The New Politics of Bifurcation

The 2022 election grows more mysterious by the day. Republicans enter this cycle with the wind at their backs: President Biden is unpopular, voters say we are in a recession, Democratic majorities are razor-thin, and midterms favor the opposition party. The issue set—inflation, border security, crime, and the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan—is well-suited for Republican candidates. Many Democrats are retiring. GOP voters are enthusiastic. And did I mention the president is unpopular?

Yet Democrats are increasingly bullish about their electoral prospects. They have closed the gap with Republicans on the congressional generic ballot and lead the GOP for the first time this year. They are even or tied with Republicans in (admittedly spotty) polling averages of seven marquee Senate races. Since June 24, when the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade and restored abortion law to the political sphere, Democrats have outperformed their expected margins in special elections. The reversal of Roe has mobilized an important Democratic constituency: voters, especially women, with high levels of educational attainment. On August 2, Kansans dealt pro-life forces a setback by defeating a referendum that would have forbidden state judges from reading abortion rights into the state constitution. On August 23, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a closely watched congressional special election in New York. Ryan staked his campaign on preserving abortion rights. Molinaro focused on inflation. Voters had a clear-cut choice between the two parties' messages. Abortion won.

On August 23, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a closely watched congressional special election in New York. Ryan staked his campaign on preserving abortion rights. Molinaro focused on inflation. Voters had a clear-cut choice between the two parties' messages. Abortion won.

Nonsense!

The Dems won this seat by 12 point in 2020.

The Dems won this seat by 2 points this time.

That's a swing of 10 points away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans in blue NYS.

Good luck with that in Nov., everywhere, Dems.

I love how overly confident many of my fellow freepers are about the upcoming November election.

Does anyone remember, way, way back into ancient election history ... way, way back to the year ........... 2020? Yep. That's right. Republicans were so certain the hugely successful & hugely popular President Trump was a total shoo-in for reelection against the senile Sleepy Democrat puppet who hid in his basement for almost his entire election "campaign." Trump's gonna easily win the election, quite possibly in a huge landslide! American voters realize the senile, almost 80-year-old Sleepy Joe obviously doesn't have the energy to get the U.S. out of the Covid pandemic, the recession, the national lockdown, our new Cold War with Communist China leaders, etc.

BAM! They declared senile Sleepy Joe "the most popular President in U.S. history" because he "earned more than 81 Million votes!"

I'll bet maybe 0.0000002020% of the overly confident Republican and conservative base ever predicted, three months before the election, that all of that was going to happen.

So I'm mildly amused by the extremely high level of confidence by some of my fellow freepers that the Republican politicians are going to very easily take back the Senate & House in November. LOL.

My basic point being that Democrat/RINO politicians & their political operatives obviously know how to pull out all the stops to unexpectedly and shockingly win lots of elections across the country. In contrast, Republican and conservative politicians clearly do not. In comparison to Democrat/RINO politicians, Republican and conservative politicians have shown themselves to be horrible at creating and effectively delivering a clear message that American voters can understand.

Remember the 2020 Stolen Election. It was just 21 months ago. I'm voting Republican as usual but I just don't understand how some of my fellow freepers are so hugely confident in Republicans taking back both the House & the Senate.

And everyone knows the Democrat/RINO politicians' message 24/7, straight through the November election, will be "Trump's a treasonous traitor and my Republican/conservative opponent supports Trump's treasonous, traitorous ways! Vote for me and all Democrats/RINOs to save American freedom & democracy!" Meanwhile, Republican/conservative politicians are responding with: "We need to reduce some taxes and spending, strengthen the military, make america great again, and do some govt streamlining." (Yeah, that political message worked real well in 2020.)

I can only imagine the upcoming debates:

Democrat/RINO candidate: "In the past, you've sided with the treasonous traitor Trump. So I ask my Republican/conservative opponent a simple yes or no question - Was the 2020 Election stolen? Yes or No?"
Republican/conservative candidate: "Um, uh, well, it's difficult to say. There may have been some election irregularities that maybe someone could possibly look into and, um, uh ..."
Democrat/RINO: "Yes or No? Was the election stolen? Yes or no?"
Republican/conservative: "Uh, uh, you see, um, well, ..."
Democrat/RINO: "So you're saying the 2020 Election was stolen!"
Republican/conservative: "No, I'm not saying that but I do believe ..."
(Probably left-wing) Moderator: "Ok, thanks, I'm glad you at least both agree the 2020 Election was not stolen and was the 'fairest and most secure election in American history.' That's the end of the debate. Viewers, be sure to mail in your voting ballots ASAP!"

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