Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia.

Kamil Galeev via Twitter ^ | 9/21/2022 | Kamil Galeev

[Zhang Fei]

Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia. Mobilisation is more likely to trigger political chaos

short🧵

Imagine, the government declared a total mobilisation and millions of young males are drafted into the army. What next? Now you need to:

1) test & allocate them (who goes where)

2) train & arm them

3) quarter & feed them

4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs

In order to execute 1-4 in case of the war, you need to maintain massive *excessive* capacities in the peace time. And the Soviet Union, did. One reason why Soviet army was so horribly excessive is that it maintained enormous excessive capacities just in case of mobilisation

Soviet army maintained lots of excessive training schools and centres, training grounds, rooms to quarter the soldiers, excessive arsenals and storages of well, everything. *Way* more than it would ever need in the peace time. That was for the total mobilisation

Moreover, Soviet army maintained plenty of "incomplete" military units - just in case. These were military bases with all the infrastructure & weaponry, lots of officers and NCOs and very, very few soldiers. These units could not and were not supposed to fight in the normal time

Incomplete units were maintained for one single purpose. When the USSR launches total mobilisation and drafts millions into the army, these units gonna absorb them. Excessive officers gonna get tons of soldiers under their command. And incomplete units gonna become full ones

In other words, much of the Soviet army wasn't and couldn't be functional in the peace time. These were not the functional units, but the *frames* of military units that would be filled with the human meat only in the case of total mobilisation . That was their only purpose

For many decades the USSR maintained all the infrastructure for the total mobilisation, but never launched it. That was horribly expensive. Soviet Union made every effort to maintain its overblown military, but after its fall Russian military expenditures collapsed Image

In the first half of the 1990s military establishment refused to accept the new reality and demanded to fund the army on nearly Soviet level (impossible). In reality the chronically underfunded army lost its capacities. In 1991-1996 Russia went through de facto demilitarisation

I would say that the turning point came around 1997. Consider the military industry. Around 1997 the official narrative of "conversion" (= produce civilian goods and pay your own bills) changed to the narrative of "survival" (= which military plants have actually survived?)

I think this was largely a result of the Chechen wars. Sometimes around 1996-1997 Kremlin took a decision to stop the de facto demilitarisation and try to maximise its military capacities with those minimal resources they had. So they appointed Sergeyev as a minister of defense Image

Generalising a bit, I would say that the concept of Sergeyev was:

1) build as strong Strategic Rocket Forces as we can

2) maintain a small expeditionary contingent for the foreign wars

That's it, in theory. In reality around 1997 he had money just for (1), but not for (2)

Still, the eidos of the new Russian army worked out in Sergeyev's era was:

1) Very strong "Rockets" arm (high priority)

2) Not so strong "Land army" army (low priority)

In reality we just need to be able to launch a limited foreign expedition, that's it Image

Sergeyev was too busy building (1). Plus his resources were limited. So it was only Serdyukov who actually started building (2) - a strong expeditionary corpus style land army. Modern, functional but limited in size

PS We're lucky Putin fired this guy and purged his team Image

In other words, the post-1997 eidos of the Russian army amounted to:

1) Strong Strategic Rocket forces

2) Strong expeditionary corpus, limited in size

There was no place for the Soviet style total mobilisation army in this paradigm. New paradigm excluded possibility of mobilisa

New Russian leadership de facto abandoned any plans of total mobilisation. Don't get me wrong, it wasn't about saving human lives. That was about the optimal allocation of financial resources for the most part. If you need to build (1) and (2) you need to cut other expenses

Once Russian military leadership accepted the idea it gonna survive on the very limited budget (1997), they had to accept very economic & accountant style thinking. Efficiency, optimal allocation of resources. Cut the inefficient expenses and invest into something more efficient Image

What expenses were the least efficient in their new paradigm? Well, everything associated with the obsolete Soviet paradigm. Everything necessary for the total mobilisation. Excessive infrastructure, excessive units, excessive cadres, that was all inefficient expenses to be cut

That's why Serdyukov is hated so much. Rule of thumb. If someone is universally hated within a professional corporation, that almost always means he is acting agains the corporate interests. Serdyukov was cutting the excessive infrastructure & units, firing people. Hence, hatred Image

Dismantling of the infrastructure built for the total mobilisation, firing the officers who were supposed to lead the mobilised, dismantling the "incomplete" army units meant that Russian army lost capacity to absorb the millions of new recruits. It can't do mobilisation anymore

That doesn't mean Putin won't declare mobilisation. That just means it would be really stupid for him to do so. There are no excessive schools and grounds to train of new recruits. There are no excessive longings to quarter them. There are no excessive officers to lead them

Paradoxically enough, it is much harder to conduct a proper mobilisation in the course of the foreign war. First, most of the capable officers who could've trained and led new recruits are in Ukraine. Many of them are dead already

Many cadre units which could have either served as "sponges", absorbing new recruits, or as a source of officers/NCOs for the new units are already destroyed. They could've been promoted into officers in the new levee en masse. If they were not KIA months ago

Which means Putin absolutely can launch a mobilisation. He just won't be able to build a capable army out of this recruits. There is no frame that could absorb this new cannon fodder to form the new, capable military units. Actually there is much less frame now than 7 months ago

Now add to this a logistics problem. Russia is absurdly centralised country. All the airlines, all the autoroutes, and most importantly all the railways are centred in one single hub. The city of Moscow. That is *by far* the most important logistical hub in the country Image

Let me give you an example. Consider the warehouse building statistics, 2004-2009. As you see, the lion share of new warehouses are being built in Moscow (red). For logistical reasons, almost all goods in Russia will pass through Moscow and will be store here. Same with soldiers Image

Just as trade flows necessarily pass through Moscow and goods are being stored on Moscow warehouses, human flows will be passing here as well. In case of mobilisation, Moscow will be flooded by the mobilised troops. Many of whom gonna be stuck here for long (cuz bad logistics)

In case of mobilisation, there will be:

1) tons of new, unmotivated recruits

2) aware they'll be sent to Ukraine, where they likely die or get maimed

3) stuck in Moscow, in proximity to the seat of power

That's revolutionary situation Image

That is btw exactly the scenario of 1917 revolution in Russia. In November 1916 Nicholas started suspecting his ministry for internal affairs Protopopov of disloyalty and started vetting other candidatures. He offered Protopopov's position to Krzhyzhanovsky

Krzhyzhanovsky said yeah, I could be a minister, but I have a condition. There are 460 000 reserve troops quartered in the imperial capital of St Petersburg. These are mobilised peasants, very unmotivated. They know, they'll soon be sent to the WWI trenches, where they die

I want you to:

1. Transfer some of them to the city police with an exemption from the military service

2. Relocate the rest the F*** OUTTA THE CAPITAL

That's my condition if you want to see me as a minister. Nicholas ignored it. 3 months later the Russian empire fell

It were not the "workers" or "peasants" who did the February and then the October revolution. It were first and foremost the 460 000 conscripts of the St Petersburg garrison. Who were stuck in the capital cuz logistics and found themselves close to the seat of power. The end

[SeekAndFind]

What is the background of this Kamil Galeev other than he is a young Tatar from Kazan?

[PGR88]

Promise: Putin said Kviv would be taken in 2 days. Reality: It is now about 5 hours from 210 days and KaPutin still has not taken Kviv.

Yes. More lies. I feel like a lab rat on an experimental drug.

[Zhang Fei]

[What is the background of this Kamil Galeev other than he is a young Tatar from Kazan?]

---

All I *know* about him is through his written output, which you can examine here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/user/kamilkazani

My assessment of him is that he is far smarter in terms of raw intellectual horsepower than Ed Luttwak, who’s a giant on the right in terms of influence on US foreign policy. And the guy is barely out of his diapers - a kid in his 20’s. A real talent with profound (and occasionally profane) insights that match and exceed those of people decades older.

[marktwain]

Do they even have arms for them? And if they do are they modern arms or older less effective weapons?

They will have small arms, at least. The Russians do not throw away military equipment.

Some of the militia in the Donbas were equipped with Mosin Nagant rifles which were used in WWI and WWII. They are still useful bolt action rifles; but they are considered obsolete.

[MarMema]

Putin never said that. 😂😂😂

Just like all the things Trump never said.

[MarMema]

Not one of the Ukie war cheerleaders even know about Putin’s speech in Samarkand and the HUGE support he received….nor does western MSM, apparently

They don’t bother to read both sides.

[MarMema]

At least a month. Yes they have arms.
The logistics problems will hopefully be resolved under a single Russian military command...rather than diverse groups of militia, chechens, etc.

I don’t know anything about uniform shortages.

[AmericanInTokyo]

This, here, is a damn good ping.
Makes staying on FR worth it.

[hflynn]

According to Business Insider in Mar 15, 2022 article that was Putin's stated plan.

CIA Director Bill Burns said last week that Putin's two-day plan to capture Kyiv seems to have failed.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-russian-forces-could-take-kyiv-ukraine-two-days-2022-3

[NorseViking]

Did you hear the Erdogan’s interview on PBS? They asked him how dare he to visit SCO even though Turkey is in the association with the EU and NATO. He told that Putin and Xi are important and Turkey is not a Western puppet to lick EU’s behind and the latter is teasing Turkey with membership for 52 years. All of that was blatantly censored by mistranslation.

[NorseViking]

Given that the plan was never voiced maybe Burns is right...on not.

[dfwgator]

Turkey will eventually pull a Japan, as they did after being an Ally during WWI.

[NorseViking]

He is definitely ambitious.

[Cronos]

#4 is key -- Putin sent in his elite units and his professional army for his "Special Military operation" -- and they got killed

Units are at 50% capacity and the NCO and officer levels are destroyed.

He doesn't have any training staff, few NCOs and fewer capable and experienced officers

the 300K will be undertrained (if at all) and even worse led than the current Russian army in Ukraine

Putin is killing Russia

[Cronos]

"huge support he received" you say?

Nope

PM Modi tells Vladimir Putin ‘now is not an era of war’

he was even snubbed by Kazakhstan!

On September 15, Sadyr Japarov, the president of Kyrgyzstan, and Turkish president Recep Erdogan on September 16 each kept Russian President Vladimir Putin waiting during bilateral meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This is a reversal for Putin, who in the past has done that to the late Queen Elizabeth II of Britain, former US President Donald Trump, and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

To say Putin got roughed up during the two-day meeting of the eight-nation SCO in Samarkand – founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and four Central Asian states – is an understatement. He was lectured by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his invasion of Ukraine and his pleas for help were largely ignored by Xi, who upstaged Putin with an offer to train thousands of law enforcement personnel in Central Asia over the next five years.

Xi has chosen this moment to go to Kazakhstan (as) evidence of a desire to increase China’s influence in a country which, because of its long borders and large Russian ethnic minority, has always been seen to be closer to Moscow than other central Asian states

The Central Asian stans are turning towards Beijing and away from Moscow

China is using the opportunity to take more away from Moscow

India is sitting on the fence but getting off it in favor of the West - they don't mind the oil at 40% discounts, but

[gleeaikin]

If the report on Erdogon’s comments quoted in Comment 50 is correct, it would not surprise me if Turkey did something unexpected regarding NATO. But what if he went to that meeting to confer with the Stans or even India? Several of them are not at all happy with Putin. Turkey is certainly aware of Putin’s military shortcoming. If it were not for Russia’s nukes, Turkey and the Stans might be able to hold their own against Putin. Chechnia might also be interested, and if not a participant, India could be a source of materiel support. Pakistan and India both have their own nukes, so sime kind of nuclear threat is also possible. A dirty suitcase nuke planted in or near Moskow as a blackmail threat? Especially if it were possible to plant it among a cluster of oligarch dachas.

[dfwgator]

Now mind you, Turkey’s moves may not come for a few years. They will stay in NATO until Russia is significantly weakened, whenever that is, so they will continue pretending to be our friend.

[gleeaikin]

Please note I wrote my Comment #56 before I read this Comment. In addition the flight of people now the target of Putin’s 300k military call-up will be sending potential personnel for recruitment by the coalition I have imagined. These include several countries which do not require visas obtained in Russia to allow admission. Even though Putin has ordered a stop to issuing plane tickets to fleeing military age men, the Stans have borders with Russia for land travel. It will be interesting to see just how they will control their border entry points for a potential exodus from Russia.

[gleeaikin]

Yes, I do believe that my imagined coalition might play a waiting game. Putin will likely continue to weaken his forces by stubborn continued Ukraine action. Also these countries are playing friendly with China with its Silk Road (Belt & Road) plans. However I doubt they want to be controlled by China so the coalition I imagine could indeed be formed with that issue also in mind.