“The poll that nailed the final result on the money showed that head to head, Begich wins in a walk, by about 10 points.”
Nonsense, what you’re saying makes no sense. Nick Begich the third-place loser should have dropped out. He is the one that cost the election. Palin beat him by 5 points. If that idiot would have dropped out when he was losing and had no chance of winning the seat would be Repub.
Hint: Polls don’t win elections, votes do. It is stupid the RINO Republicans that destroy everything. His pride was too big to concede in time to save the seat.
Palin got more votes than Begich in both the primary and special election on the first choice.
So Palin is the stronger Republican candidate.
The Murkowski Crowd system is what hurt Sarah in the Special Election and may hurt her in the general.
Nick Begich is the weaker Republican candidate is what I see in these results.
No. The ranked choice showed his Democrat challenger earning the #2 position.
Palin will lose this race in November against Peltola. Palin is the one who needs to drop out.
Given the voting system, this analysis, with all due respect, does not make any sense.
If all of Palin's voters had selected Begich as their second choice, Begich would have won. So it appears a substantial number of both Begich and Palin voters selected the Democrat as their second choice.
That’s simply not how RCV works.
The poll that nailed the race showed that if Palin made it to the second place, she would lose 51-49. That’s about exactly what happened.
It also showed that if Begich had made it to second place, he would have won by 10 points.
Why? Because the people who voted for Begich first wanted a Republican to represent them, but if they couldn’t have Begich, they didn’t want Palin.
If Palin had finished third, a much larger portion of her votes would have went to Begich.
Palin is the weak link, because there are a larger portion of Begich first choice voters who simply can’t stand Palin, versus the other way around.