Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
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Hebert's Boxes
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection
near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the
cyclone. Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about
half of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft recently found peak flight-level winds of 80 kt and SFMR
winds of 72 kt. Radar data is also showing winds of up to 85 kt
around 10 thousand feet, with hurricane-force winds now in the
northeastern quadrant. These values support the initial wind speed
of 75 kt. NOAA buoy 41004 near the center recently reported a
minimum pressure of 981 mb with some wind, which supports the
advisory value.
Ian is now moving faster to the north, around 12 kt, and should
continue to accelerate to the north-northwest later today due to
a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. The new
forecast is adjusted a bit to the east, but should still lead to a
landfall in South Carolina this afternoon. Little change in
intensity is expected before Ian makes landfall, due to competing
influences of strong shear versus baroclinic forcing from the trough
over water waters. Ian should rapidly transition into an
extratropical low tonight after landfall, and dissipate by Saturday
night.
It should be emphasized that dangerous winds and life-threatening
storm surge should rapidly increase during the next few hours in
the Storm Surge and Hurricane Warning areas due to Ian moving faster
toward the coast.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the
coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane
Warning area soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in North
Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.
3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding
is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally
considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North
Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 32.4N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 34.1N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 37.5N 80.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NNNN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/301455.shtml
Thanks for explanation. Makes sense. And thanks for this thread and all you do. I hope you get back to normal before too long where you are. It looks like normal will be a long time coming in some places, though.
It looks like one house on Sanibel was built to withstand a major hurricane and looks good — only it caught fire. Sometimes you just can’t win, it seems. Hurts my heart to see the pictures of Ft. Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel, all the places hit by Ian. The house in question on Sanibel shown in photos #11 and #15:
Sounds like y’all had some great ties there! Live cams of Folly Beach, Myrtle Beach, etc. here:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8QUi7Felz6A
Surf’s up all along the coast. Prayers for those in the path.
Rough here in Myrtle Beach.
Thanks for everyone’s prayers.
Thank you
Both my HP laptop n MacBook Pro were in my van that was stolen in March
Cell phone is more difficult n staying temporarily with son in super boonies often have no service n never more than one bar
Searches frustrating
The discussion here is always informative
First hand sharing of conditions & AAR helpful
Betting your going to be sore ~~ yard cleanup is great exercise but body abuse often
Likewise. Conway. Just lost power momentarily then it came back on. Two of my hounds are hiding and the third, sleeping like a baby. Interestingly, their behavior changed last night. More restless and one of them slept with us, which he never does.
I’m at the eastern part of Conway
Stay safe!
Eyewall replacement cycle and shallow water and maybe magic, busted up the right side eyewall well before Charlotte Bay landfall.
That gap is the biggest part of what passed over Sanibel.
Dot.gov is spoon feeding us, so far. Sad music sheriff aerials, with zero location data... and scary words. Biblical, catastrophic, etc. Selling soap flakes, reaching for Fed $$, no solid info yet.
A few anecdotal snippets. Causeway island breach..SE to NW flow regime. Steel Lighthouse intact, on decimated SE point, two woodframe structures gone, one foundation remains, one MIA.
I have family about to commit Hari-Kari, radar data showing greens and light yellows at worst eyewall passage, the main (protective?) axis of the island in line with the causeway breach and sand spills, and a coupla pix with 99.9 percent of wood frames on Sanibel.. missing shingles.
Outside the lighthouse base...maybe 0.1%... “biblical.”
Typically dot-gov shoots gridded aerials, but I have gigs this weekend. Starting like 30 minutes ago, thru Colts kickoff Sunday.
Any links to those aerials, or any other comprehensive data on greater Sanibel... will ease a fair bit of friction on my end.
TIA.
Likewise. It’s really getting wild here.
Ha! You know it! Should have seen me hobbling this morning. This nurse wondered if I had developed a DVT in my left calf. A couple of Advil with breakfast, and I am ready to attack the yard salad again.
I can’t get past image #5 in that article. Maybe we still have limited bandwidth on internet.
Speaking to all, and nobody in particular, my friends in Ft. Myer came through fairly well. They’re in North Ft. Myer, and while they have a mess in the yard, a broken lanai, and a few missing shingles, they fared Ok.
My friend’s dad, who lives in the same area, had a side garage door blown open, the main garage door damaged, and his boat ended up in the neighbor’s yard. Not too bad, all things considered.
BTW, the father was at his other home in Ohio, so he missed all the excitement.
Judging by the damage, I think the wind speeds were a bit hyped, it looks like the overwhelming amount of damage was from surge, and obviously homes higher up probably fared much better.
Looking at Andrew, which was pretty much all wind damage, I just don’t see how Ian’s wind speeds approached that of Andrew.
FWIW, here is a report from a friend with a place on the by in Sanibel. They evacuated.
“At this point, I have NO good news other than our friends and us are alive. What we know:
1) The only means to reach the Island (other than via boat) has been destroyed. Initially, we thought just a section of the causeway was down. However, video shows MANY sections have been destroyed leaving access back to the Island a huge unknown. Spans of the bridge dump onto islands called Island A and Island B and there is just road and beach then it connects back to the main bridge. Best we can see, there is no more of the Island A. This likely means an entire NEW structure will have to be built! Never mind the remaining structure of the bridge. I’m not an engineer, so I do not have a clue as to how or when this can be done. I suppose it may come back to the way they used to do it - by ferry.
2) We don’t know what the actual total surge was on the Island. Our last video we saw was around noon yesterday from the city cams. The gulf side of the Island was under water to just under a Stop sign (4’?). On our side, the Bay side, we saw it 2-3’ and then cameras went down. We don’t know what surge we had at the house but suspect it likely filled our lower level and drown our car. Of course, we are only speculating. We have a concrete-tile roof and hurricane shields and windows so our hope is that they all held and we have not had any penetration from leaks or break-in windows. We won’t know anything until somebody gets to our home. If the structure survived, then our likely damage is then MOLD. No a/c and no air circulation inside the house leads to mold. It seems that we will have to rebuild the house. I don’t believe that I am exaggerating but I would be thrilled if I am.
3) Some have asked what our plan is. Great question for which we really don’t have an answer due to all of the variables. No access until when? No reason to return unless there is power. Whenever that happens, and if our house is damaged and uninhabitable, where do we stay? Everyone is in the same status so where will we find housing? So many variables and certainly nothing we have ever encountered.
4) The Governor has stated that Lee County (that’s us) will have to rebuild the electrical grid. It’s not merely rehanging downed electrical lines, the power stations and transformers, metal have been destroyed. So who knows how long that will take? The water systems have also been compromised and will need major repairs. I’m sure the roadways on Island will also be severely damaged. Bottom-line - this will be be months and years before any normal lifestyle will return to us. Very sad. Also, our golf course was totally under water so I’m pretty sure that will kill the grass and the cart-barn was under water. Guess I’ll have to find a new game to play for awhile.”
Try the autoplay button up top. Then it might work? There are ads interspersed with the photos that often just appear as black screens, too.
Heartbreaking. Prayers up.
“...I suppose it may come back to the way
they used to do it - by ferry...”
-
I can remember driving onto the ferry to Sanibel.
That was probably something like 50 years ago.
Back then, there were a lot of small ferrys all over Florida.
I wonder if there are any remaining in operation.
Thanks for sharing that, even though it’s so sad. Gov. DeSantis said the entire causeway would have to be built anew and it would take we’ve all years. Until then, I guess it will be back to ferrying across as it was before 1963.
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