THERE IS NO SINGLE WAR IN UKRAINE AND NATO IS IN TROUBLE

Sonar 21 ^ | 11 October 2022 | Larry Johnson

[Kazan]

Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.

Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)

Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.

At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .

However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.

The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/

Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.

Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.

What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:

The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .

But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.

https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/

Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.

I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.

Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.

When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.

[cranked]

Confirmed: Smoking crack is good and healthy.

[caww]

Whether he's in Langley Virginia or on the Moon. Zelinsky will always be in Kyiv....

Zelensky was chosen for his pliability as a stage actor puppet - What they have done is

create the ability to have 'deepfake Zelensky' saying and doing anything in the same way

Hollywood has done for years.-----everything about Zelensky is fake!

[Boogieman]

And tomorrow it will be day 231 without a Russian victory against the “fake country” of Ukraine.

And the day after it will be day 232 without a Russian victory...

The real question is: “how long will the Russian people wish to be humiliated in front of the entire world for the sake of Putin’s ambition?”

[NicoDon]

Yeah this was laughable to read. Not that Ukraine has air superiority, but Russian aerial losses were pretty vividly illustrated via video. I am sure that the same would continue to happen if Russia started them up again, not because of aerial vehicles, but because of surface to air missiles. And the shortages of missiles? Do you think the US defense industry has been idle? Or do you think this military-industrial complex war has shifted into high gear so more sales can be made?

[cranked]

ZelenskyyIdiot, the bunker and green screen master.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77ElApJg854

[cranked]

404 is real.

Ukraine continues to hemorrhage massive amounts of manpower and military equipment.

And you can take this to the bank:

It’s about to get ‘full game on’ soon enough.

The Chess pieces are just being moved into place.

The next few months - November probably when ground freezes - are going to be very interesting to the outside observer....

[Renfrew]

Haha! That is hilarious. You are aware how a green screen works? That it won’t if Zelensky is himself wearing green?

Your amateur photo shop could have done the bare minimum and had a blue screen or another color that would have worked.

[Cronos]

“Because Russia’s air force is still intact “
Russia is the invading force.

Saying that its airforce is still intact is hilarious.

Russia didn’t and doesn’t have air superiority and in fact is losing that to a ramshackle Ukrainian airforce

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

What you're talking about is a massive degradation of industrial capacity, loss of communications, and destroyed road/ra/bridge network. But that's not what is happening, and these missiles strikes are orders of magnitude less than what would be necessary to accomplish that.

Theses strikes are killing a relatively small number of civilians, and temporarily inconveniencing the rest. That's it, and there's no way that will win a war.

[Renfrew]

“The next few months - November probably when ground freezes - are going to be very interesting to the outside observer....”

So how about you put up. What do you think is going to happen in the next few months.

While Kharkiv fall? Kiev? Will Russia gain the oblasts in claims are part of Russia and at the very least take Kramatorsk before the end of the year?

Make a prediction, so that we can laugh at you in a few weeks.

[Cronos]

Yup, after 8 months of nazi Putin’s army attacking the very fact that the Ukrainians still have a airforce is a black eye to Russia

[Republican Wildcat]

Everything he said was factually accurate. Irrefutably so.

That’s what you have a problem with. Reality.

[cranked]

Yo, I just heard that BidenIdiot told ZelenskyyIdiot to stop complaining.

[Cronos]

Training on modern tanks takes time, years even. The Ukrainians are trained on 30 year old tanks.

So these 200 tanks are useful.

But still the number one supplier of tanks to the Ukrainians during this war is Russia leaving behind stuff

[cranked]

My problem is that you all continue to denying reality otherwise presented.

Now that’s irrefutable, eh?

[cranked]

Grab a seat.
Buckle up.
Grab some popcorn.

Cause all your viewing now is the commercial before the actual movie starts.

[PGR88]

believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States

Some non-RINO/deep state republicans are finally finding their voice about the mess that Biden and neocons have created in Ukraine. Assuming McCarthy becomes speaker, he and McConnell will continue to push the MIC/deep state program, but they will have difficulty.

More importantly though - energy shortages in EU particularly and massive debt generally are setting off financial bombs all throughout Western markets. This favors Russia - who has no debt, has been forcibly disconnected from Western financial systems and can sit back and watch political turmoil coming from it.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said, but I do think the idea that the globalists want this war is wrong. That idea seems to be based largely on the theory that cranking up the war machine to produce War materials makes people rich. The problem is that modern weapons are so high technology that they cannot be produced quickly. The war is likely to be over before weapons orders being placed now begin showing up in truly large quantities.

But the biggest reason I don't think the globalists want this war is climate change. This war has pushed Europe into prioritizing energy self-sufficiency over reduction of carbon emissions. It also has boosted nationalism, which is the exact sentiment that the globalists are trying to eliminate.

[cranked]

“WP: Biden urged Zelensky to stop complaining about insufficient US aid”

“WP reveals Biden’s secret message to Zelensky”
https://ria.ru/20221012/bayden-1823268138.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

[PGR88]

I guess that is why Russia was unable to assert air superiority over Ukraine, and why Russia still has to resort to long range missiles to hit Ukrainian cities.

I am sorry General, but what evidence is there that Russia does not have air-superiority?

And why is launching cruise or especially hypersonic missiles and admission one's fighters/bombers can't operate? I recall the USA launching hundreds of tomahawks in Iraq War I and II, to hit the exact same kinds of targets.

Someone please enlighten me