OH WOE IS ME!
Let me clutch my pearls!
Just make sure to re-elect Donald Trump!
The end of the World's Reserve Currency is nigh! OH NOs!
Posted on 08/28/2022 5:42:18 AM PDT by FarCenter
This month, as the dollar surged to levels last seen nearly 20 years ago, analysts invoked the old Tina (there is no alternative) argument to predict more gains ahead for the mighty greenback.
What happened two decades ago suggests the dollar is closer to peaking than rallying further. Even as US stocks fell in the dotcom bust, the dollar continued rising, before entering a decline that started in 2002 and lasted six years. A similar turning point may be near. And this time, the US currency’s decline could last even longer.
Adjusted for inflation or not, the value of the dollar against other major currencies is now 20 percent above its long-term trend, and above the peak reached in 2001. Since the 1970s, the typical upswing in a dollar cycle has lasted about seven years; the current upswing is in its 11th year. Moreover, fundamental imbalances bode ill for the dollar.
When a current account deficit runs persistently above 5 percent of gross domestic product, it is a reliable signal of financial trouble to come. That is most true in developed countries, where these episodes are rare, and concentrated in crisis-prone nations such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The US current account deficit is now close to that 5 per cent threshold, which it has broken only once since 1960. That was during the dollar’s downswing after 2001.
Nations see their currencies weaken when the rest of the world no longer trusts that they can pay their bills. The US currently owes the world a net $18tn, or 73 per cent of US GDP, far beyond the 50 per cent threshold that has often foretold past currency crises.
Finally, investors tend to move away from the dollar when the US economy is slowing relative to the rest of the world.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
All this is due to the members of Traitorjoe’s kakistocracy giving aid and comfort to the enemies of the United States.
This will truly rock this nation. No more creating free money we don’t have. We won’t be able to support the welfare system.
>>No more creating free money we don’t have. We won’t be able to support the welfare system.<<
A few months ago, the debt clock showed $34.6 Trillion national debt. Today it shows $30.7 Trillion. The debt clock is being manipulated.
That same time period, unfunded liabilities, (SS, medicare, medicaid) clocked in at $164 Trillion...now a few months later it is showing $171 Trillion unfunded liabilities.
Your post I believe is an accurate statement.
“The US currently owes the world a net $18tn, or 73 per cent of US GDP, far beyond the 50 per cent threshold that has often foretold past currency crises.”
Not to mention the other $12+ trillion we owe our own people, putting us at 130% of GDP. Not to mention the additional trillions owed for Social Security and Medicare.
Must be an unseen war between the bankers (who need to raise interest rates) and the Treasury (who cannot allow interest rates to go up). But the bankers always win. No one can stop this.
Let me clutch my pearls!
Just make sure to re-elect Donald Trump!
The end of the World's Reserve Currency is nigh! OH NOs!
a falling dollar will turn around US trade flows just as the US is learning to manufacture stuff again.
The only thing that has prevented this thus far are:
1) The US (and UK) military, and
2) The fact that all the other currencies are also in a race to the bottom.
My opinion is that we will have to see a worldwide financial collapse first, and then some kind of new currency, either digital or commodity basket (gold silver etc) based. They will certainly try the former, but I hope for the latter.
We will see. Right now I am short equities.
Which currency is going to replace it? That’s the big problem with this argument. The euro-zone has far more issues than the US (and the energy issues are just getting started there), as does China, and China isn’t trustable at all. In the past when currencies have fallen and been replaced there has been a very identifiable replacement - The Pound for the Real, the Dollar for the Pound. There is no even semi-apparent replacement for the Dollar and so this argument falls apart.
The meager savings young folks get from the school loan forgiveness will get eaten up by the destruction of the dollar.
They should take their $150 a month and buy gold.
There is a third reason - no other currency - except perhaps the Euro- is large enough to be the reserve currency - and the Euro zone has far, far more problems than the US does short and long term. I would not bet on financial collapse - keep in mind harsh recessions and depressions strengthen currencies and without that they will continue to inflate their way out of things to a large degree, a defacto undeclared tax.
Predicting currency moves is not easy. None of the conditions cited here for this impending collapse are news to anyone, and the same arguments could have been, and were, made before this huge $ rally. We are lucky to live in a great country, where the wealth is not just the value of the stock market, but the ability of the land and the people to create value over and over again.
We owe 18 trillion to foreign countries. They owe us 7 trillion. So we really are 11 trillion behind on foreign debt.
How dumb is it to say there is any liabilities in SS, Medicare or Medicaid. It’s a pay as you go system. There is no liabilities unless you count each month that money comes in and then goes out. That’s the way it works. Counting money to be given out 50 years from now doesn’t make sense.
We have over 164 quadrillion in assets. We will never bankrupt.
At the link, we see that both Federal Spending and the Federal Budget Deficit are decreasing.
Has been for months and months.
Interesting times we live in.
I believe BRICS+ is the right idea, and the US is currently on the wrong side. Our fiat dollar will crash, and we will be forced to something BRICS+ or BRICS+like, precious-metals backed. NESARA/GESARA will makes it’s entrance, to bring about their final two letters: “Recovery Act”.
Actually the US gov only owes $7.5T to foreign countries. I’m not sure where the $18T cited in the article comes from but must include business debt and other debt instruments, and perhaps includes all international investments (including into stocks and real estate) which isn’t a debt at all.
Thank you. That’s even better. I have felt better about the debt that we all even though it’s 30 trillion most to ourselves. Because we have 156 quadrillion dollars worth of assets. If things get really bad we just sell stuff.
Like farmland to the CCP?
Isn’t that being done now?
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