Posted on 09/25/2022 1:12:59 PM PDT by RomanSoldier19
The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Joel Wuthnow ̶ senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU and lead editor of “Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan” (NDU 2022) – is the 336th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”
What are the top three takeaways of your book “Crossing the Strait”?
First, we don’t think China has locked itself into an arbitrary timetable to achieve reunification (such as 2027). Any use of force would be predicated more on a judgment that the military, political, and economic conditions are favorable. Those conditions don’t currently support a war of choice for Beijing, but that could change.
Second, the People’s Liberation Army has been working systematically to improve the forces that it would need to use in a war if a decision is made in the future to attack Taiwan. The book goes into great detail about improvements to amphibious and airborne units, logistics and mobilization systems, and command-and-control.
(Excerpt) Read more at thediplomat.com ...
“How China’s Military Is Preparing for War With Taiwan”
OOOH, these types of articles get the Neocons, how do you say, ‘fired up’, and ready for war!!!
Just like russia prepared for ukraine.
“That’s purely theoretical”
LOL. Perhaps, but it does fit a pattern now for the Neocons - which is “War First, ask Questions Later”.
Ukraine 2.0
Stock market tanks.
Raytheon stocks increase.
General Dynamics stocks increase.
Etc.
Etc.
They’ve been saying this crap since I was a kid. It isn’t going to happen.
“ There are some lingering weaknesses, however. The People’s Liberation Army still lacks a viable plan to transport troops and equipment across the strait at the necessary scale. “Joint” training involving multiple services and branches that would have to work together in wartime remains sporadic. And there are continuing human capital problems. These are not insurmountable but will take time to resolve.”
I think this is the key paragraph. An invasion of this nature hasn’t been pulled off since Inchon—and the US had significant, real world experience doing that.
The Taiwan strait is more than 100 miles wide. That is a ton of open ocean to cross.
Airborne attacks will work somewhat, but you aren’t going to transport nearly enough troops to do much.
Taiwan will be enticed to move closer to China through economic means. In the end, Xi will have Taiwan come to them. They won’t need to attack the island.
Just like Ukraine, it will happen when the communists feel the time is right, when that will be, who knows, soon, or 20 years from now, but the communists want it.
Taiwan needs ATGMS missiles, big brother to the HIMARS.
From Taiwan could reach the mainland and hit port, supply dumps and assembly areas to help repel invasion attempts.
The US/EU/UK/NATO/ETC could not remotely send nor produce the quantity needed by Taiwan let alone hope to match the amount of Chinese air-surface, air-to-air, air-to-ship missiles China has off of Taiwan and in their inventories.
“Taiwan will be enticed to move closer to China through economic means. In the end, Xi will have Taiwan come to them. They won’t need to attack the island.”
That window of opportunity closed, the boat sailed. It looked possible about 20 years ago.
It could come back, but China would have to change drastically.
No, not like Russia and Ukraine. Xi has options and time. Xi will blockade Taiwan. The economy will collapse within hours. Taiwan can expect no help in running the blockade from America. Hopefully, you current and ex navy guys are well aware that WWIII will be to aircraft carriers what the American Civil War was to wooden hulled ships and WWII was to the battleship.
Wait...
I thought Xi was under “house arrest” and not in power anymore?
All the books in the worlds, all the training in the world will not help a demoralized army whose last combat experiences were with India - which they lost, with the Vietnamese - which they lost twice and with the Russians - which was pretty much a draw.
No one will come to the aid of the families who sons are killed since there is no social support system in China, leaving whole families destitute, homeless and starving.
The CCP would be destroyed over night. A shooting war with anyone risks social collapse and the doom of the CCP.
I presume that Taiwan has a gazillion anti-ship missiles of all kinds employing a complex variety of attack modes enable by the best of modern electronics. If not they deserve to lose.
And if so I would not want to be on anything that floats in or around the Taiwan Straits.
Mar
well, the TGD is at it lowest point since it was built, so that at present isn’t a target to flood the valley below
intentional lowering the dam level was always thought to be a precursor to war
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