Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Calm and cool actually.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
More northerly track again.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
I wish I could have you speak common sense to my sister in St. Pete. She won’t listen to me at all. I wish it wasn’t this way. She has projectiles all over her yard as best as I can tell, and windows aren’t covered. I am praying that this storm pass over her.
🔼⬆️
Where are you located?
Good to hear. Thx.
I’m a little worried that some in my family aren’t thinking clearly. Instead of battening down the hatches, or evacuating, they are staying put without much in the way of provisions. They didn’t board up their windows. They have lawn furniture that they didn’t bring indoors. They put a few stones on top of the furniture to hold them down, but for my part, I think it only takes winds of 40-60 mph to turn those things into projectiles.
I think my only resource from so far away is to pray. It’s the only tool I have left at my disposal. Can’t wait get to the aftermath of this storm. That will be enough to deal with.
My sister and Bro-in-law are bringing in all the yard stuff, have filled up the cars, and have pulled some cash out of the bank in preparation. And they’re in Jacksonville. But they’ve been in Florida for 3 decades, so they know the drill.
Please tell your family to take the simple precautions - they don’t hav etc go crazy, but take some precautions. Plan for Cat 3.
My family in Tampa are lifelong native-born Floridians. Maybe they know something about projectiles that I’m too stupid to figure out since I live in tornado country now and no longer in hurricane country. We don’t have the luxury of time here when a tornado is coming our way. These people get days of notice and still act uninformed.
I can only try telling them what I can. They don’t listen, they have never listened. Never. Maybe it’s my delivery method. Caring and compassion doesn’t seem to work. Sometimes I wonder if I should up the drama and do a little yelling. Maybe then they would at least hear what I have to say?
Nevertheless, I hope that they remain well during this difficult time, as I hope for your family. I am probably emotional because I was hoping to have closure with my brother’s passing from a year ago. We were planning to gather on Saturday to mourn him as a family, something that we were denied a year ago because of CoVid. Sigh.
Likely what has happened is so many people have heard dire warnings about hurricane landfall that have never come to pass that they just figure this is another one and it will be nothing as well.
And it might be the case, although it’s giving no reason to think that between the water temp, the speed of the storm, and its track.
Someday that casual attitude will come back to bite people. I hope not too many people die when that happens.
Lakeland
Is it me or is the eye a lot closer to Key West than forecast?
Max sustained winds is 115mph now.
Rethinking my heavy wrought iron bench in the front yard?….and we’re on the east coast of this thing, but the trajectory has it coming at us although much weakened.???
What image are you watching?
The center of the track is now going straight through the heart of Pinellas Co. Yikes.
Mandatory evacuation for Pinellas Co. for Zones A, B, and C.
I just looked at the 11:00 pm discussion which did mention some sheer into the picture in 36 hours from now that is probably what could weaken the system down the road.
I forget now I saw so many....one showed it closer to Key West the other about where it was forecast.
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