Posted on 11/03/2022 9:23:48 AM PDT by Republicans 2016 2020
Twelve days of early voting in the books, and I think it’s safe to say now after years f watching these numbers/trends: The Dems are in trouble in Nevada.
The reason is simple: Mail is way down in Clark County from 2020, and the numbers are just not big enough to boost the Clark firewall after the GOP wins in-person early voting every day.
Large (relatively speaking) in-person turnouts on Wednesday in both urban counties, which helped the GOP hold its own amid a still-lagging mail turnout. Clark was a combined plus 1,000 ballots for the Dems, who lost a couple of hundred ballots in Washoe. Not great, Bob!
It's far from over, but consider:
The Dems now have a 1.5 percent lead statewide, which is half of what their reg lead is in the state. It’s about 7,000 ballots out of 476,000 reported. (It’s actually slightly lower than that because I don’t have updated numbers for Douglas and Carson, two of the Big Five rurals — Lyon, Nye and Elko are the others –– that make up almost 80 percent of rural registration.)
That is a thin margin for error, and if the mail doesn’t pour in, the rurals will continue to play an outsize role. The math is inexorable, folks:
Clark Dem firewall: 24,000
Rural GOP lead: 18,400
That’s only a 5,600-ballot difference.
The Clark firewall is only 7.4 percent, more than 2 points under the Dem reg lead there. It was 47,000 at the end of early voting in 2018; it’s very unlikely the Dems get even close to that by the end of tomorrow.
(Excerpt) Read more at thenevadaindependent.com ...
The Nevada Independent is a little late to the party with this article. The Dems have been in trouble in Nevada for a while.
I would like to move Nevada back into the Republican column from now on!
Time to retake states leftists invaded!
Only dem hope is bad weather one here too. Day
Which may actually happen
How much trouble can they be in? They mailed out mail in ballots to every name in the state whether they lived there or not or it was a legitimate residence or not, whether it was to a single family domicile with 85 residents in it or not
Bad weather on Election Day for post above (stupid auto correct)
The not so secret plan is to have the 4 million illegals vote to steal elections, or maybe just use their names and addresses so the Dems can vote for them. They fully intend to keep cheating to stay in power.
If there is bad weather, won’t it rain on both Democrats and Republicans?
Yet strangely, you won’t take my open bet.
If I understand correctly these totals are only “party affiliation designation and not who they actually voted for, is that accurate?
If so, the results will likely be even worse considering a higher % of Democrats than usual will be voting for a non democrat candidate.
Democrats vote by mail more often. Weather affects them less than republican voters.
According to the article, Democrats in NV are not doing well with mail in voting. Let’s hope that trend continues.
Yes but dens will have the lead going into Election Day
R’s turn out much more on ED
I should point out I don’t think a little rain or snow will keep R’s from voting on ED given the hate for Brandon
“If there is bad weather, won’t it rain on both Democrats and Republicans?”
Please educate yourself. Republicans vote in person on election day which means bad weather affects them. Dems do not vote on election day (that how they cheat), they use mail-in ballots (harvested) and droboxes (manufactured). Dems would lose every election if they had to show up.
So no, rain does not affect Dems nearly as bad.
Yes, your previous post sounded like Fetterman had stolen your keyboard for a minute.
It’s those damn little arrows. They continually get ‘losted’
on this particular browser. (Chrome?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQHuAX5h5XA
“Yet strangely, you won’t take my open bet.”
TexasGurl,
I missed it.
What are the terms of your bet?(I’m not a doomer BTW)
I agree. Many Democrats are registered through unions or joined the party back in the days when people could reasonably think the party represented the working class. I think a small but substantial Democrats in that category will vote Republican on Tuesday and could tip in the balance in Nevada. The same is also true in PA, but I don’t think PA registers by party, so we don’t have data there.
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