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“Deteriorating Situation” Shows Rent Growth “Collapsing” In Sunbelt Markets
ZUBU Brothers: Market Knowledge Services ^ | 08/06/2022 | Tyler Durden

Posted on 08/06/2022 10:54:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The housing and renting market continues to teeter on the brink, and the newest incoming data doesn't offer up any clear signs of stabilization. In fact, new data continues to suggest the opposite: that volatility in housing could only be beginning...and that we're going to have plenty of fodder on deflation, which we have talked about frequently, invoking the effects of a "reverse bullwhip" on the economy.

A new report from Apartments.com examining multifamily rent growth trends for July 2022 shows that the Sunbelt markets are set up for what is being called a "a significant collapse of demand" heading into the back half of 2022.

Sunbelt cities, which had previously "dominated the top 10 rent growth markets in July with eight out of 10 located within the region" are now setting up for the fastest pullback.

Palm Beach is singled out as an example. The city has seen year over year asking rents falling from growth of 30.6% to now just 12.7% at the end of July 2022. Tampa and Las Vegas have also seen double digit pullbacks in rent.

Jay Lybik, National Director of Multifamily Analytics, CoStar Group, who owns Apartments.com, stated: “Throughout the month of July, while multifamily yearly rents continued to perform well above historical averages, the deceleration of rent growth quickened at a time when markets typically post their best results."

He continued: "The deteriorating rent situation highlights a significant collapse of demand in the sector when new unit deliveries are projected to hit 230,000 in the second half of 2022.”

Over in the utopia brewing on the West Coast, places like San Francisco are bucking that trend. Rents in San Fran are just $18 below their all time peak of $3,116 that they set in Q2 2019, the report says. Rents were actually up by 40 bps over the last 30 days to grow 5%.

We'll see how long that lasts...

Overall, however, the rental picture is "deteriorating", according to the release:

Analysts have found that, looking sequentially, 12 markets saw absolute asking rents decline over the past month, the first occurrence since 2020. Miami led the charge with average asking rents down $11 during July, in addition to five markets that reported no change in rents over the last 30 days.

The stark reversal for Sunbelt markets can be seen vividly in the month over month chart. Markets that saw negative or flat rent growth in July are dominated by Sunbelt locations, including Fort Lauderdale, Austin, Orlando, Charlotte and Tampa, amongst others.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: housing; realestate; realty; rent; rentals; sunbelt
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FROM THE ARTICLE: Sunbelt markets are set up for what is being called a "a significant collapse of demand" heading into the back half of 2022.

So, if there is no demand for rentals, where are people planning to live? I don't believe people are buying.

1 posted on 08/06/2022 10:54:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

How to Live in Your Car

https://www.wikihow.com/Live-in-Your-Car#:~:text=1%20Find%20a%20suitable%20car.%20You%20can%20only,lock%20and%20use%20it%21%20Why%20so%20essential%3F%20


2 posted on 08/06/2022 10:59:41 PM PDT by RomanSoldier19 (Res ad Triarios venit)
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To: SeekAndFind

In times of uncertainty, people tend to.hunker down.

People are less optimistic under Biden and less willing to take a chance on a move away from their safety net.

New housing starts are slowing, as well.


3 posted on 08/06/2022 11:00:15 PM PDT by TheWriterTX (Trust not in earthly princes....!)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is actually a good thing for the “little” people.

It means Rents should be collapsing as well. Lower Rents are good for the Renters.


4 posted on 08/06/2022 11:00:22 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: SeekAndFind

Also, more young people are living in with mom and dad to save money instead of launching.


5 posted on 08/06/2022 11:01:38 PM PDT by TheWriterTX (Trust not in earthly princes....!)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is about the rate of growth of rents. They’re still expected to increase at over 12%, which is higher than inflation.


6 posted on 08/06/2022 11:23:29 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("...that all the donkeys were dead. I know nothing as to the fate of the less valuable animals)
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To: VanShuyten
They’re still expected to increase at over 12%, which is higher than inflation.

Higher than REPORTED inflation. If you spend your money on things like groceries and gasoline, inflation has been a LOT more than 12%.
7 posted on 08/06/2022 11:37:59 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (What was 35% of the Rep. Party is now 85%. And it’s too late to turn back—Mac Stipanovich )
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To: Dr. Sivana

Being alive is just plain expensive!


8 posted on 08/06/2022 11:49:20 PM PDT by avenir (Information overload = Pattern recognition)
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To: SeekAndFind

I see a lot of places in that list where no sane person would ever want to live.

9 posted on 08/07/2022 12:15:36 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Fox News is CNN-Lite)
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To: SeekAndFind
...Palm Beach is singled out as an example. The city has seen year over year asking rents falling from growth of 30.6% to now just 12.7% at the end of July 2022...

So a collapse means that rent is only increasing at 12.7% every year.

In my entire life there has never been a year where my salary increased by 12.7%.

10 posted on 08/07/2022 12:45:51 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: SoConPubbie
My county tax assessor has no problem jacking up assessed values 37% to 54% this year to increase property tax revenue. I'm still waiting to get clarity on what the new annual tax assessment is going to be. I would like the information sooner than later so I can make the rent adjustment in time to collect the new 6 month increment. The property tax increase is going directly to a rent increase. The increased valuation is also going to require adjustment of the fire and liability insurance. That's going to the rent as well.

I would prefer to keep my reliable renter in place...especially with the loss of the SALT deductions on my federal taxes.

11 posted on 08/07/2022 12:55:45 AM PDT by Myrddin
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To: Dr. Sivana

Just at Fry’s tonight. Family size box of Corn Flakes was $5.99 when it was always $4.99. That’s a 20% increase. Dry dog food is 50% higher. Most of the grocery items I regularly buy are 15-20% more than a year ago, unless they’re on sale. To hear the “experts” say inflation is around 9% just blows my mind.


12 posted on 08/07/2022 1:29:05 AM PDT by Prince of Space (Let’s Go, Brandon! )
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To: Prince of Space

Note that the cereal box is twice as thin with less volume as well.


13 posted on 08/07/2022 1:47:20 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose GOD is the LORD. - Psalm 33:12)
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To: TheWriterTX
We know people who are FLEEING from Calif. to Florida, and they can't find a home to buy, so they will rent for a year.

Housing starts are down because of Higher interest rates and the BIDEN RECESSION!!

14 posted on 08/07/2022 3:53:00 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I am not sure that “rent growth collapsing” necessarily means a collapsing of demand. It may justs be that people can’t afford the rent at existing levels. So they may be moving in with parents, friends or seeking out roommates. But if rent because more affordable, they would strike out on their own.

If rents consistently outpace wage increases, something has to give.


15 posted on 08/07/2022 4:17:43 AM PDT by rbg81
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To: Prince of Space

Yup. Our plumber has increased his house call fee by 33% in the last year. Our garbage collection is over 50% as well, likely due to diesel costs.


16 posted on 08/07/2022 4:19:23 AM PDT by rbg81
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To: SeekAndFind

th wordage is very irritating
.........

‘growth’ really means...
monthly rent increase

or something else?

please be specific


17 posted on 08/07/2022 4:38:47 AM PDT by RockyTx
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To: TheWriterTX

Not necessarily the young people’s faults - many have simply been priced out of the market.


18 posted on 08/07/2022 4:48:21 AM PDT by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m renting because I’m not sure whether I’ll be able to continue to work remotely or not. If so, I can buy a house anywhere. If not, I need to be within commuting distance. Also, house prices here in Charlotte have exploded in the last two years. They’re up about 50% in that time. Rent has also gone up about 20-25% in the last year. I notice a lot of people are moving further away in response because they just can’t afford the increased rent. There are a lot of vacancies in the nicer/trendier rental properties you did not see a year or two ago.

I think we’ve reached the end of the rent hikes. The market is signaling it simply will not bear any more. Less rent than they wanted still beats units being vacant long term. The same thing is happening with house prices here. The increases have stopped. I think at some point the bubble has to burst and real estate will have to give back some of the insane price increases of the last couple years. Inflation is crushing people’s income.


19 posted on 08/07/2022 5:14:19 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: SeekAndFind

You can always live in your van and meet hawt wimen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4QQTfIvzv4

Then again, every nomad need roots and a piece of land
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpZm8Jf7t5A


20 posted on 08/07/2022 5:31:34 AM PDT by Steven Tyler
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