The difference is what Russia sells to the EU is fungible. What the EU sells to Russia is not. The Europeans eventually will find alternative sources of fossil fuels. But spare parts for padvanced echnological products are not fungible. In many cases, you either have to get them from the manufacturer or you are out of luck. That is really going to hurt Russia in the longer term.
“what Russia sells to the EU is fungible.”
Oil yes, gas, not so much. The pipeline gas to Europe can’t be physically moved to a liquification facility, to be exported via ship. There is not much slack capacity at Russia’s LNG export terminals in the Arctic or Sakhalin anyway.
The overwhelming majority of what gas Europe can no longer sell to Europe, simply can not be sold. They are currently flaring it off, but will likely have to cap wells over time, as maintenance costs become unsustainable without the supporting revenue.
Last year, Natural gas accounted for about 1/4 of Russia’s GDP las year (that includes their domestic consumption, as well as the 10-15% of exports that went to non-European customers, mainly Japan and China). 85% of gas exports went to Europe (including Turkey) last year. The Turkstream pipeline continues to operate, but the rest are shutting down, or already off.
Even if the war ends tomorrow, European customers are not going to return to the same level of dependency on Russian supplies as before, as a matter of national security policy. Maybe 10% for price competition, but not 40% or 50% like before the war.
The business that was built over a half century will be significantly scrapped this year.
>> The Europeans eventually will find alternative sources of fossil fuels<<
Can you explain what they are? Greta and Al Gore want to know.
key is longer term
winter is coming