is not COVID. It is Marxist Democrat Leftism.)
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To: semimojo

Its still hilarious to watch these media clowns basically try and obscure the fact the left lost control of congress. Thats the bottom line. If the gop lost all of of congress this nation, as we know it, would be gone forever. Sure polling is always suspect… rarely accurate it would seem but the GOP took the house. That is a win. Not what they do is an entirely different convo.


53 posted on 12/31/2022 7:59:01 AM PST by MrRelevant
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To: kosciusko51
It was not the candidate! Keep believing that and keep losing.


54 posted on 12/31/2022 8:02:34 AM PST by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: Regulator

This is just Slimes backfilling on The Narrative.

It’s a way to snooth over the steal in places like Arizona.

“See Little People? You were lied to, all those Mean Republicans don’t really have the support they said they did.”

That’s the line here.

/\

Exactly.

Narrative building period.

.


55 posted on 12/31/2022 8:03:27 AM PST by cuz1961 (USCGR Veteran )
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To: semimojo

When only 60% of eligible votes participate in an election, Republicans see potential voters, but Democrats see unacquired ballots.


56 posted on 12/31/2022 8:06:18 AM PST by UnwashedPeasant (The pandemic we suffer from is not COVID. It is Marxist Democrat Leftism.)
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To: Mr. Jeeves
As we move into a recession, perhaps a very deep recession or even a depression, your point will be even more apposite. It as been the eternal daunting struggle of conservatives and Republicans to admonish the electorate to eat their spinach while the Democrats invite them to a second helping of dessert.

Just as Covid had the capacity to profoundly affect American politics, so to the oncoming economic hardship might just turn system upside down. However, the tendency will be for the people to vote for Huey Long, just as you observe.


57 posted on 12/31/2022 8:10:15 AM PST by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: kosciusko51
Just another elite carpetbagger with no real association to the rural voters

I can't wait when these same voters get a Brazilian illegal immigrant appointed as senator when Fetterman croaks.

58 posted on 12/31/2022 8:12:13 AM PST by PallMal
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To: nathanbedford

I’ll grant the GOP lacks the proper infrastructure in PA. But it will never win even with the infrastructure with carpetbagger candidates that do not resonate with the base.


59 posted on 12/31/2022 8:12:42 AM PST by kosciusko51
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To: nathanbedford
Dead on about the cultural infrastructure in this country. What you didn’t mention was that in the past, we at least had religious and local social institutions that mitigated against the media (and now digital communication) blob. Those institutions have weakened as America has become less localized and more secular.

Trump was indeed an outlier/fluke and let’s not forget he was beaten handily in the National vote total way outside any margin for “fraud.” There is no conservative “silent majority” waiting to take back the country - most Americans may not be flaming wokists, but nor are they MAGA - but the Dems have the social and cultural infrastructure in this country and know how to pull the levers.

Not too many people seem to have my take on 2022: Neither Biden nor the GOP were popular enough to build a majority coalition. This is a divided country with the victory margins among the truly marginal.

60 posted on 12/31/2022 8:13:43 AM PST by Clemenza
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