Posted on 09/27/2022 8:09:32 AM PDT by conservative98
For Christ sake, educate yourself. You cannot get any coherent and reliable statistics from an average of polls with different samplings, different questions, some registered voters, other likely voters, different numbers of Democrats and Republicans polled, and polling methodologies. It’s like averaging apples and unicorn to find out how many drag queens should be employed by schools. The RCP average is only for statistical illiterates. Don’t be so ignorant.
It is sad that with all the free info available on candidates today that the amount of money spent on campaigns still generally determines the results.
That will be the lead sentence in the next half dozen spam texts demanding money for the RNC and every candidate across the Country.
You can choose to bury your head in the sand and cherry-pick only the polls you like, but I like to see reality for what it is, even if I don’t like it.
I always laugh when I visit sites like Democratic Underground because they don’t even allow you to post a poll that doesn’t show a democrat winning. It’s laughable.
I want the Republicans to win every bit as much as you, but I am not going to ignore the evidence that we are struggling in some states/races.
The cheating in Philadelphia will be extreme. Same for Atlanta for the Georgia race. I don’t like the odds on either of those
I am not burying my head in the sand. I think critically. You don’t. Period. Learn some eff’n statistics instead of being brain dead.
Teratoma-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teratoma
More grist for the mill.
The Trafalgar group is the most accurate polling firm based on previous elections and never an outlier all of your other polls are outliers in the real world.
STEVE SYBESMA SAYS:
September 25, 2022 at 5:59 pm
That has proven itself true over time. Trafalgar is the best at what they do which is not creating psychologically-engineered suppression polls, but polls that most closely reflect public sentiment. Their polls are the only worthwhile ones because they fulfill the honest intent of a poll.
From: Trafalgar Poll: Republicans Gain Ground
https://www.politicspa.com/trafalgar-poll-republicans-gain-ground/112408/
Fetterman will have to go to mommy and daddy for more money.
I actually took statistic in college.
If you are simply cherry-picking the polls that say what you wish to be true you are setting yourself up to be disappointed.
Are some pollsters better? absolutely.
Are some pollsters absolute garbage? absolutely.
But poll aggregators like Real Clear politics already weed out the garbage polls like (online ones). 538 goes a step further and weights them based on various things, but I prefer to look at RCP averages of all quality polls.
But if there are 20 polls and all of them show us losing and there is one showing us winning, and you choose to ignore the 19, you are making a mistake in my opinion. And the fact is we are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind in the Goverors race in Penn. It’s doesn’t matter if you ignore a few of the worst polls. The race has been polled extensively and we are far behind. And there are just not that many people who will vote for the “D” for governor and then flip and vote “R” for Senate. So as long as we are far behind in the Governors race, Oz does have much of a chance.
And I don’t “want” to say that. It’s just reality.
his name was Robert Paulsen
the average of a bunch of bullshit push polls is still bullshit
I think it’s productive to review both the credible “individual” polls as well as aggregate polls so long as you understand that, in addition to confirming the validity of the poll, you must evaluate and analyze the two types of polls quite differently to have any confidence in the projections.
Garbage in, average out. It is basically your average-level garbage.
He’s got bitch tits like Bob from Fight club.
~~~
‘His name is Robert Paulsen’
...and Fetterman will never be as cool as Meatloaf’s small toe
I didn’t say anything about any particular poll. But your statistical ignorance is apparent.
ok, call me names and refuse to believe what I say.
But when we lose races that “you” thought we would win, don’t blame bad polling for leading you to think we might win.
There hasn’t been any polls that show Mastriano ahead, and on average he is 9 points behind.
And there hasn’t been any polls that show Oz ahead, and on average he is 4.5 points behind.
It gives me no pleasure to point this out, I WANT Oz to win! And it does no good to attack someone on your side. I am just pointing out the facts to you. Sure you can point at certain polls and question them, but you are pointing at all the polls (even ones paid for by out side).
Here’s the thing about polls.
Do you think your average Republican would even answer a poll?
Oz let Fetterman get a 2 month head start and let Fetterman define Oz. Close races can be won or lost in the early summer. Oz should never have given Fetterman that time of free reign. If he loses that may be what made the difference.
I’d agree. The vegetable tray flap didn’t help him at all! He’s got a shot though, we can do this!
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