Posted on 07/25/2022 3:25:40 PM PDT by delta7
The war in Ukraine is in its sixth month, and there’s no end in sight. Here’s what we know…
Almost everything you heard about the war in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April and May was a lie.
You heard that Putin was losing the war. You heard that Russians had poor training and low morale and were deserting in droves. You heard that Ukrainians were destroying Russian armor in large numbers to blunt the Russian advance.
None of this was true. In fact, Russian troops have achieved major victories in Mariupol, Kherson, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and other key targets that control rivers, ports and junctions in Ukraine.
U.S. Willing to Fight Russia to the Last Ukrainian
This article isn’t about strategy and I don’t want to get too deeply into the weeds, but Russia’s next targets are Slovyansk and Bakhmut, which will consolidate Russia’s control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Russia has also deployed anti-drone laser systems that have neutralized Ukraine’s ability to target Russian positions with drones. The endgame is the takeover of Odessa, which would give Russia control of 100% of Ukraine’s coastlines along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.
A negotiated settlement that cedes Russian control over Crimea and the Russian-speaking parts of eastern Ukraine is probably the most realistic solution available to end the war. But the U.S. doesn’t want the war to end. Its plan is to wear Russia down through a protracted conflict, no matter how much the Ukrainian people suffer.
The battlefield situation aside, the story is even worse from the U.S. perspective…
Blowback!
Russia is not just winning the war on the ground. It’s winning the global financial and economic war launched by Biden and our European allies.
Russia’s revenues from oil and natural gas exports are at all-time highs. The Russian ruble is much stronger today than it was when the war began. China and India are buying all the Russian oil that Europe is refusing to buy.
Meanwhile, the economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very near to recession. Inflation is out of control in the West. Commodity shortages will lead quickly to food shortages and more empty shelves in supermarkets.
Across the board, Biden’s economic sanctions have backfired and are hurting the U.S. and Europe far more than they are hurting Russia.
Not Pro-Russian, But Pro-Truth
I’ve been reporting honestly on the war since the beginning. My readers have not been misled by false reporting because I’ve been candid about the real impact of sanctions and Russia’s brutal but effective battlefield tactics.
It’s not that I’m pro-Russian — I’m not. I’m pro-truth. And I don’t defend the Russian invasion in any way (although I do understand it).
Even Bloomberg and The New York Times are now starting to admit that the war is a lost cause for Ukraine and the U.S. economy is suffering from sanctions aimed at Russia. But it’s a little late for legacy media to get their story straight.
What we know right now is the economic damage to the U.S. economy will get much worse before the economy gets better. Biden won’t stop the sanctions soon. That means the trashing of the U.S. economy will continue.
Meanwhile, Russia is “temporarily” shutting down the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline to Germany for repairs. Of course, the temporary shutdown may become permanent. It’s just more proof that U.S.-led sanctions only hurt the U.S. and Europe, not Russia.
Failed Sanctions Against Russia May Actually Lead to Other Wars
Here’s another potentially dangerous side effect of the failed sanctions campaign against Russia:
Economic sanctions may now facilitate war instead of preventing or stopping it. Why? Because U.S. sanctions on Russia are a complete failure. Nations considering invasions that might have been deterred because of sanctions threats may now feel emboldened and that they can proceed with confidence.
How this new dynamic plays out in hotspots like the Taiwan Strait remains to be seen. But it would be deeply ironic if sanctions actually encouraged China to move against Taiwan.
These are the sorts of issues that should be thoroughly thought through before action is taken. But our political leaders are incapable of thinking even one move ahead.
The U.S. has already committed about $56 billion to assist Ukraine, which will likely turn out to be a very poor investment. But American taxpayers might be fleeced even more…
Give Us More Money!
The prime minister of Ukraine has calmly asked an international conference for $750 billion of assistance to rebuild Ukraine after the war. Nice try. There are a few problems with this. First of all, there will be no Ukraine to rebuild, at least not in its current form.
Russia will take somewhere between a third and half the country and keep it. The parts that Russia is taking control of include the industrial nexus, the largest natural resource deposits and the most fertile land. Russia will be able to finance the reconstruction of their conquests using the very industrial capacity, mining and agricultural output they have captured.
Russia will also control the ports and major rivers and will be able to tax the remainder of Ukraine for access. The gradual result will be a prosperous part of Ukraine controlled by Russia and a desperately poor part of Ukraine left to the corrupt oligarchs under Zelenskyy.
You’re on the Hook to Rebuild Ukraine
When asked how Ukraine will finance the $750 billion demanded, the prime minister said they could use assets seized from Russian oligarchs. But that’s ridiculous. There may be $5 billion or $10 billion in yachts and townhouses, but nothing close to $750 billion.
The truth is that this money will be expected to come from the U.S. and the EU, either directly or indirectly through the World Bank and the IMF. In other words, you are going to pay for it one way or the other. Of course, most of the money would end up in the hands of corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs.
It’s unlikely much reconstruction will get done anyway because Ukraine has long been a money-laundering operation for the benefit of U.S. politicians including the Clintons, Bidens and Obamas.
That’s something to bear in mind when your taxes start going up to “help” Ukraine.
Regards,
Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning
Can’t wait for the Uki flag wavers
“Russia will take somewhere between a third and half the country and keep it.”
So you admit it. Russia’s war on Ukraine is a naked grab for territory and resources, a violation of another country’s sovereignty. Innocent Ukrainians raped, tortured and murdered by vladolf’s orcs, just because they can. And you think it’s wonderful, and correct, and should continue.
How many rubles are you earning for pushing this crap on FR, vatnik?
The globalists are loving this Slavic death fest. It erodes further Western culture. Notice that the UN, the Vatican and the Peace Now groups are not offering to sponsor peace talks or even making the pretense of trying to mediate the conflict. The only disappointment for the globalists thus far is that the US is not at war with Russia.
We don’t have to rebuild any of it if Russia could just take the whole thing over.
New tag line: U.S. Willing to Fight Russia to the Last Ukrainian
When a writer claims large numbers of Russian armor was not destroyed, and it did not blunt the Russian advance, their credibility is placed in question.
Advice for the war cheerleaders...
No Freeper I know of supports putting boots on the ground for either side. Well, except for one pro-Russian poster who seemed to think the CIA should off Zelenskyy because reasons.
“Not Pro-Russian, But Pro-Truth”
This guy gets it.
How many rubles are you earning for pushing this crap on FR, vatnik?
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I am posting a US legendary Financial great’s assessment. I take it you are a Ukie war cheerleader? If so, I take it you have also been vaxed, bought into the Covid vax hoax also? Fool me once, fool me twice….wake up, it pays to seek out both sides.
A good article.
Someone posted a story here several days ago (I cannot find it with the search) that talked about how neither side wants the war to end.
Ukrainian leadership gets billions from the west and they are asking something like $750 billion to rebuild. Much of that money will wind up in their pockets, not with Ukrainian citizens.
Russia does not want this to stop because they intend on building a multipolar world, and they said so at the beginning of the war. By forcing Europe and the United States to spend money they do not have Russia can remove the financial ability of the west to effectively wage more wars.
So it seems it’s a game of who can financially outlast whom.
We don’t have to rebuild any of it if Russia could just take the whole thing over.
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Not happening, West Germany was set back two decades “ reuniting ‘ eastern Germany, South Korea same- they don’t need a basket case of a nation to feed, house, rebuild… fact is much chatter lately about the EU carving up post war Ukraine, Poland gets their historical territory, Romania and Hungary also gets theirs.
Vlad keeps his historic Russian territory, that leaves a small piece to the ethnic Ukies. Sounds good to me.
A good article.
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Rickards is a legendary billionaire, connections all over the globe, he made his $ by common sense investing- and investing in “ truth”.
I am not a military expert by any means, but if Russia has not achieved its goals five months after it has invaded Ukraine, I just can not see it as a sign of Russian military expertise or glory.
This is not to say that Russia can’t or won’t take over as much of Ukraine as it wants, but I have to believe the cost has much higher than Putin ever expected.
It shouldn’t be either our circus or our monkeys but Clinton did promise Ukraine help when they gave up their nukes.
That sounds like a nice compromise.
bookmarked
Russia can remove the financial ability of the west to effectively wage more wars.
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You missed one fact, China/ Russia/ India, most of SA and Africa are now in alliance. Vegetable head’s weaponizing the USD and his sanctions suicided the west. Why is the West so intent on committing suicide?
….gay marriage, Trans LGXYZ’s, boys in girls bathrooms, men in woman’s sports, unchecked immigration, …it is ironic China,Russia , and India is our only hope left against that immoral, suicidal agenda.
I am not a military expert by any means, but if Russia has not achieved its goals five months after it has invaded Ukraine, I just can not see it as a sign of Russian military expertise or glory.
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You are obviously not a military expert or historian. Check your history, Vietnam, Korea, WW2, “the war on terror”, French Indo China, Algeria, etc….then realize the sheer size of Ukraine, …..
This will help you out:
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