Trump's yearslong crusade against Ukraine has finally come home to roost as Republicans call for abandoning Kyiv

Insider ^ | 10/20/22 | John Haltiwanget

[SmokingJoe]

Total US imports & exports represent about 10% of U.S. GDP.
Total US imports & exports with China represent about 3% of our GDP.
We'll find other sources and customers

When?
And how long will that take?
We've been complaining about the massive Chinese trade surpluses with America for DECADES, and still not been able to do anything about it? What makes you think the totally incompetent Dementia Joe regime can fix that?
How will the US economy do in the meantime?
US inflation has already sky-rocked to 40 year high 8.3% just from the Russia Ukraine war, two countries that have a small economy as compared to the huge Chinese economy.
how do you think an economic war with China will work out for the US economy?
Plus of course you talk like all parts of the economy are the same.
Prostitution in San Francisco for example, cannot be compared to the vital imports we make from China including a big chunk of our vital drugs.

China's imports & exports make up 35% of China's GDP.
US imports & exports make up 10% of the US GDP.
US imports & exports with China make up 3% of US GDP.
So they need us more than we need them.

Nope.
You left out the most important part:
The massive traded deficits that America has with China.
There are whole sectors of he US economy that cannot function without huge Chinese imports, like consumer electronics for example.

[SmokingJoe]

In reality (you remember reality, right?) Pres. Kennedy didn't even call it a “blockade”, but rather a “quarantine” and the obvious reason was, it wasn't a “blockade” on Cuba — civilian ships to & from Cuba could still come & go as they wished.

That's like Dementia Joe saying we were not in a recession after 2 straight quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth.
A blockade is a blockade whether Kennedy calls it a blockade or not.

Rather the “quarantine” was to prevent Russian navy ships from reaching Cuba.

That's a blockade.

As such, it was only an “act of war” in the same sense as Stalin's Berlin Blockade of 1948.

Nope.

So long as nobody started shooting at each other, there was no war.

Shooting is not necessarily part of a blockade.
Shooing is war.

Those Soviet missiles in Cuba were fully exposed and within range of hundreds, if not thousands, of US bombers & fighter-bombers.

American missile sites were easily reachable by Soviet ICBM’s too.

In any shooting conflict, they'd all be destroyed within a matter of minutes.

And just what will happen to America in such a nuclear shooting war?

So they had no value to Khrushchev — none, zero — except for exactly what he did with them, which was use them as bargaining chips to get US Jupiter missiles — which could reach Moscow — removed from Turkey and Italy.

They were “of no value to Khrushchev so he spent huge amounts of money and risked a nuclear war for it?
Just keep telling yourself that.
Chuckle.

By the way, all those Jupiter missiles were eventually rendered obsolete by US Polaris ballistic missile submarines, beginning with USS George Washington (SSBN-598) around 1960.

Most weapons are eventually rendered obsolete by better weapons with superior technology.
Its been going on for thousands of years.
Try using your bow and arrow against a nuclear missile and see where that gets you.
Chuckle.

[SmokingJoe]

Economically, one problem with authoritarian regimes is that underlings always tell their bosses just what the bosses want to hear, true or not.
In the case of Chinese economics, there are solid reasons for believing underlings have exaggerated their annual growth numbers, year after year, to the point where today, China's real economy is only 40% of what's claimed.

You are going to need to join your pal Zelensky on the comedy stage after the Russians kick him out of power.
Chuckle.
In reality, going by PPP, the Chinese economy has already overtaken the US economy.
The Dollar Chinese GDP overtaking the US economy will come soon enough.
Talking about fake economic figures...um..did you even pay any attention to the fake state population figures and the fake Congressional district figures given out by Dementia Joe after he seized power?
And where were you when Obama was deliberately handing out fake economic figures when he was in power?

[SmokingJoe]

Right — what will happen to Chi-Com’s world trade when they invade Taiwan?
Well, it's obvious — the leaders of the 90% of the world's economy which is non-Chi-Com will announce “no trade with China”, period, to include the seizure of ships going to & from Chinese ports, and the removal of landing & takeoff rights for aircraft to or from Chi-Comnia

Dream on!
None of that is going to happen.
China is much more powerful than you think,
Most African, South American and Asian countries would back China over Dementis Joe's American any day.
Dementia Joe couldn't even get Saudi Arabia to not cut oil production
Saudi Arabia/OPEC+ CUT oil production and backed Russia instead of maintaining oil production as it was, despite Dementia Joe visiting Saudi Arabia and begging them not to cut oil production. Dems will lose next week partly because of that.
Chuckle.

[BroJoeK]

SmokingJoe: "Got nothing to do with North Korea, who are close chums with China."

But the subject here is not North Korea, it's the question of whether, as you keep saying, the Chi-Com military is "mighty".
As evidence for "mighty", you remind us of the 1950 Chi-Com counterattack across the Yalu River, North Korea.
But the Chi-Com "human wave" tactics cost them around 1.8 million total casualties in Korea, versus total western military casualties of circa 800,000.
And the end result was a stalemate -- and all that was 70+ years ago, not much of an argument for a "mighty" Chi-Com military.

And my point in mentioning the 1979 Chi-Com war against Vietnam, plus recent military skirmishes in the Himalayas is that the Chi-Com armies have looked anything but "mighty" there.

SmokingJoe: "India will be no match against China in any war.
For one thing, the Chinese economy is far bigger than the Indian economy.
For another, the Chinese military and arms manufacturing totally smokes India's."

Maybe... maybe.
As in any authoritarian regime, Chi-Com underlings exaggerate their numbers to match their plans -- to the point where after decades of exaggerations, today some experts say the Chi-Com GDP is only 40% of what's claimed.
Now if we also consider that 35% of Chi-Com GDP is foreign trade, which can quickly be stopped by concerted embargoes, then what's left is a Chinese GDP basically the same as India's.

And it seems that China's defense spending is around three times India's, but China has potential enemies surrounding it, and India has only two -- China and Pakistan, with Pakistan seemingly far less a threat.
And, in recent years Indians have acted less intimidated by Chi-Coms than, perhaps, we've come to expect.

[BroJoeK]

BJK: "We'll find other sources and customers."

SmokingJoe: "When?
And how long will that take?
We've been complaining about the massive Chinese trade surpluses with America for DECADES, and still not been able to do anything about it?
What makes you think the totally incompetent Dementia Joe regime can fix that?
How will the US economy do in the meantime?"

Any major company which does not already have effective alternate sources to mainland China will suffer the consequences if & when a time of crisis comes.
So, that is not so much a function of our current regime as of investment decisions made in corporate headquarters.
Those which are themselves too corrupt to think ahead will be caught by "surprise" in a crisis, and will well deserve the consequences of their stupidities.

SmokingJoe: "US inflation has already sky-rocked to 40 year high 8.3% just from the Russia Ukraine war, two countries that have a small economy as compared to the huge Chinese economy.
how do you think an economic war with China will work out for the US economy?"

Our current inflation rate is strictly a function of the administration's vast overspending -- throwing too much money at not enough goods -- plus restrictions on domestic energy production.
Without those, US inflation today would be far lower.

"Economic war" with China -- whatever that term may represent -- will force Americans to develop alternate sources to mainland China, including our own domestic manufacturing.
That would be a good thing for everyone.

SmokingJoe: "Plus of course you talk like all parts of the economy are the same.
Prostitution in San Francisco for example, cannot be compared to the vital imports we make from China including a big chunk of our vital drugs."

In my opinion, there's no reason why anything truly important should be sole-sourced from mainland China.

SmokingJoe: "Nope.
You left out the most important part:
The massive traded deficits that America has with China.
There are whole sectors of he US economy that cannot function without huge Chinese imports, like consumer electronics for example."

"Consumer-electronics" = video games, you think those are "essential"?
I think alternate-sources for essential items should be a matter of law, so that if the Chi-Coms go berserker on us, then they can be berserkers in their own little sand-box, and their insanities will not ruin us.

You disagree?

[BroJoeK]

SmokingJoe: "That's like Dementia Joe saying we were not in a recession after 2 straight quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth.
A blockade is a blockade whether Kennedy calls it a blockade or not."

BJK: "Rather the “quarantine” was to prevent Russian navy ships from reaching Cuba."

SmokingJoe: "That's a blockade."

definition of "blockade": "an act or means of sealing off a place to prevent goods or people from entering or leaving:"

So Kennedy did not impose a "blockade" on Cuba, since anything could come & go, except Soviet warships.
JFK called it a "quarantine" and I'm OK with that.

SmokingJoe: "Shooting is not necessarily part of a blockade.
Shooing is war."

Then we agree -- shooting is an "act of war".
Restricting the movements of enemy military is not necessarily an "act of war", be it 1948 Berlin or 1962 Cuba.

SmokingJoe: "American missile sites were easily reachable by Soviet ICBM’s too."

Only if you assume Soviet missiles were as functional and accurate as the Soviets claimed.
Perhaps... perhaps... Khrushchev was just wise enough to realize that not every weapon always performs as advertised?

SmokingJoe: "Try using your bow and arrow against a nuclear missile and see where that gets you.
Chuckle."

[BroJoeK]

SmokingJoe: "You are going to need to join your pal Zelensky on the comedy stage after the Russians kick him out of power.
Chuckle."

Obviously, you read different news reports than I do.
The ones I see say Ukrainians are putting up a heroic fight against brutal but poorly trained & motivated Russian conscripts, who often surrender without much of a fight.
Indeed, it's said that Russia is the biggest equipment supplier to the Ukrainian army, when Russia's troops abandon their tanks & BMPs to skedaddle the battle.

SmokingJoe: "In reality, going by PPP, the Chinese economy has already overtaken the US economy.
The Dollar Chinese GDP overtaking the US economy will come soon enough.
Talking about fake economic figures...um..did you even pay any attention to the fake state population figures and the fake Congressional district figures given out by Dementia Joe after he seized power?"

Sure, I understand about PPP, but what I'm saying is that Chi-Com economic growth numbers were exaggerated every year for decades, to the point where today some experts say China's real economy is only 40% of what's been claimed -- PPP or not PPP.
Of course, I can't say if that's all true, or not, but I do think we should take the Chi-Coms' claims with a grain or two of salt.

As for US population numbers, there's no doubt in my mind that Democrats have, in effect, declared civil war against the United States and opened the floodgates of illegal immigration in order to restore their own political power base in American big cities.

And as of today, November 1, 2022, it appears Democrats are winning this civil war against America.
So I guess we'll learn next week how thoroughly corrupted they've made us...

SmokingJoe: "And where were you when Obama was deliberately handing out fake economic figures when he was in power?"

So far as I know, everything about Obama was fake, starting with his own birth certificate.
And was Obama the one who redefined "inflation" to make it look much less than it actually was?

Do you remember the Bible story about Abraham negotiating with God to save Sodom & Gomorrah?
God said, "if you can find 10 good men there, then I'll save those cities", and Abraham negotiated God all the way down to finding just one good man.
Well, that is pretty much our sad, sorry state of politics today.
Ten really good people would make a big difference.

[BroJoeK]

SmokingJoe: "Dream on!
None of that is going to happen.
China is much more powerful than you think,
Most African, South American and Asian countries would back China over Dementis Joe's American any day."

If/when Chi-Coms invade Taiwan, they will face, first & foremost Taiwanese opposition determined to keep themselves free & independent.
The fact remains, however much you wish to ignore it, that Chi-Coms must cross about 100 miles of ocean to reach Taiwan, and every ship or aircraft is vulnerable to missiles & guns designed to sink or shoot them down.

Foreign support for Taiwan will first come from all the major Asian powers, from India & Australia to the Philippines, Japan & South Korea.
It will include economic actions like "embargo", "quarantine" or "sanctions", etc. that could effectively stop Chi-Com foreign trade, even without the military actions of enforced blockade.

How much of Chi-Com military & infrastructure would be destroyed in such an invasion is anybody's guess, but my guess is, it would be significant.
And the invasion would fail, so why even attempt it?

The sane thing for Chi-Coms to do is stay within their borders, make peace with their neighbors and live a really good life.
They should be thankful that the only way their good life can end is if they go insane over Taiwan.

I guess we'll find out which they prefer...