Forget the Polls. Here Are the Signs of the Red Wave.

Erick Erickson ^ | 10/28/2022 | Erick Erickson

[TexasGurl24]

The evidence that a wave is growing transcends the polling. Take a moment and listen below. But let me explain it to you in writing as well.

. . .

Democrats are redirecting resources to areas that should be safe. In close races, they would not be moving money from Florida to Washington State. Florida should be a tight swing seat. Washington should be a locked-in Democrat seat. But Democrats are cutting Val Demming's money in Florida against Marco Rubio and redirecting it to incumbent Senator Patty Murray of Washington. That does not happen if there is no wave.

It is not just that one race. Democrats are pulling money out of Georgia for Stacey Abrams to send to Oregon — a state that has not had a GOP governor since the eighties. They must prop up Kathy Hochul in New York and Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers. On the Senate, Democrats and Republicans keep dumping money into Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. But Democrats also have to send money to Colorado and Washington, which they should not have to do. They are pulling money from Wisconsin’s Mandela Barnes against Ron Johnson to keep other incumbent Democrats going.

On the House side, Democrats have started building a firewall in Biden +10 seats, i.e., seats Biden won by ten points or more. To do so, they are pulling money from seats Biden won by +5 to +7 points. The Democrats are sacrificing these seats to save other seats. They have given up trying to hold the GOP to fifteen seats. They’re now trying to stop the GOP from getting a thirty-seat majority in the House.

Follow the money and the Democrats are retreating from races and trying to save Democrat incumbents who should not be threatened.

[rfreedom4u]

I believe that whatever state a party raises their money it should be required the money stay in that state.

[PrincessB]

I’ve always thought that if you can’t vote for the candidate, you shouldn’t be able to donate money to their campaign. That keeps the race is close to the people as possible.

[Twotone]

If you would like more information about what’s happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me. Please send me your name by FReepmail if you want to be on this list.

[Rockingham]

Erickson has a good point. Guided by field reports and expensive, well-done, trusted private polls, party campaign committees reallocate their spending to where it can be most effective and is most needed. The rounds of triage in the last weeks before an election are highly revealing as to how the campaign committees assess their election prospects.

[Col Frank Slade]

If that bag of rocks Murray is in trouble in WA they got big problems.

[muir_redwoods]

One feature of polling is the methodology has not been adjusted to account for the loss of landlines. Another element is supporters of politically in or respect positions are generally loathe to tell others. Right leaning respondents typically soft-pedal their positions.

[Gaffer]

I remember the runup to Ubama’s coronation. I think he was getting craploads of money from all over the world in small denomination credit card payments, etc. So small, impossible to track or even notice (not that the deep state even wanted to).

[Twotone]

Wouldn’t that be a miracle, to see that woman gone!

[jimjohn]

What I’ve noticed is that the Democrats, instead of running on their record, seem to not want to bring it up. Instead, the campaign is all about fear. Abortion, j6, etc.

[Drew68]

And how many millions did the Democrats blow on celebrity candidates Beto O’Rourke and Stacy Abrams who never had a chance?

[janetjanet998]

FL “live thread”

Registered Reps up 60,000 combined mail-in and in person early vote

going into election day 2020 Dems were led by 120,000

Dems only up 6700 in Dade county right now!

[janetjanet998]

FL live thread

Red Tsunami in Florida? (Dems lagging Mail ins, Rep strong with 1st day of EV)
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4103147/posts?page=59

[cnsmom]

Time to Hide the Steal, they need to get out the Vote.

[ChildOfThe60s]

Before everybody gets a woody over this, I think the discussion should also include whether or not a republican majority is going to do anything more than it did in 2010.

If your wife cheated on you this many times, would you believe her now if she said she was going to be good?

[Bernard]

And the dollar amounts were all odd pennies, not even dollars. A sign that the money came from a different currency.

[Bernard]

Illinois now has Barack Obama ads talking about how wonderful JB Pritzker is. Funny that the dems aren’t running any ads with Joe Biden.

[Drew68]

Before everybody gets a woody over this, I think the discussion should also include whether or not a republican majority is going to do anything more than it did in 2010.

Would you prefer the Democrats keep congress?

Not much they can do when a Democrat holds the White House except block legislation, block appointments, and cut off funding. That's better than nothing though.

[Dan in Wichita]

In my make-believe world, the headlines on Nov 9 will shout:

The GOP has won their largest House majority since the party was formed in 1856.

Doubtful we'll hear that. On the other hand, this election is the last chance we have to save this country. Americans of past generations fought off foreign adversaries to preserve our freedom. It is now our turn... although the enemies of freedom are attacking on all fronts from within.

We must win.

[dowcaet]

Elections always come down to the state of the economy. The Democrats know the country is in the dumps financially, and that’s why we’re seeing commercials all over the country by RAT incumbents and candidates pushing nothing but abortion and how democracy is being “threatened”. They can’t talk about the economic disaster their policies have caused.