“what Russia sells to the EU is fungible.”
Oil yes, gas, not so much. The pipeline gas to Europe can’t be physically moved to a liquification facility, to be exported via ship. There is not much slack capacity at Russia’s LNG export terminals in the Arctic or Sakhalin anyway.
The overwhelming majority of what gas Europe can no longer sell to Europe, simply can not be sold. They are currently flaring it off, but will likely have to cap wells over time, as maintenance costs become unsustainable without the supporting revenue.
Last year, Natural gas accounted for about 1/4 of Russia’s GDP las year (that includes their domestic consumption, as well as the 10-15% of exports that went to non-European customers, mainly Japan and China). 85% of gas exports went to Europe (including Turkey) last year. The Turkstream pipeline continues to operate, but the rest are shutting down, or already off.
Even if the war ends tomorrow, European customers are not going to return to the same level of dependency on Russian supplies as before, as a matter of national security policy. Maybe 10% for price competition, but not 40% or 50% like before the war.
The business that was built over a half century will be significantly scrapped this year.
” European customers are not going to return to the same level of dependency on Russian supplies “
Yeah, pretty stupid to become dependent on someone who you plan to start chest bumping and developing a hostile nation on their border.
The problem wasn’t dependency on Russia. The problem was EU/NATO hostility towards their vendor. Go to the main grocery store in a small town, insult the manager every chance you get, kick his dog, send people around to intimidate him. See how long you get to shop at his store.