Posted on 11/21/2022 8:24:15 AM PST by marcusmaximus
“Wake me up when Ukraine controls any air space. Any.”
Air space is contested in the Ukraine. Ukrainian forces exert dominance over most of the country, but not absolute superiority. Russians are dominant along a lot of the front lines, but Ukrainians still operate there.
I addressed Freeper Fighter Pilot, in case he wants to weigh in on the air war in the Ukraine, or if any of my following statements need correction.
Ukraine operates commercial flights daily in its airspace. You can book flights to Kiev, Lviv or Odessa at any regular travel website. They fly combat sorties daily, typically around one or two dozen, sometimes three. They are operating about 80% of the combat airframes that they were before the war, net of losses and replacements. Ukrainian forces operate more air defense systems today than they did before the war, and have thousands of MANPADS distributed to their ground forces.
Russian bombers do not fly over the Ukraine, but only launch cruise missiles from over Russian territory, because of Ukrainian high altitude Air Defenses. 75%-90% of Russian cruise missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Air Defense. Russian fighter jets seldom enter Ukrainian airspace to engage Ukrainian aircraft anymore. Russian close air support aircraft (fixed and rotary wing, Su-25 and Ka-52), and their pool of trained pilots have been heavily attrited since the war started - roughly in half.
ah, the old Tacoma Dome
scene of many fine rock concerts
Surovikin, the rest of the story.
War in Ukraine, Oct 8, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos:
The new Commander is Sergey Surovikin; he used to command troops near Luchans’k.
That was actually credited to Surovikin; that was his so-called biggest achievement during the war so far. Prior to that, he served in Syria two times; he served most of 2017 in Syria, and then also again in 2019. He was accredited in 2017 with military success which allowed Russia and its allies, including Iran, to regain control of almost all of Syria.
He was and he was awarded the Hero of Russia award for that success the war in Syria. That was a totally different experience and is pretty much irrelevant to what’s going on in Ukraine. Nevertheless, he’s apparently seen as someone who is capable, and if we go back to his prior history, we actually can see there is something to it.
Let’s go all the way back to how he started his career. His career began in the Soviet Army in 1983. Then he become well not famous, but negatively famous in August of 1991. The coup attempt by the Soviet military in August in the Soviet Union failed after two or three days because most of the military didn’t follow the direction.
Sergey Surovikin was a captain at that time, and he did follow orders: he brought in 15-20 Infantry Fighting Vehicles to Moscow, to the streets of Moscow, and when he engaged in fighting with the civilians who were protesting at that time. As a result of that, three of them died something one of the IFVs got burned by the civilians as well. He was just following the orders. even it was clear that was definitely not much support and for those members of the coupe.
He was in jail for 7 months after that because the coup failed, which is interesting as the new Russian President Yeltsin freed him from the jail, and promoted him to a major. Apparently, Yeltsin needed people like that, which is also very interesting because Yeltsin got power as a result of the failure of that coup.
The Soviet Union dissolved on December 1991 and Yeltsin, who was also protesting & participating in all of the activities against the coup, gained power, full power of t Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and also participating on the other side of the coup.
Nonetheless, Yeltsin promoted Surovikin to major, then he went on to get a high level military education, was caught selling weapons, I don’t know who he was selling them illegally to, obviously.
He was sentenced to a year and in prison; he did not serve it, as it was just conditional. At the same time, he graduated with honors from the military school. He’s not dumb; he’s intelligent, but there is some level of cruelty, I guess maybe that’s probably right way to describe it, in him.
He climbing up the ladders; he was commander of 42nd Infantry Division which is on the front line in Ukraine right now. There was a a couple accidents while he was there: in one in instance, one of the people who are responsible for arms in the Division and overseas all of the arms - Surovikin had some conversation with him, and after that conversation, he killed himself, which was very strange and unusual. There were allegations that as a result of the conversation with him, it was murder, but nobody knows.
It was also very interesting because it was related to someone who’s supervising arms in the unit, he was in charge all of the weapons, and going back to Surovikin’s illegal sales of the weapons during his military education period, and the rest there is a scale I guess you already know he was just climbing up, and then eventually he served in Syria. Then he’s promoted again; he is in charge of the whole Russian forces in Ukraine.
0% of Russian-made Ukrainian S-300 missiles have been intercepted by Polish Air Defense.
Tucker “Russia has already won” Carlson has had a long list of buffoons appearing on his show. McGregor, etc. He’s doing his best to marginalize MAGA. Probably on orders from the Murdochs.
Tucker was never MAGA.
During the Reagan years, Tucker was a prep school pothead in a bow tie.
The funniest thing about these threads is when each side calls the other “trolls”.
They’re all trolls. Neither side is being honest.
The Putinistas here will claim that is all going 100% according to the plan. LOL.
Москва к весне!
Moskva k vesne!
</sarc>
A little news flash for you. Crimea has only been part of Ukraine since 1954, when the USSR transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). The Russian Empire captured it from the Ottoman Empire in 1783. Per the 2014 census, Crimea is majority Russian (65% versus 17% Ukrainian). Yes, the census was taken after the Russian take-over, and the results could be skewed but, given that it was Russian territory for so long, a Russian majority in Crimea makes sense.
Given that the majority of Russian nukes are tactical, IF Ukraine, pushed by WEF and Europweenie and ‘Murcan warhawks DID try to attack, and given that it was Russian territory for almost 200 years BEFORE ‘Москва’ transferred it to Ukraine, what do you suppose the Russians would do with at least a few of those tactical nukes? They aren’t there just to ‘look purdy’. NATO will NOT just fold. Will they reply in kind? Likely not, at first, but, there goes WW3!
The ‘actor’ in Kiev, whose claim to fame, prior to being installed in the role of pResident, was playing the piano on TV, using his ‘Johnson’. (Perhaps more talent than Presidementia XiJinBiden has ever displayed.) He has walked himself into a corner, by being played by the WEF, Euroweenies and demonrats who WILL need a war, if they even HOPE to cheat into power again in 2024!
satan casts a strong delusion on billions of people, INCLUDING Believers. We serve either God (through Jesus) or, we serve satan, whether we know it or not! We ARE in REVELATIONary times!
They have REPEATEDLY warned that nukes are on the table.
Watch for strategic withdrawal of their own troops before deployment.
Here's some additional thoughts:
Airspace is never really "controlled". As you said it is "contested".
From a pilot's perspective, the air combat arena is either High Threat or Low Threat. It is never No Threat, as MANPADs and short range SAMs could be anywhere.
Right now, Russian Air Force considers Ukraine airspace to be High Threat. The biggest "tell" is they are launching ALCMs and not dropping bombs.
As stated: "75%-90% of Russian cruise missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Air Defense. Air defense systems that can shoot down cruise missiles are fully capable of shooting down aircraft.
If either of you have specific questions, I will gladly respond.
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