Posted on 09/21/2022 2:02:59 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia. Mobilisation is more likely to trigger political chaos
short🧵
Imagine, the government declared a total mobilisation and millions of young males are drafted into the army. What next? Now you need to:
1) test & allocate them (who goes where)
2) train & arm them
3) quarter & feed them
4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs
In order to execute 1-4 in case of the war, you need to maintain massive *excessive* capacities in the peace time. And the Soviet Union, did. One reason why Soviet army was so horribly excessive is that it maintained enormous excessive capacities just in case of mobilisation
Soviet army maintained lots of excessive training schools and centres, training grounds, rooms to quarter the soldiers, excessive arsenals and storages of well, everything. *Way* more than it would ever need in the peace time. That was for the total mobilisation
Moreover, Soviet army maintained plenty of "incomplete" military units - just in case. These were military bases with all the infrastructure & weaponry, lots of officers and NCOs and very, very few soldiers. These units could not and were not supposed to fight in the normal time
Incomplete units were maintained for one single purpose. When the USSR launches total mobilisation and drafts millions into the army, these units gonna absorb them. Excessive officers gonna get tons of soldiers under their command. And incomplete units gonna become full ones
In other words, much of the Soviet army wasn't and couldn't be functional in the peace time. These were not the functional units, but the *frames* of military units that would be filled with the human meat only in the case of total mobilisation . That was their only purpose
For many decades the USSR maintained all the infrastructure for the total mobilisation, but never launched it. That was horribly expensive. Soviet Union made every effort to maintain its overblown military, but after its fall Russian military expenditures collapsed Image
In the first half of the 1990s military establishment refused to accept the new reality and demanded to fund the army on nearly Soviet level (impossible). In reality the chronically underfunded army lost its capacities. In 1991-1996 Russia went through de facto demilitarisation
I would say that the turning point came around 1997. Consider the military industry. Around 1997 the official narrative of "conversion" (= produce civilian goods and pay your own bills) changed to the narrative of "survival" (= which military plants have actually survived?)
I think this was largely a result of the Chechen wars. Sometimes around 1996-1997 Kremlin took a decision to stop the de facto demilitarisation and try to maximise its military capacities with those minimal resources they had. So they appointed Sergeyev as a minister of defense Image
Generalising a bit, I would say that the concept of Sergeyev was:
1) build as strong Strategic Rocket Forces as we can
2) maintain a small expeditionary contingent for the foreign wars
That's it, in theory. In reality around 1997 he had money just for (1), but not for (2)
Still, the eidos of the new Russian army worked out in Sergeyev's era was:
1) Very strong "Rockets" arm (high priority)
2) Not so strong "Land army" army (low priority)
In reality we just need to be able to launch a limited foreign expedition, that's it Image
Sergeyev was too busy building (1). Plus his resources were limited. So it was only Serdyukov who actually started building (2) - a strong expeditionary corpus style land army. Modern, functional but limited in size
PS We're lucky Putin fired this guy and purged his team Image
In other words, the post-1997 eidos of the Russian army amounted to:
1) Strong Strategic Rocket forces
2) Strong expeditionary corpus, limited in size
There was no place for the Soviet style total mobilisation army in this paradigm. New paradigm excluded possibility of mobilisa
New Russian leadership de facto abandoned any plans of total mobilisation. Don't get me wrong, it wasn't about saving human lives. That was about the optimal allocation of financial resources for the most part. If you need to build (1) and (2) you need to cut other expenses
Once Russian military leadership accepted the idea it gonna survive on the very limited budget (1997), they had to accept very economic & accountant style thinking. Efficiency, optimal allocation of resources. Cut the inefficient expenses and invest into something more efficient Image
What expenses were the least efficient in their new paradigm? Well, everything associated with the obsolete Soviet paradigm. Everything necessary for the total mobilisation. Excessive infrastructure, excessive units, excessive cadres, that was all inefficient expenses to be cut
That's why Serdyukov is hated so much. Rule of thumb. If someone is universally hated within a professional corporation, that almost always means he is acting agains the corporate interests. Serdyukov was cutting the excessive infrastructure & units, firing people. Hence, hatred Image
Dismantling of the infrastructure built for the total mobilisation, firing the officers who were supposed to lead the mobilised, dismantling the "incomplete" army units meant that Russian army lost capacity to absorb the millions of new recruits. It can't do mobilisation anymore
That doesn't mean Putin won't declare mobilisation. That just means it would be really stupid for him to do so. There are no excessive schools and grounds to train of new recruits. There are no excessive longings to quarter them. There are no excessive officers to lead them
Paradoxically enough, it is much harder to conduct a proper mobilisation in the course of the foreign war. First, most of the capable officers who could've trained and led new recruits are in Ukraine. Many of them are dead already
Many cadre units which could have either served as "sponges", absorbing new recruits, or as a source of officers/NCOs for the new units are already destroyed. They could've been promoted into officers in the new levee en masse. If they were not KIA months ago
Which means Putin absolutely can launch a mobilisation. He just won't be able to build a capable army out of this recruits. There is no frame that could absorb this new cannon fodder to form the new, capable military units. Actually there is much less frame now than 7 months ago
Now add to this a logistics problem. Russia is absurdly centralised country. All the airlines, all the autoroutes, and most importantly all the railways are centred in one single hub. The city of Moscow. That is *by far* the most important logistical hub in the country Image
Let me give you an example. Consider the warehouse building statistics, 2004-2009. As you see, the lion share of new warehouses are being built in Moscow (red). For logistical reasons, almost all goods in Russia will pass through Moscow and will be store here. Same with soldiers Image
Just as trade flows necessarily pass through Moscow and goods are being stored on Moscow warehouses, human flows will be passing here as well. In case of mobilisation, Moscow will be flooded by the mobilised troops. Many of whom gonna be stuck here for long (cuz bad logistics)
In case of mobilisation, there will be:
1) tons of new, unmotivated recruits
2) aware they'll be sent to Ukraine, where they likely die or get maimed
3) stuck in Moscow, in proximity to the seat of power
That's revolutionary situation Image
That is btw exactly the scenario of 1917 revolution in Russia. In November 1916 Nicholas started suspecting his ministry for internal affairs Protopopov of disloyalty and started vetting other candidatures. He offered Protopopov's position to Krzhyzhanovsky
Krzhyzhanovsky said yeah, I could be a minister, but I have a condition. There are 460 000 reserve troops quartered in the imperial capital of St Petersburg. These are mobilised peasants, very unmotivated. They know, they'll soon be sent to the WWI trenches, where they die
I want you to:
1. Transfer some of them to the city police with an exemption from the military service
2. Relocate the rest the F*** OUTTA THE CAPITAL
That's my condition if you want to see me as a minister. Nicholas ignored it. 3 months later the Russian empire fell
It were not the "workers" or "peasants" who did the February and then the October revolution. It were first and foremost the 460 000 conscripts of the St Petersburg garrison. Who were stuck in the capital cuz logistics and found themselves close to the seat of power. The end
Ukraine ping
Kamil Galeev, a young Tatar from Kazan, on the political risks to Putin’s continued tenure of a total mobilization. Background note: The current Russian imperial capital is Moscow. Until Nicholas II was killed, that capital was St. Petersburg.
I find it impossible to take seriously “this time Putin/Russia is in trouble” articles from a number of posters on FR.
I know nothing about Russian warehouses or logistics, so will file this away and check later.
yesterday I thought about the 100 times or so we have been told Putin is dying of cancer.
And yet there he was at the SCO in Samarkand two days ago, standing on stage, alone, without a podium, fielding questions from reporters for 45 minutes, answering completely extemporaneously, in complete sentences and fully-formed, logical replies. Joe Biden should be so lucky to have whatever disease Putin supposedly has.
Again, we have seen SO MANY LIES, you and others are on a very short leash.
It’s interesting. My only quibble is that neither the Soviet Union nor Russia have ever been big on “NCO’s”. At least, not in the way we would normally understand them in the West.
“4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs”
Russia has neither.
I’ve known guys who have died of cancer. They don’t feel too bad, they get up on their feet and do things, and then the next week they’re finished. So what you say does not necessarily disprove that Putin has terminal cancer - he might, or he might not.
And yet there he was at the SCO in Samarkand two days ago,
——-
Not one of the Ukie war cheerleaders even know about Putin’s speech in Samarkand and the HUGE support he received….nor does western MSM, apparently….
Yeah! Russians and Ukrainians will kill each other.
I don’t care.
Good gravy, its like you asking me I should care about Iraq or Iran in a war.
Go Team! Kill each other as fast and efficiently as you can.
They’ll keep making claims and no doubt they’ll keep saying “Stay tuned. One day we might be right about Putin having cancer.”
There are *not” millions of young males being mobilized.
Why do these journalists make these stories up?
300,000. All reservists or military specialists.
And today he was in another country. I couldn’t do as much as he does.
Some nobody’s Tweet is not news.
I’m so happy the Clintons sold all that Uranium to Russia. Just nuke Ukraine, be done with it
Well that was a fine waste of time. What orifice did you pull all of that speculation from? Here’s the release actually outlining the plan. It will help to correct most of what you just wrote.
MOSCOW, September 21. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday declared a partial mobilization plan. Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu clarified that a total of 300,000 men - about 1% of the mobilization potential - would be called up for military service.
Mobilization will concern those who have already served in the army, primarily those with combat experience and a military specialty. University students and conscripts will enjoy exemption, Shoigu said. TASS has summarized the gist of what is known at this point about the first partial mobilization in Russia’s recent history.
Why is mobilization necessary?
- Russia in Ukraine is confronted with “virtually the entire military machine of the collective West,” with the length of the engagement line exceeding a thousand kilometers, Putin said.
- The goals of the military operation, according to the president, remain unchanged - “the liberation of the entire territory of Donbass.”
- Mobilization, as Shoigu explained, is carried out to ensure proper control of the already liberated territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, as well as parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
How many reservists will be called up
- Partial mobilization will apply to 300,000 reservists, or approximately 1% of the mobilization potential: those with military service experience and a military specialty. There are almost 25 million such men in Russia, Shoigu said.
- Russia plans to mobilize about the same number of reservists as Ukraine has already drafted into the army, Shoigu said.
Who will be called up for service
In his televised address to the nation Putin said that “only citizens who are currently in reserve - above all, those who served in the armed forces and have certain military specialties - are subject to conscription under partial mobilization.”
- Mobilization will concern those with combat experience in the first place, Shoigu said on the Rossiya-24 TV channel.
- Recruitment of students is ruled out “under any circumstance,” he stressed.
- Mobilization will not apply to the conscripts to be drafted starting from October 1. There are no plans for sending conscripts to the zone of the operation in Ukraine. They will continue to serve on Russian territory.
- Military-industrial complex employees will be granted a deferment from mobilization, as follows from Putin’s decree. Other specific categories of citizens entitled to a deferment and the procedure for granting it will be determined by the government.
How will the mobilization proceed?
- Partial mobilization in accordance with the presidential decree begins on September 21. No date of its termination is set.
- The number of draftees and the terms of draft from each specific region will be determined by the Defense Ministry. Their senior officials will be responsible for the appropriate arrangements.
- Due to partial mobilization the routine crash courses for reservists will be canceled.
- Conscription will not be instant, but proceed but according to a plan. Shoigu stressed that there would be “nothing like a ‘wide-cut harvester approach’ to the issue.”
- All those mobilized will undergo additional training before being sent to the zone of the military operation.
Status of those mobilized
- The mobilized will enjoy the same status and monetary allowance as the military personnel under the contract.
- The already existing contracts will be valid until the end of the partial mobilization period. Both contract servicemen and those mobilized can be dismissed from service upon reaching the service age limit, for health reasons, or if they have been sentenced to imprisonment.
- Volunteers participating in the operation and the fighters of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics’ militia will have the status identical to that of Russian military personnel.
What the law says
- The law assumes that exemption from mobilization will be granted to citizens identified according to the rules determined by the government, temporarily unfit for service for health reasons, single fathers and fathers with many children, guardians or trustees of underage brothers and sisters, and a number of other categories. Postponement is also granted to senators and State Duma members.
- Other Russians can also be granted a reprieve in accordance with a presidential decree (this time it was established for defense industry workers).
- Mobilization also cannot apply to those who have an unexpunged or outstanding conviction for committing a serious crime.
- Those who are in reserve, but have not been called up, can be sent to work for the armed forces and other troops as civilian personnel. The Defense Ministry has not yet announced such plans.
- Citizens enrolled in the military register from the beginning of mobilization do not have the right to leave their place of residence without permission from the military commissariats. The authorities have not yet specified whether this provision will apply to those not subject to partial mobilization.
Wait a few quarters to see where the economic trends are going. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on exporting resources to buy the technology and parts it needs to function. The US and European economies are more varied and robust in going with business cycles. the Russian economy is already starting to show cracks. It takes a year or two for these problems to develop and get visibility.
There are a few talking about Russia being in trouble meaning looking at the long term picture for Russia. Between the military, politics, and economy, it is getting bad for Russia fast. This winter is going to hurt the US, Europe and much of the world. Russia is going to get hurt too. The rest of the world can take it better than Russia can. Next year, everyone will be hurting, Russia will be hurting more, have few allies, business partners slow to return calls, the same screwed up military, and a lot of really pissed off enemies.
Putin needed to win fast or risk the continuation of the Russian Federation. He did not win fast.
Reality: It is now about 5 hours from 210 days and KaPutin still has not taken Kviv.
“It’s interesting. My only quibble is that neither the Soviet Union nor Russia have ever been big on “NCO’s”. At least, not in the way we would normally understand them in the West.”
That is very true. NCOs are the backbone of a military. Moreover, in the US military delegation of authority and command is routine, such that the mission is understood throughout, and lower echelon troops have the wherewithal and flexibility to carry out and complete the mission absent superior officers.
I’ve known some, as well. One week they’ll be mowing the lawn or digging post holes and the next week...dead.
Then there was Xi of China and Modi of India telling Putin to chill, and find an acceptable end to the war with minimum loss of life or damage to infrastructure. I think it was Modi who told him this was not the time to wage such a war.
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