“Wake me up when Ukraine controls any air space. Any.”
Air space is contested in the Ukraine. Ukrainian forces exert dominance over most of the country, but not absolute superiority. Russians are dominant along a lot of the front lines, but Ukrainians still operate there.
I addressed Freeper Fighter Pilot, in case he wants to weigh in on the air war in the Ukraine, or if any of my following statements need correction.
Ukraine operates commercial flights daily in its airspace. You can book flights to Kiev, Lviv or Odessa at any regular travel website. They fly combat sorties daily, typically around one or two dozen, sometimes three. They are operating about 80% of the combat airframes that they were before the war, net of losses and replacements. Ukrainian forces operate more air defense systems today than they did before the war, and have thousands of MANPADS distributed to their ground forces.
Russian bombers do not fly over the Ukraine, but only launch cruise missiles from over Russian territory, because of Ukrainian high altitude Air Defenses. 75%-90% of Russian cruise missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Air Defense. Russian fighter jets seldom enter Ukrainian airspace to engage Ukrainian aircraft anymore. Russian close air support aircraft (fixed and rotary wing, Su-25 and Ka-52), and their pool of trained pilots have been heavily attrited since the war started - roughly in half.
0% of Russian-made Ukrainian S-300 missiles have been intercepted by Polish Air Defense.
Here's some additional thoughts:
Airspace is never really "controlled". As you said it is "contested".
From a pilot's perspective, the air combat arena is either High Threat or Low Threat. It is never No Threat, as MANPADs and short range SAMs could be anywhere.
Right now, Russian Air Force considers Ukraine airspace to be High Threat. The biggest "tell" is they are launching ALCMs and not dropping bombs.
As stated: "75%-90% of Russian cruise missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Air Defense. Air defense systems that can shoot down cruise missiles are fully capable of shooting down aircraft.
If either of you have specific questions, I will gladly respond.