Posted on 07/14/2022 12:21:26 PM PDT by Red Badger
Shifts in the demographics of the two parties' supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time.
The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.
Why it matters: Democrats' hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party's coalition. Democrats' theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters.
Even small inroads with Hispanic voters could tip a number of Democratic-held swing seats to the GOP.
What the data show: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll out this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.
An NBC News poll in April found Democrats held a 38-point lead among women with college degrees — up from 10 points from 2010. Democrats lost ground with nearly every other demographic group tested in the survey.
Nearly every House pickup in the 2020 election came from a woman or non-white challenger. The GOP's ability to win back a House majority this year rests on the success of candidates breaking the party’s typical mold.
What's happening: Democratic strategists say the party's biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters.
Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets. Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime.
Hispanics living on the U.S.-Mexico border are more likely to favor tougher border security measures that Republicans have championed.
The recall of liberal school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco was fueled by disillusioned Asian-American Democrats.
Between the lines: Add the reality of growing inflation and worries of recession, and you see why Democrats are losing ground with a core part of their coalition.
Wealthier Americans aren’t feeling the day-to-day hardship hitting the working class.
This week's Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy.
Reality check: Suburban districts still make up the majority of congressional battlegrounds, and the GOP’s Trumpified brand remains a threat to limit their gains.
Republican candidates holding extreme views on abortion or echoing Trump’s election lies are still toxic in the suburbs.
Since the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, Democrats have made small gains in national polls.
The bottom line: The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.
My takeaway: women with college degrees can’t figure out that Democrats want to let illegal aliens enter the country in mass numbers with no police to protect them from criminals and allow men in their children’s restrooms/locker rooms?
Having a college degree doesn’t equate to intelligence and certainly not common sense.
These women with college degrees, aren’t thinking that way.
They are prisoners of a liberal mindset, so that, they think :
1. we have to allow illegal aliens to prove we are compassionate and liberal to illegals. Illegals come here for a better life, etc.
2. they believe in the black lives matter business and think police will be there to protect them, even if we defund police forces. IT’s a disconnect in thinking but they want to believe that black lives matter and police brutality is that bad against minorities.
3. They believe in the liberal view that “transsexual” women, men who claim to be female, are women and should be allowed in locker rooms and restrooms for women. They think it’s discrimination to think otherwise.
Just in general, liberals look at issues differently than the rest of us do. They have a fear of being called discriminatory or bigoted if they don’t follow the activist line on any issue.
From the article:”This week’s Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy.”
Affluent voters may very well care about the economy as the stock market continues to tumble and inflation soar under the Biden misadministration. Jimmy Carter is grinning that he is now only the Third Worst President, after Biden and Obama.
The Democrats seem to have forgotten history. The South used to be pretty solidly Democrat. It changed over the years to be Republican. Going back the other way is due to people moving in from other parts of the country- the natives aren’t changing.
I think that shift had nothing to do with racism; it had to do with values and economics.
The more radical the left gets, the more people they lose.
They have what I characterize as a bento box mentality.
All of their mutually contradictory ideas are neatly walled off in their own little compartments.
The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.
s/b
The big picture: Republicans continue to be working class and continue to ignore virtue signaling about race, gender, climate, etcetera. Democrats are a collection of violent, rival street gangs, and are losing control of the media narrative.
“Republican candidates holding extreme views on abortion or echoing Trump’s election lies are still toxic in the suburbs.”
Well, let the suburbs tie themselves to the sinking ships that are the big Democrat cities, and we’ll see how that works out for them.
More like: one no longer has to learn critical thinking skills to earn a college degree.
This should be a gimme for conservatives.
The Democrat party is for Abortion, Gay activism, grooming children, High gas prices, Trangender men in girls bathrooms, and ‘climate change’ idiocy, letting criminals out without bail, and the ‘Liberal World Order’ (they finally said the quiet part out loud)
What’s there to like about them anymore? The free stuff is not that attractive when you are paying enormous inflation and interest rates, and you and your children’s future is threatened on many fronts.
“Just in general, liberals look at issues differently than the rest of us do. They have a fear of being called discriminatory or bigoted if they don’t follow the activist line on any issue.”
They also believe that they’re far more intelligent than anyone who doesn’t agree with their views. They ignore history and empirical evidence. They believe they are the self-appointed saviors for problems that do not really exist
The problem is the realignment came too late and now voter fraud has baked the win in for the Democrats.
Yes, and the blacks are moving our way too, though MUCH more slowly than the Latinos.
AOC is proof of that.
But the radicals are the base, the ones who do the work, so they can’t offend them.
“one no longer has to learn critical thinking skills to earn a college degree.”
That, started happening about 3+ decades ago when many give away degrees became IUD’s: Instant Unemployment Degrees!
Not that race or ethnicity should make a difference in voting patterns, demographics are a cruel master. US white population percentage in 1950 was 92% Fast forward to 2020,it was 54%. Coalitions will have to change.
Meanwhile, what’s left of the GOP in New Jersey seems stuck on kissing up to college educated suburban Karens. Of course, it doesn’t help that Hispanic turnout of any type is quite low in NJ.
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