The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

NYT ^ | 12/31/2022 | Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder

[kosciusko51]

His real opponent with these voters was “none of the above”.

[bigbob]

Ignore all polls forever.

Ask yourself: What possible benefit comes from polls?

[nathanbedford]

I would certainly agree that the election was lost on turn out, which is, of course, the point of my initial reply.

[bennowens]

This is complete BS. Gaslighting at its best.

[kosciusko51]

But your aside about Oz was completely wrong. He wasn’t a good candidate to improve voter turnout.

[Hostage]

Why post NYT poll blabber on FR? Why not The People’s Daily 人民日报 ?

[semimojo]

Ask yourself: What possible benefit comes from polls?

It depends. If you're in the entertainment business, like talk radio or podcasting, they give you a lot to talk about.

If you're looking to motivate people they can be used to support your narrative.

The benefit to the average voter, however, isn't so obvious.

[Sir Bangaz Cracka]

Polling is done to show Dimocrats how many fraudulent ballots will be necessary to put the Dim over the top.

[semimojo]

Why post NYT poll blabber on FR? Why not The People’s Daily 人民日报 ?

Say what?

I can't hear you over the echo.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Unless and until the degree and nature of the problem is understood, we will continue to be frustrated and in our frustration we will point fingers at individuals, at candidates, and we will continue to believe that we can win next time if only we can get an honest count.

This is correct - but conservatives have nothing to sell to the Participation Trophy Generation even if their messaging can get through.

Many here believe that a majority of Americans are closet conservatives who are having their votes stolen or being tricked by media into voting against their interests. While there remains some residual desire among the voting public to be left alone, too many just want government to make all of their problems go away - and hear conservative talk of personal responsibility as a horrible threat to their freedoms rather than as a necessary component to guarantee them.

We can attempt to dismantle the Democrat information infrastructure, but even when it is gone conservatives may find few new voters capable of receiving or understanding the messaging.

[libertylover]

Not to mention the cheating.

[UnwashedPeasant]

The polls do not account for one person controlling 100 ballots.

[MrRelevant]

Its still hilarious to watch these media clowns basically try and obscure the fact the left lost control of congress. Thats the bottom line. If the gop lost all of of congress this nation, as we know it, would be gone forever. Sure polling is always suspect… rarely accurate it would seem but the GOP took the house. That is a win. Not what they do is an entirely different convo.

[nathanbedford]

It was not the candidate! Keep believing that and keep losing.

[cuz1961]

This is just Slimes backfilling on The Narrative.

It’s a way to snooth over the steal in places like Arizona.

“See Little People? You were lied to, all those Mean Republicans don’t really have the support they said they did.”

That’s the line here.

/\

Exactly.

Narrative building period.

.

[UnwashedPeasant]

When only 60% of eligible votes participate in an election, Republicans see potential voters, but Democrats see unacquired ballots.

[nathanbedford]

As we move into a recession, perhaps a very deep recession or even a depression, your point will be even more apposite. It as been the eternal daunting struggle of conservatives and Republicans to admonish the electorate to eat their spinach while the Democrats invite them to a second helping of dessert.

Just as Covid had the capacity to profoundly affect American politics, so to the oncoming economic hardship might just turn system upside down. However, the tendency will be for the people to vote for Huey Long, just as you observe.

[PallMal]

Just another elite carpetbagger with no real association to the rural voters

I can't wait when these same voters get a Brazilian illegal immigrant appointed as senator when Fetterman croaks.

[kosciusko51]

I’ll grant the GOP lacks the proper infrastructure in PA. But it will never win even with the infrastructure with carpetbagger candidates that do not resonate with the base.

[Clemenza]

Dead on about the cultural infrastructure in this country. What you didn’t mention was that in the past, we at least had religious and local social institutions that mitigated against the media (and now digital communication) blob. Those institutions have weakened as America has become less localized and more secular.

Trump was indeed an outlier/fluke and let’s not forget he was beaten handily in the National vote total way outside any margin for “fraud.” There is no conservative “silent majority” waiting to take back the country - most Americans may not be flaming wokists, but nor are they MAGA - but the Dems have the social and cultural infrastructure in this country and know how to pull the levers.

Not too many people seem to have my take on 2022: Neither Biden nor the GOP were popular enough to build a majority coalition. This is a divided country with the victory margins among the truly marginal.