Ian A Major Hurricane Threat To Florida, Including Tampa Area

The Weather Channel ^ | September 27, 2022 | Numerous Meteorologists Unnamed

[4Runner]

Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 3 early Tuesday while hammering western Cuba and is now headed into the Gulf of Mexico for a dangerous strike on Florida.

I​an rapidly intensified into a major hurricane at 2:30 a.m. EDT and then made landfall in western Cuba two hours later. It will emerge over the waters of the southeast Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday.

[CatHerd]

Latest track from the Hurricane Center is now closer to last evening’s Euro Model with Ian making landfall just to the south of TBA. Better than the last track for PBA, but now shows it coming ashore as a major hurricane. Very bad news for Manatee County if this track holds.

Now Cat 3, Ian is that expected to become a Cat 4 after crossing Cuba, then weaken some before striking the coast:

“Ian is expected to spend only spend a few hours over western Cuba, and little overall change in strength is likely during that time. The center should emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, where warm water and generally low vertical wind shear conditions are expected to allow for additional intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for Ian to reach category 4 strength. By 24 to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions.”

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/270858.shtml

New track:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?cone#contents

[logi_cal869]

How the Xiden admin responds to the looming natural disaster in FL may very well shape the elections itself.

Should prove very, very interesting nonetheless.

[telescope115]

Stay safe. One of my brothers-in-law is in Bradenton. I hope he gets outta there.

[Track9]

Wish Rush was here to give us his insights. Loved his hurricane rap.

[JoJo354]

Thoughts and prayers with you and yours this week. We are in north Florida so will not see anything too bad. It was heading straight for us then it seemed to change tracts. My stepdaughter lives in Seminole and they just moved a little inland. Praying for them.

[JoJo354]

Very true. Used to live in Tampa and my boss lived on Bayshore. Floods all the time just when we got a heavy rain, let alone a hurricane!

[rrrod]

I’m in the South....stay safe.

[Vision]

What are your thoughts on Orlando?

[Hatteras]

"I have been in the eye of 2 hurricanes, Alicia and Ike. Also I have been through Rita, Allison and Harvey. Get out. "

And yet you stayed through not one, but a total of FIVE fire, brimstone, locusts, pillars of salt, frogs, death of your first born God's wrath and fury hurricanes?

[ARGLOCKGUY]

Alicia I was 13, Dad’s call. Ike, to dumb to know better, Harvey, Rita, Allison were ran makers not bad winds or storm surge were I live.

[Pollard]

Ian is expected to spend only spend a few hours over western Cuba, and little overall change in strength is likely during that time. The center should emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, where warm water and generally low vertical wind shear conditions are expected to allow for additional intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for Ian to reach category 4 strength. By 24 to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/270858.shtml

[Pollard]

Lot of boats for sale soon. Handyman specials.

My dad was a lobsterman before my time but he knew a bunch of guys still doing it so after every bad storm, we’d ride down to the harbor to see what the conditions of the boats were. Sad day when they were all piled up and busted up.

Tampa’s got plenty of fishing boats and could be the same situation.

[Pollard]

15+- inches of rain and M > 110 mph winds.

[FlingWingFlyer]

When I was a kid, we had hurricanes too. It’s just that people in those days didn’t get rattled as easy as the idiots do today. We also didn’t have the huge numbers of dumbasses living in places they shouldn’t be living.

[Wilhelm Tell]

Check out the National Hurricane Center website. They will have an update at 11. Try their Warnings/Cone Interactive Map. It looks like Orlando will at least get tropical storm winds. If I were in a mobile home I would want to go somewhere safer. Have bottled water - you can store tap water somewhere rather than going to a store. Make sure you have flashlights and batteries. Keep up with the local news and whatever instructions the local authorities have.

[R_Kangel]

..... No matter what happens .... Dems are going to try hard to spin this as a DeSantis/Katrina moment .....

.

[Wilhelm Tell]

Not to be alarmist, but if the hurricane tracked more east than north, things could be even rougher for Orlando. They aren’t predicting that but anything is possible with this storm. I would really not want to be in a mobile home just in case. Do any preparations now.

[dfwgator]

I expect Gainesville to get it, too.

[38special]

Ike passed right over my neighborhood

[FMBass]

Quite fortunately, this spring, I sold a house that I owned that is just north of Tampa. Although it is not in a flood zone, a recent storm brought water to my doorstep. I fear for the folks that bought the house from me.