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Could Russia's Sudden Ukraine Retreat Mean A Tactical Nuclear Weapons Strike Is Coming? The Situation in Ukraine Could Get Far More Dangerous.
19FortyFive.com ^ | 09/11/2022 | Michael Rubin

Posted on 09/11/2022 8:29:27 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

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1 posted on 09/11/2022 8:29:27 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
https://sonar21.com/knowing-what-we-know-knowing-what-we-dont-know-and-knowing-the-difference/

he Ukrainians and NATO know that most of the ground war is being fought by Donbas militias, but do not want to inform the public of that because it undercuts their propaganda campaign to make this “invasion” all about Russia.

We also know that Russia is much better at deception than Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine did nothing to hide its intent to launch an attack in the Kherson region and also signaled it would attack around Kharkov. Russia? Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.

There is one more salient fact–the Ukrainian offensive around Kharkov took place without any meaningful support from Ukrainian combat air or artillery. Why is that important? That means the Russian air force–both fixed wing and rotary wing–is unscathed and intact. Russian armor and artillery systems also were not destroyed. If they ain’t destroyed they can still fight and the Ukrainian troops do not have a large reserve of armor and artillery to protect them.

Ukraine and the western media blithely ignore this fact and are celebrating the limited Ukrainian advance as if it were the reincarnation of the Nazi blitzkrieg into France.

One final fact to take into account. Ukraine has incurred horrendous casualties over the last two and a half weeks of combat. Russia and the militias have far fewer losses. Russia has not tapped into its trained military reserve. Ukraine has no trained military reserve left. So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.

2 posted on 09/11/2022 8:37:19 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: SeekAndFind
Hopefully they'll aim it at the gay "bath houses".

3 posted on 09/11/2022 8:38:03 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (LORD, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Very dangerous. Putin can’t walk away he knows that.


4 posted on 09/11/2022 8:38:08 PM PDT by toddausauras (Stop ALL immigration NOW. )
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To: SeekAndFind
Putin doesn't seem like a gracious loser. If his health is also failing, I could see him utilizing some low yield tactical nukes. There is a power vacuum on the international stage called Biden. As physics has taught us, horror vacui or “nature abhors the void.”
5 posted on 09/11/2022 8:39:33 PM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis )
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To: thegagline

As many folks know there are a lot of very powerful weapons that are not technically “nuclear” but can cause quite a bit of damage.

The focus on “nuclear” weapons may be a red herring.


6 posted on 09/11/2022 8:45:08 PM PDT by cgbg (Claiming that laws and regs that limit “hate speech” stop freedom of speech is “hate speech”.)
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To: SeekAndFind

*yawn* always the threat of the loser. And it’s an empty threat that will NEVER happen.


7 posted on 09/11/2022 8:46:00 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, it is what it is at this point. Nukes are on the table and we need to have an answer, even if you don’t think Putin will use them... you need an answer else... the more likely he will use them. I think this is the sentence that sums up the current state of affairs when it comes to Putin’s nukes:

Deter him or kill him before he can use them.

Which ever route we take we better do it right the first time. Putin knows he is not fighting Ukraine, he is fighting in Ukraine...for now.


8 posted on 09/11/2022 8:46:02 PM PDT by WinstonSmith1984
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To: cgbg

The Russians might have their own version of our Daisy Cutter.


9 posted on 09/11/2022 8:48:30 PM PDT by Macho MAGA Man
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, an SS-27 or later wouldn’t be a tactical weapon.

Those are strategic weapons.

They should have used a different pic. 😜


10 posted on 09/11/2022 8:51:10 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: WinstonSmith1984

Why do ‘we’ have to do something? Many NATO members are right there up and personal - why the hell aren’t they involved?

I want OUR borders protected.

And Ukraine? They’re NOT a democracy - they’re NOT part of NATO and they’re slightly less corrupt than Russia.

The biggest plus for our involvement is DC white liberal ‘elites’ and global ‘elites’ and their whore monger, drug addicted sons - launder their money there. Not exactly a hill worth dying on.


11 posted on 09/11/2022 9:05:49 PM PDT by GOPJ (Biden's 'WAR ON THE AMERICAN PEOPLE' speech is history's Jimmah Carter's BIG RABBIT blunder..)
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To: GOPJ

GOPJ, you are on point, but sadly following the successful coup of 2020... the globalist, elites and a bunch of flat out communists inside our National Security apparatus are running the show... Like it or not, they are we until such time as we can put them back in their box. Right now “they” have the reigns and they/we have limited options. You are correct, problem is we are not in charge, the global coup is and they are running the show, very poorly by the way and to disastrous effect to date.


12 posted on 09/11/2022 9:18:10 PM PDT by WinstonSmith1984
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To: GOPJ

We are a NATO member and “right there up and personal” with over 100,000 American troops.

You want us NATO people to do what?


13 posted on 09/11/2022 9:19:53 PM PDT by ansel12 (NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.)
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To: GOPJ

Ukraine is worse

More corrupt than Russia

Putin masters his Oligarchs

Zekensky is beholden to his

Lots of hands grabbing for our cash


14 posted on 09/11/2022 9:24:36 PM PDT by wardaddy (If you are squishy about what’s going on you’re damn weak The water is still and on the wrong forums)
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To: SeekAndFind

Commentators in the English speaking world have speculated and threatened on behalf of Russian their use of nuclear weapons since the war began. Russia wants Ukraine intact to exploit it like the imperialist power they pretend they are not. They are not going to turn Ukraine into a nuclear wasteland.

15 posted on 09/11/2022 9:24:48 PM PDT by Widget Jr (🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 - Just say no to CCCP 2.0)
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To: Widget Jr

Meh.

1/2 life is a beautiful thing.


16 posted on 09/11/2022 10:03:24 PM PDT by griffin (When you have to shoot, SHOOT; don't talk. -Tuco)
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To: wardaddy

Nope. As per all international reviews, russia is far more corrupt than Ukraine.


17 posted on 09/11/2022 10:39:03 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: WinstonSmith1984
Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

I can't imagine who asked this General to pose like this!

The fingers don't correlate with the facial expression....


18 posted on 09/11/2022 10:46:30 PM PDT by caww (</>O death, when you seized my Lord, you lost your grip on me......Augustine)
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To: Widget Jr
They are not going to turn Ukraine into a nuclear wasteland.

There's a lot to consider here from a tactical perspective, politics aside.

A properly fused airburst whose yield is primarily derived from fusion is only going to have some fast fission products from the initial triggering device. Hardly the stuff of radioactive nightmares. A true tactical device - yields in the low kilotons - to take out ground forces by overpressure and shock effect isn't going to cause much, if any fallout.

The only real radiation you get will be the neutron burst from the actual fission initiator itself, whose effect is eclipsed by the heat and blast (unless it's an enhanced radiation weapon, i.e. a neutron bomb).

Granted, most "production" weapons (at least in the American arsenal) use Uranium-238 tampers for the tertiary yield, which does produce a lot of fission products, but that's on three-stage, multi-hundred kiloton or megaton weapons. Conversely, a tactical yield (ten, even five kilotons) probably doesn't even need a fusion stage and could be a pure fission device, making it relatively "dirty" by design. Again, employment is key: the commander would want to optimize for overpressure, not a ground burst, since he's not going for a buried/hardened target (like a missile silo). He's trying to destroy exposed troops/armor in the field, so an airburst and a properly calibrated shockwave is what he wants. The generation of fallout products would (theoretically) be minimal if the weapon was employed correctly.

19 posted on 09/11/2022 10:47:37 PM PDT by A Conservative Future
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To: caww

There is the face of the “Slav’’.

Square headed, cold and brutal.


20 posted on 09/11/2022 11:25:22 PM PDT by jmacusa (Liberals. Too stupid to be idiots. )
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