“Agent of chaos: How to read Putin’s lies, U-turns and retreats"

For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has bundled U-turns and lies together, making it hard to distinguish between evasion and fiction, and weaponizing the toxic mix to blackmail, divide and bewilder his foes.

In recent days, Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal, then gone back into it, and issued bloodcurdling threats of nuclear attack before reversing course to endorse the language of non-proliferation. This week, Putin ordered his forces to retreat from Kherson only weeks after declaring that the city would-be part of Russia “forever.”

How should the world interpret Putin’s wildly contradictory statements, actions and signals? And when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons, does Russia’s most recent rejection provide any reassurance at all?

“For Russia, inconsistency is an integral part of its foreign policy strategy, particularly under Putin,” noted Fiona Hill, a former official at the U.S. National Security Council. Hill was commenting back in 2013, a year before Russia illegally annexed Crimea after disavowing what it called the “little green men” occupying and blockading Simferopol International Airport and military bases on the Ukrainian peninsula.

In January and February, less than two weeks before intense rocket fire rained down on Kharkiv, and Kyiv’s airports were blasted by pre-dawn waves of cruise missiles, the Kremlin and its top officials waved away any suggestions that Putin intended to invade and conquer Ukraine.

The troop buildup along Ukraine’s eastern and northern borders were part of normal military exercises, they said. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova labeled as “absurd” accusations that Russia nurtured any aggressive plans. “We learn from U.S. newspapers that we will attack Ukraine,” Zakharova mocked. Her boss, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, insisted “there won’t be a war,” assuring all and sundry Russia didn’t want one.

Was this a brazen lie aimed to deceive and maintain an element of surprise or a genuine policy reversal? It’s hard to tell — and that may be the intention. Or it may just be the West’s failure to understand how Russian policy is made, say some seasoned Putin-watchers. They argue Western governments struggle to comprehend the abrupt U-turns and too often can’t differentiate between such policy reversals and purposeful deception.

“I think he makes some of this up as he goes along, some is out of desperation, but he also looks for openings in the West,” said David Kramer, who was an assistant secretary of state in the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. The result is — whatever the motivations for the changes in direction — everyone wonders what Putin going to do.

Maybe Winston Churchill’s definition of Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma” has never been truer since Britain’s wartime leader struggled to parse Joe Stalin.

Western policymakers, who must shape strategies, don’t have the luxury of just throwing up their hands and lumping together all the inconsistencies, lies and about-turns as part of a deliberate Kremlin policy. They might miss something important and revealing if they did.

“Overall, Putin thinks where there is chaos, there is opportunity, so confusion and deception is all part of his ‘spy training,’” said Orysia Lutsevych, research fellow at Britain’s Chatham House.

Even so, there are different reasons for shifts and inconsistencies, she warned. “In some cases, Putin is testing the limits of the possible, as with the grain deal, and if the opposing side shows force and determination, he does a U-turn.”

But she thinks Putin’s about-turn ordering a partial mobilization of reservists in September after insisting there wouldn’t be one “was a domestic deception operation; they were secretly mobilizing for a long time, and he made it public at the moment it was expedient.”

The White House, apparently, does not want to take too many chances. According to recent reports, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held talks with senior Kremlin aides with the aim of reducing the risk that the Ukraine war could escalate into a nuclear conflict.

According to Emily Ferris, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense and security think tank, Putin’s thinly-veiled nuclear threats over the past few weeks were a way “of escalating to test the waters and see what the response would be.”

He has recently dialed back the threats, claiming that he “had never talked about using nuclear weapons,” and that a nuclear strike on Ukraine would make neither political nor military sense.

Ferris and other Putin watchers think the backtracking this time was a result of pressure from Beijing. “Given the concerns from China, Putin likely noted the limits of that rhetoric and has now moved on from it and they’ve now said quite clearly they want to avoid any kind of nuclear conflict, so it did reveal some of the influence China has to help deescalate here,” she said.

Ferris said the decision to invade Ukraine was probably made at the last minute, which would be “quite in keeping with Putin’s tendency to put off big decisions.”

And when it comes to operational matters there’s an underlying “general incompetence and inefficiency among security establishment in Russia which shouldn’t be understated,” she said. “Putin sometimes is kept out of the loop of the details,” forcing him to intervene subsequently, she added.

Andrei Illarionov, a former senior policy adviser to Putin and now an opponent, thinks there is less logic than meets the eye when it comes to sudden policy changes. He said: “It looks like he has become quite nervous because if he’s not losing the war, he is definitely not winning either.”

You don’t discern anything. You walk in darkness!!

Ezekiel 12

12The word of the Lord came to me: 2Mortal, you are living in the midst of a rebellious house, who have eyes to see but do not see, who have ears to hear but do not hear; 3for they are a rebellious house. Therefore, mortal, prepare for yourself an exile’s baggage, and go into exile by day in their sight; you shall go like an exile from your place to another place in their sight. Perhaps they will understand, though they are a rebellious house. 4You shall bring out your baggage by day in their sight, as baggage for exile; and you shall go out yourself at evening in their sight, as those do who go into exile. 5Dig through the wall in their sight, and carry the baggage through it. 6In their sight you shall lift the baggage on your shoulder, and carry it out in the dark; you shall cover your face, so that you may not see the land; for I have made you a sign for the house of Israel.

7 I did just as I was commanded. I brought out my baggage by day, as baggage for exile, and in the evening I dug through the wall with my own hands; I brought it out in the dark, carrying it on my shoulder in their sight.

8 In the morning the word of the Lord came to me: 9Mortal, has not the house of Israel, the rebellious house, said to you, ‘What are you doing?’ 10Say to them, ‘Thus says the Lord God: This oracle concerns the prince in Jerusalem and all the house of Israel in it.’ 11Say, ‘I am a sign for you: as I have done, so shall it be done to them; they shall go into exile, into captivity.’ 12And the prince who is among them shall lift his baggage on his shoulder in the dark, and shall go out; he* shall dig through the wall and carry it through; he shall cover his face, so that he may not see the land with his eyes. 13I will spread my net over him, and he shall be caught in my snare; and I will bring him to Babylon, the land of the Chaldeans, yet he shall not see it; and he shall die there. 14I will scatter to every wind all who are around him, his helpers and all his troops; and I will unsheathe the sword behind them. 15And they shall know that I am the Lord, when I disperse them among the nations and scatter them through the countries. 16But I will let a few of them escape from the sword, from famine and pestilence, so that they may tell of all their abominations among the nations where they go; then they shall know that I am the Lord.

17 The word of the Lord came to me: 18Mortal, eat your bread with quaking, and drink your water with trembling and with fearfulness; 19and say to the people of the land, Thus says the Lord God concerning the inhabitants of Jerusalem in the land of Israel: They shall eat their bread with fearfulness, and drink their water in dismay, because their land shall be stripped of all it contains, on account of the violence of all those who live in it. 20The inhabited cities shall be laid waste, and the land shall become a desolation; and you shall know that I am the Lord.

21 The word of the Lord came to me: 22Mortal, what is this proverb of yours about the land of Israel, which says, ‘The days are prolonged, and every vision comes to nothing’? 23Tell them therefore, ‘Thus says the Lord God: I will put an end to this proverb, and they shall use it no more as a proverb in Israel.’ But say to them, The days are near, and the fulfilment of every vision. 24For there shall no longer be any false vision or flattering divination within the house of Israel. 25But I the Lord will speak the word that I speak, and it will be fulfilled. It will no longer be delayed; but in your days, O rebellious house, I will speak the word and fulfil it, says the Lord God.

26 The word of the Lord came to me: 27Mortal, the house of Israel is saying, ‘The vision that he sees is for many years ahead; he prophesies for distant times.’ 28Therefore say to them, Thus says the Lord God: None of my words will be delayed any longer, but the word that I speak will be fulfilled, says the Lord God.

“You don’t discern anything. You walk in darkness!!”

I believe you are sincere. However, I have never accepted your point of view nor judgments pronounced against myself or others. **Simply put, we each have freedom to choose our own biases.

You are entitled to your personal freedom of thought and expression. Understand, others may differ from your subjective truth.

The only truth to trust is objective truth which takes work on each of our parts to find. Personal wisdom is gained by each of us validating the truth of our personal opinion. Ponder truthfully “why” you embrace your prior personal conclusions.

This is actually the true value of this Free Republic forum.
Not to name-call or label other freepers. This actual re-evaluation process is important for each of us by providing the opportunity to evaluate evidence to find truth of our viewpoint.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.