Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia.

Kamil Galeev via Twitter ^ | 9/21/2022 | Kamil Galeev

[SeekAndFind]

What is the background of this Kamil Galeev other than he is a young Tatar from Kazan?

[PGR88]

Promise: Putin said Kviv would be taken in 2 days. Reality: It is now about 5 hours from 210 days and KaPutin still has not taken Kviv.

Yes. More lies. I feel like a lab rat on an experimental drug.

[Zhang Fei]

[What is the background of this Kamil Galeev other than he is a young Tatar from Kazan?]

---

All I *know* about him is through his written output, which you can examine here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/user/kamilkazani

My assessment of him is that he is far smarter in terms of raw intellectual horsepower than Ed Luttwak, who’s a giant on the right in terms of influence on US foreign policy. And the guy is barely out of his diapers - a kid in his 20’s. A real talent with profound (and occasionally profane) insights that match and exceed those of people decades older.

[marktwain]

Do they even have arms for them? And if they do are they modern arms or older less effective weapons?

They will have small arms, at least. The Russians do not throw away military equipment.

Some of the militia in the Donbas were equipped with Mosin Nagant rifles which were used in WWI and WWII. They are still useful bolt action rifles; but they are considered obsolete.

[MarMema]

Putin never said that. 😂😂😂

Just like all the things Trump never said.

[MarMema]

Not one of the Ukie war cheerleaders even know about Putin’s speech in Samarkand and the HUGE support he received….nor does western MSM, apparently

They don’t bother to read both sides.

[MarMema]

At least a month. Yes they have arms.
The logistics problems will hopefully be resolved under a single Russian military command...rather than diverse groups of militia, chechens, etc.

I don’t know anything about uniform shortages.

[AmericanInTokyo]

This, here, is a damn good ping.
Makes staying on FR worth it.

[hflynn]

According to Business Insider in Mar 15, 2022 article that was Putin's stated plan.

CIA Director Bill Burns said last week that Putin's two-day plan to capture Kyiv seems to have failed.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-russian-forces-could-take-kyiv-ukraine-two-days-2022-3

[NorseViking]

Did you hear the Erdogan’s interview on PBS? They asked him how dare he to visit SCO even though Turkey is in the association with the EU and NATO. He told that Putin and Xi are important and Turkey is not a Western puppet to lick EU’s behind and the latter is teasing Turkey with membership for 52 years. All of that was blatantly censored by mistranslation.

[NorseViking]

Given that the plan was never voiced maybe Burns is right...on not.

[dfwgator]

Turkey will eventually pull a Japan, as they did after being an Ally during WWI.

[NorseViking]

He is definitely ambitious.

[Cronos]

#4 is key -- Putin sent in his elite units and his professional army for his "Special Military operation" -- and they got killed

Units are at 50% capacity and the NCO and officer levels are destroyed.

He doesn't have any training staff, few NCOs and fewer capable and experienced officers

the 300K will be undertrained (if at all) and even worse led than the current Russian army in Ukraine

Putin is killing Russia

[Cronos]

"huge support he received" you say?

Nope

PM Modi tells Vladimir Putin ‘now is not an era of war’

he was even snubbed by Kazakhstan!

On September 15, Sadyr Japarov, the president of Kyrgyzstan, and Turkish president Recep Erdogan on September 16 each kept Russian President Vladimir Putin waiting during bilateral meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This is a reversal for Putin, who in the past has done that to the late Queen Elizabeth II of Britain, former US President Donald Trump, and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

To say Putin got roughed up during the two-day meeting of the eight-nation SCO in Samarkand – founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and four Central Asian states – is an understatement. He was lectured by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his invasion of Ukraine and his pleas for help were largely ignored by Xi, who upstaged Putin with an offer to train thousands of law enforcement personnel in Central Asia over the next five years.

Xi has chosen this moment to go to Kazakhstan (as) evidence of a desire to increase China’s influence in a country which, because of its long borders and large Russian ethnic minority, has always been seen to be closer to Moscow than other central Asian states

The Central Asian stans are turning towards Beijing and away from Moscow

China is using the opportunity to take more away from Moscow

India is sitting on the fence but getting off it in favor of the West - they don't mind the oil at 40% discounts, but

[gleeaikin]

If the report on Erdogon’s comments quoted in Comment 50 is correct, it would not surprise me if Turkey did something unexpected regarding NATO. But what if he went to that meeting to confer with the Stans or even India? Several of them are not at all happy with Putin. Turkey is certainly aware of Putin’s military shortcoming. If it were not for Russia’s nukes, Turkey and the Stans might be able to hold their own against Putin. Chechnia might also be interested, and if not a participant, India could be a source of materiel support. Pakistan and India both have their own nukes, so sime kind of nuclear threat is also possible. A dirty suitcase nuke planted in or near Moskow as a blackmail threat? Especially if it were possible to plant it among a cluster of oligarch dachas.

[dfwgator]

Now mind you, Turkey’s moves may not come for a few years. They will stay in NATO until Russia is significantly weakened, whenever that is, so they will continue pretending to be our friend.

[gleeaikin]

Please note I wrote my Comment #56 before I read this Comment. In addition the flight of people now the target of Putin’s 300k military call-up will be sending potential personnel for recruitment by the coalition I have imagined. These include several countries which do not require visas obtained in Russia to allow admission. Even though Putin has ordered a stop to issuing plane tickets to fleeing military age men, the Stans have borders with Russia for land travel. It will be interesting to see just how they will control their border entry points for a potential exodus from Russia.

[gleeaikin]

Yes, I do believe that my imagined coalition might play a waiting game. Putin will likely continue to weaken his forces by stubborn continued Ukraine action. Also these countries are playing friendly with China with its Silk Road (Belt & Road) plans. However I doubt they want to be controlled by China so the coalition I imagine could indeed be formed with that issue also in mind.